This topic was automatically opened after 22 hours.
me when the flavour text makes no sense
@Jane has died! They were:
Trifalgar D. Water Law
“You can’t see the whole picture until you look at it from the outside.”
You are Trifalgar D. Water Law, the Surgeon of Death, and a character from One Piece, but you knew that already. Thanks to the power of the Ope Ope no Mi Devil Fruit, you have gained unparraleled surgical ability within your “operating room”. As a consequence, you are the Town Limited 3-shot Doctor.
- Manipulation of The Room (Day) » - Once per game, choose a player voting a player in the Operating Theatre. All votes on the Dark Votecount will be removed from them. - 1 use.
- Operating Aura (Night) » - Only usable on Night 1, and must be used when possible. Choose up to seven other players. You will not be seen visiting those players, and this ability cannot be blocked or redirected. Those players will be in the Operating Theatre for the rest of the game. - 1 use.
- Perennial Youth Operation (Night) » - Choose a player in the Operating Theatre. Heal them. - 3 uses.
You win with the Town.
Eliminate all Mafia.
@SirDerpsAlot has died! They were:
Yashiro Isana“fucking weeeeeeb lmao” - me, 2 minutes ago
You are Yashiro Isana, the Silver King, and a character whose wiki page looks like it was randomly generated from anime tropes. I mean, come on. “Immortal, amnesiac protagonist who secretly has a germanic name with absurd powers with a connection to something called the Dresden Slate”? As a consequence, you are the Mafia Conditional Strongwilled Gravitator.
- Anime (Passive) » - You are a Darkvoter.
- Inviolability (Passive) » - The first two times you target a player with more than 1 vote on the Dark Votecount for use of a non-killing ability, you cannot be roleblocked or redirected. The action can still be blocked by other means.
- Gravity Manipulation (Night) » - Choose another player. At the end of the following day, their regular vote will be substituted for their current Darkvote. - Infinite uses, cannot be used two nights in a row.
You win with the Mafia.
Achieve Parity with the Town.
Marluxion is still poisoned!
Day 5 begins, and will end in 48 hours.
You may now post.
1 Like
Gorta is effect neutral/ability rebel (a.k.a. exactly where he should be, middle of the bottom row)
You should kill me today and Marshal tomorrow
So, I’m writing this overnight while in the unique position of being pretty confident in who the last wolf is, and also pretty confident that no one is going to believe me. I’m writing this wallpost for a couple reasons, first of all to explain why the last wolf is just her, and second of all to convince you to actually kill her, after killing me, which it is probably optimal to do first.
I’m going to divide this up into a few sections:
- why Marshal isn’t actually mechclear
- why Marshal is Just A Wolf
- why it’s Optimal to kill me today/why I’m not fighting it
- why you should sheep my read on Marshal once I die, rather than just ignoring it
- FAQ (the questions aren’t actually frequently asked obviously, I’m just guessing at the questions that you’re going to ask and trying to answer them in advance)
Apologies in advance for how long this post is. You don’t have to read the whole thing if you don’t want to, as long as you’re willing to listen to the overall point that I’m making. (On the other hand, if you don’t read the post and then also don’t do what I’m asking, I will be annoyed.)
Marshal isn’t mechclear
Okay so, a thing that I noticed when I was looking through kat’s Iso is that I’m … pretty confident that she didn’t actually take an action N2. Like, I know that she, the flipped town parity cop, literally said “marshal and chloe are the same alignment,” but when I was looking through her D3 Iso I found a bunch of things that point to this not actually being true.
kat’s treatment of Marshal is not consistent with her having a ~greencheck on her
So, if we start from the assumption that kat had a parity check between Chloe and Marshal, there are some things we would expect to see. For instance, we’d expect to see kat maintaining a townread on Marshal on D3, we’d expect kat to not be questioning Marshal’s alignment on D3, we’d expect that when it comes up/is relevant kat would be pretty consistently defending her. There are also things we wouldn’t expect to see. For example, we wouldn’t expect to see kat questioning Marshal, or suggesting Marshal could be a wolf, or anything like that.
So how did kat interact with Marshal on D3?
a whole bunch of quotes
(the next several posts show up as sulit posts but they’re actually sulit responding to a katze wallpost)
Disclaimer: these aren’t her only interactions with Marshal, she does also have other posts where she calls Marshal town or gives reasons to townread her. But overall, these aren’t posts you write if you have TMI that someone is V, she repeatedly points out wolfy things that Marshal is doing which doesn’t really make sense if she has a greencheck (or pseudogreen, but she doesn’t ever seem to entertain the idea that Chloe is a wolf, so if she really checked Marshal she wouldn’t be seeing it as a greencheck.
I think the clearest example of this is in the random JoaT claim, where she decided to CC a claim Marshal had made for no clear reason. This … isn’t a post she has any reason to make if she has TMI Marshal is V, like, reactiontesting your greencheck is a meme for a reason and even if we like to make jokes about sucky katze FPSes I don’t really see any reason for her to do that if she knows Marshal is town?
kat’s treatment of her own role suggests that she hadn’t used her check yet
If we look at how she described/talked about her role on D3:
kat talks about her role
So basically, kat implies repeatedly that she can check people N3, implies that she has a specific reason to not want the counterwagon poisoned (but is okay with them being vigged, it’s not just a ‘not wanting Marshal to die’ thing) which is consistent with her not wanting to get a check on someone who proceeds to be poisoned (but being okay with getting a straight-up alignment cop result on someone), and repeatedly asks who she should check. All of these make more sense from a perspective where she hasn’t used her check and wants to be sure nothing messes it up than from a perspective where she has used her check and … just decides to try to argue against poisoning the CW in a thunderdome situation for no reason?
possible objections (and why they’re wrong)
“kat might just be Like That! One time she fakeclaimed a greencheck on someone she had a redcheck on!”
In that game, she had a specific motivation for faking a greencheck (wanting to guarantee that she survived until LyLo in order to lock the game). Here, she was only a 1-shot parity cop, so the motivation for her to act like she doesn’t actually have the check doesn’t exist.
“why would kat say that she parity copped Marshal with Chloe if she didn’t actually do it?”
I honestly am not totally sure, I think she probably didn’t realize people would take it seriously? I don’t have a good answer for why she did it, just the fact that she did it. We know that she claimed two parity checks and at least one is a lie, it’s not like there’s an obvious explanation for that one either.
I do think that she wasn’t expecting to die overnight, and that that’s why she didn’t feel the need to clarify for sure whether or not she actually checked Marshal and Chloe.
why I didn’t bring this up yesterday
Well, first of all, I was doing a pretty bad job of pretending that I hadn’t realized that (that’s what the comment about Doubting Thomas was – the cop in that game had softed a N0 on Thomas when they didn’t have a N0 at all, and Thomas, who was a wolf was miscleared).
But the other thing is – it doesn’t actually matter if the check is real or not, it matters if the check is correct. If Marshal’s a villager, and wolves think she’s confirmed, then they’re forced to kill her. But that only works if she’s a villager, and I don’t think she is, and I’m probably dying tomorrow (well, today, by the time you read this) so I won’t be able to say ‘wow, Marshal sure is non-mech-clear’ later, and you all are unwilling to consider her even in final 3. So. I don’t really have a choice.
On that note, I’m going to talk about why I think she’s a wolf now.
Marshal is a wolf
1. Agenda-pushing
Throughout the game, Marshal has failed to treat various slots in good faith, instead attempting to make them look as bad as possible. This is more consistent with the PoV of a wolf trying to get villagers miseliminated rather than the perspective of a villager trying to actually solve the game.
Examples with how she treated my slot (this isn’t all of them, just a few examples that I thought did a good job of illustrating the general pattern):
she tried to argue that I was Mafia because my pushes were “underwhelming,” despite the fact that neither of our pushes had flipped at that point. I think this indicates that her reads came from a place of TMI in which she was able to anticipate that my pushes were largely incorrect (due to knowing I was pushing villagers e.g. katze) and use that to shade me.
she then proceeded to spam that I was a lost wolf, her entire reasoning for this being that I was defending people that she thought were wolfy. Lost wolf hunting is relatively easy for scum to do because they don’t have TMI on it (I actually think it’s possible she legitimately believed the take) while simultaneously making it comparatively easy to push people who are villagery (since you can argue that e.g. them not having TMI is just because they’re a lost wolf)
and here she explicitly says that my posting is explicitly not pack-wolf-y, but instead of considering the possibility that this was because I was a villager she continues to spam ‘ooo Arete lost wolf!!!’
here she tries to claim that TL was softing Lost Wolf, when I repeatedly asked her to justify this claim she couldn’t, eventually she claimed it had something to do with neighborhoods, but when I looked:
I literally have no idea how a villager concludes that these are lost wolf softs, let alone that TL softed lost wolf 40ish times (even accounting for that to be hyperbole). Marshal is more or less making things up so that she can push me on a flimsy case predicated on the assumption that I’m a lost wolf, which is, like, archetypical agenda, the sort you would use as an example when you’re trying to explain to someone in #feedback-discuss that it’s possible to use social reads.
Here she tries to imply that I wrote a super long post that was devoted to defending Derps, when I call her out on the fact that most of the post wasn’t Derps-related at all she doubles down on it and is like ‘well the post said he was town and the post was long,’ which is a blatant misrepresentation of what I was actually doing (like, the post was long, and one of the things it did was defend Derps, but most of it wasn’t defending him??) I think this looks especially bad if Derps is a wolf, because in that decision she’s trying to distort my actual posts to make me take the fall off of his flip.
her trying to push me for my role was also super gross, I’d basically slipped X-shot and she was pushing me for ‘not being X-shot’ and furthermore she was trying to claim my role made no sense with the claimed powerlevels and completely ignoring the … odd poisoner even bodyguard who can also sometimes be a tracker … like to be clear I’m not saying Night is a wolf, I don’t think Night is a wolf, but that’s way stronger than my role and she just completely ignores that to push her narrative
It wasn’t just me, she was similarly agenda-y in her handling of Zone, that one is honestly hard to specifically show examples of because she didn’t really explain her Zone read ever beyond ignoring my attempts to demonstrate that he was in V-meta, but there were a few posts that were kind of weh:
such as actively avoiding giving Zone any credit for pointing out a thunderdome that caught a wolf
and attempting to discredit the meta argument for townreading him
I think the big thing that’s been preventing people from really acknowledging her agenda is her defense of LHF-y slots e.g. Eli, but that’s pretty easy to do from a perspective of TMI, and it’s fairly common for wolves to defend LHFy players for cred. Her shielding also quite frankly kind of sucks, like EoD2 it basically boils down to ‘don’t kill Eli’ leaves thread ‘oh no you killed Eli, that’s so sad’ rather than making a concerted effort to save PoE villagers.
1.5 Treatment of Derps’s slot
I’m splitting this up from the rest of the agenda system because a lot of it depends on Derps’s alignment but I actually think that her treatment of him has been really bad regardless of his alignment.
If Derps is villager then she’s basically spent the entire game pushing ‘Zone and Derps are wolves, and Arete is a wolf for defending them’ with basically no justification, ignoring anything that might possibly clear either of them, and generally going the entire game without pushing any wolves. Obviously villagers can be wrong, and I realize that I’m going to come across as hypocritical for saying this, but that’s a level of egregiously wrong that I think is unlikely to come from village!Marshal – particularly the choice to completely ignore every reason that was presented to clear either slot.
If Derps is wolf then it’s easy to say “oh she was pushing Derps all game,” but I don’t actually think that’s … true? Like, in worlds where Derps is a wolf, we know that wolves were trying to bus him (Windward), so ‘Marshal also wanted to bus him’ is super plausible. Also, the way she’s been pushing on Derps is really gross and TMI-y, like even though Derps hasn’t flipped, she keeps pushing or clearing people based on how they’ve been interacting with Derps, which is super TMI-y (in particular I kind of got the vibe, especially yesterday, that she was trying to make my posts look as bad as possible in light of a Derps W flip).
2. Lack of progression/justification
Throughout the game, she’s randomly changed her reads in short spans of time with no clear progression and no explanation for what caused them to change. While obviously some reevaluation is normal and good, the lack of explanation + the fact that the switches generally happened without a good reason makes me think it’s just opportunism (and maybe in some cases forgetting what read she was publicly maintaining on a slot??)
Here’s an example with me:
In the span of about an hour, without anything really clearly changing that she explained, she goes from calling me ‘just town’ to calling me a wolf, at the same time as some people (e.g. Marl) started semi-doubting me in the thread. This perspective switch doesn’t make sense from a town PoV as nothing changed except that more people were really actively pushing me.
Here’s a similar example with sulit, this one is honestly really weird to the point that I’m not sure if it’s wolfy but like, she puts litlit dead center in her PoE and then immediately starts defending her for no clear reason? so why was she in her initial immediate PoE in the first place?
she also goes from a 5-person PoE with no Marl to…
…having Marl as the third kill in her PoE, in the span of a couple hundred posts, again for no clear reason? like it’s not like anything really changed with Marl to prompt this
overall her progression doesn’t make sense from a PoV of actually trying to solve the game without TMI, her read changes aren’t prompted by anything natural and a lot of times she jumps on people for opportunistic reasons
3. Associatives
If we look at her interactions with the two dead wolves, there’s nothing clearing, and some things that are actively bad. First of all, with Wind:
Her interactions consist of light shade, refusing to give a read, and then calling her rand. I don’t think this by itself makes her lock wolf (although the refusal to give a read is pretty weh) but it’s definitely not clearing, and the fact that as far as I can tell she literally did not mention Wind at all during EoD1 is pretty bad (I think a villager would have cared about the flashwagon, and Marshal was there for EoD). Wind’s posts interacting with or talking about Marshal are similarly sparse and not very interact-y.
Then with Min/Centuries/PKR you get this post:
Which, like, there’s no reason to make this post as town, even if you’re really confident in the read. The explanation I can think of that makes the most sense is that she was trying to make it look like she didn’t have TMI that Min was scum because ‘why would scum say that’
4. EoD1 in particular
Alright, I’m going to go back to talking about Marshal’s Zone push for a bit. So, Marshal did obviously have her Derps push, which she was going on hard for most of the day, but at the end of the day she suddenly switches to try and get voters on Zone, for some reason?
Like, this is her only post prior to trying to CFD Zone that mentions him at all, in the middle of a readlist:
Then suddenly, 21 minutes before EoD, she starts trying to CFD Zone with no explanation and calling him basically lock Mafia.
Unfortunately we didn’t really have a lot of VCs at the time so I can’t say for sure who the top wagon was at this point, but after going hard on Derps for almost the entire day, she suddenly shifts to ‘actually kill Zone’ despite her LITERAL ONLY MENTION of Zone prior to this point being a single post where she nullreads him. This makes no sense from a village perspective.
As I mentioned before, she also literally doesn’t mention Wind at all during the entire EoD as far as I can tell. I think a villager would care at all if a wolf is being wagoned, whereas a wolf might freeze if they aren’t sure how hard to try and powerwolf/save their partner (normally I wouldn’t expect Marshal to do that, but everyone has days when they play less-than-perfectly).
5. Mechanics/Claim
So, I do think this is the weakest point, but I think the way she handled her roleclaim was not great + some of the other things surrounding it were also not great. Like, she initially roleclaims on mid-D3 after softing it earlier:
Now, I do actually think there could be village motivation for fakeclaiming here. For instance, a villager with a weak role might want to claim a powerful role in order to try and draw the nightkill.
So … she then proceeds to rescind that same day, without an obvious really good reason. Which kind of undermines any benefit from the fakeclaim.
I’m not going to say there’s 100 percent no reason, since it was in response to discussion of whether or not Jane was town, but it wasn’t like Jane was really in any danger, so she could pretty easily have just maintained the claim and rescinded the next day if it didn’t work. But there are also a couple other potential factors:
First, sulit pointed out that Marshal’s roleclaim is way more powerful than most roles (which is true). Rescinding the claim makes sense here from the PoV of a wolf who accidentally claimed a role that was way too strong, since otherwise she would have been kind of boxed in.
I outed as Chronocop. If her role can’t heal/kill, this would have forced her to rescind the claim, since otherwise I could have redchecked her.
Also, on D2, she publicly declared she was healing Chloe in a super obvious say. On N2, all evidence suggests that wolves attacked Chloe. This means one of three things:
- wolves are paying literally zero attention to the thread
- wolves didn’t believe the claim
- wolves had TMI the claim is fake
The first one could really only apply to Derps, maybe a little bit to some of the other people in the thread, and even if Derps is wolf he would have a partner who could notice these things. The second one is … ehhh, maybe, given that Marshal is a known FPSer, but I don’t think it’s really likely? like even if they thought it was probably false I don’t think they would want to risk it. The last one is I think the most likely, obviously there are a handful of other ways it could happen (e.g. a rolecop) but the simplest explanation is the one where she’s Mafia. It’s honestly a bit of a weird play to make for scum as well, since it would implicate her a lot, but she might’ve been planning to use that as an argument (‘why would I kill Chloe after saying I would heal her’).
Anyways this is the weakest point but I think the other ones are sufficient on their own.
Why it’s optimal to kill me today
So this is a situation where I feel like I need to explain what I’m doing. Because – I spend a lot of time arguing that it’s never optimal to die as town, that it’s mechanically optimal to self-pres on anyone who’s not a mechanically confirmed villager. But I also think this situation is a little different?
Like, I am fully aware that I’m in the middle of the PoE, trying to explain why someone widely believed to be mechanically confirmed is a wolf. And … this is a situation where I understand that you would be suspicious of me, I can’t say that that’s totally unreasonable. So instead of spending the next 48 hours attempting to argue why I’m town, I’m going to make my case for why Marshal is a wolf (well, I just did), and I want you to vote me out, and once you’ve seen my flip I want you to kill her. Obviously I would rather you just kill her now but I don’t think it’s reasonable to ask you to trust me that much, if that makes sense.
I’m not going to, like, totally disappear after this post or anything – I’ve made my case, but I’m not going to just ghost the thread, I’ll stick around to talk about it or whatever. I’m not going to try to towncase myself, I don’t care if you think I’m town, I care about what you do tomorrow.
If it’ll make you feel better about killing me, I can post cat pictures or something, but only if you don’t then turn around tomorrow and say ‘well Arete was posting cat pictures, they clearly weren’t taking the game seriously! let’s ignore all their reads!’
Anyways. You should kill me, so that you know that my read is genuine, and so that we don’t have to go through the whole ‘but what if Arete is pushing Marshal in bad faith because they’re a wolf??’ thing.
Why you should listen to me after I die
I’m going to keep this section short, because it’s more-or-less going to be me arguing that my reads are good and you should sheep them, and that’s easy to be really arrogant with. But yeah, realistically, some of you are probably thinking ‘Arete has been wolfsiding all game, why should we trust them?’
The easiest reason I can give is that you can just … read the post, all 5000+ words of it (…I swear I didn’t mean it to be that long), and think about the arguments for yourself. But if that doesn’t convince you, well, I’m not a bad player, I might have been playing badly this game but if you look at my other recentish villa games on this site, like Shortnite or that weird BotF or Clown Fiesta II if you ignore Luna, my reads were pretty on point. Two of my top three scumreads in Shortnite were scum when I died on N3, two of my top three scumreads in Clown Fiesta II were scum on D1, in BotF I subbed in and had the flagbearer wolf PoE’d to a single person in about two hours. I really believe I’m trustable here. (And even in games where my reads are bad at first, like Zelda mash, they tend to get better over the course of the game).
Also, if you kill Marshal and it’s wrong, you get to blame me, whereas if you don’t kill Marshal and it’s correct I get to blame you.
Frequently Asked Questions
“Why are you just self-voting and asking to be killed? Isn’t that anti-town?”
Normally yes, but in this case I’m confident in Marshal being the last wolf, and I do not think I can get her killed while I’m alive, and maybe I can get her killed from beyond the grave.
“I think you’re a wolf, and you’re doing this for [insert your reason here].”
Cool. You know what you should do if you think I’m a wolf? kill me. You know what I want you to do? Kill me (and then Marshal). Funny how that works out.
“This post reminds me of a post you wrote in a wolfgame once.”
You know what you should do if you think I’m a wolf? kill me. You know what I want you to do? Kill me! Wow!
“I’m Marshal, and I think your case on me is wolfy.”
Have fun tomorrow 
“Why are you trying to thunderdome? Thunderdomes are bad.”
Usually yes, but in this case after examining the body of evidence I think this one is justified.
2 Likes
me when I need to write my BA thesis: no thoughts. head empty.
me when I decide to case someone: word count: 5,659
some of that is quotes but
yeah
I’m sorry
1 Like
