Ritual Mafia IV -- Spectator Chat

I’m building off of Wazza v on n2 which is shaky

Shaman - Marshal (soul w/ Katze)
Shaman
Seer

That’s what existed on n2

Its just the Marshal’s supposed vote on Kat during Ritual phase that bothers me. I’m not going to give up a possibility of Kat being town of course, it just strikes me as odd.

Also, we know for a fact that Vulgard was occupied N1 (he could not investigate his target), and Shaman cannot occupy. I know this is mechanical deducing which is subpar but… Something doesn’t add up, I think.

That’s because of Diviner’s passive, tracking Diviner is always a fool’s errand:

The Diviner

Congregation Investigative
Undercover (Passive) - You appear as a Seer to all investigative abilities. You will appear to visit whoever the heretics attack each night to the oracle’s “Clairvoyance” (won’t affect other tracking abilities).

So his visit on himself is explained by the fact that he was the one attacked that night.

Good point
Alice is confirmed n2 then

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Yes, this is why I said before that if Marshal is a convert then Alice is outed scum, which doesn’t seem plausible:
Alice claims healing Vulgard N2.
Marshal claimed healing Vulgard N2 too, but Marshal was a Shaman who presumably used Soul Rip:

Soul Rip (Night) - Attack a player, bypassing healing, occupation and redirection. - 1 uses. Counts as the factional kill.

To remove an outed cop from the game. There’s no reason for groupscum Alice to keep her logs like this, which also supports my belief that today, pre-Ritual, Alice was never scum.

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Scum are more often to be in the offensive claims then
Since their abilities failing would explaining why they couldn’t self confirm (and ergo help them)

Our offensives are:
Icibalus – Conjurer;
Gorta – Enchanter;
Kat – Enchanter;
Arete – Blood Mage;
Seth – Blood Mage;
Sulit – Conjurer;
Chloe – Blood Mage.

As you can see this is… an interesting situation.

We actually scumread/suspect, or have at least scumread/suspected at some point… 6 out of 7 offensives.
Icibalus is the only one who screams town out of this list.

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I’d rule out Seth / Ici in terms of starter equity

Icibalus – Conjurer; | Never starting scum
Gorta – Enchanter;
Kat – Enchanter;
Arete – Blood Mage; | Never starting groupscum, possible Traitor
Seth – Blood Mage; | Never starting scum
Sulit – Conjurer;
Chloe – Blood Mage. | Soft-confirmed not starting scum because of Marshal?

Assuming Arete is traitor based off of Marshal’s analysis (which reeks of not knowing if they are actually traitor or not) and their actions, we can remove that from the pool

I’m assuming we have two starting scum still alive at this point.
So based off the remaining players, who do you think has the most compelling case as a team

I’ll acknowledge that none of Wazza’s info was able to be faked under the assumption that him and Chloe are both scum (since scum would know what happened on n2)

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Gorta was scummy D1 but Kyo pressed him quite a bit.
Kyo’s/Kat’s interactions have been strange, somewhere up in this thread there’s a post from Kyo that reads:
“Kat is pure town” (this was on D1, I can grab it if you want me to).
Kyo did not extensively mention Sulit, I think? Most of the game didn’t.

So I think Kyo was never starting scum with Gorta.
Meaning its Kyo/Kat/X or Kyo/Sulit/X if we discredit the idea of Marshal being a starter.

I’d not put that much stock behind this

I’d agree, since Gorta’s ISO and progression being entirely consistent doesn’t jive with the all over the place d2 ritual
Additionally, in order to gain control of thread direction, scum had to have been at least higher posters

Katze starting shaman makes perfect sense since it makes Marshal thunderdoming ritual on d3 actually work

Consider the fact that Katze has been hyperposting this game as possible justification for what’s been going on

The only time this doesn’t work is if Chloe’s N1 was completely fake (Drain blood from Marshal, Kat, Braixen > Blood Elixir > Blood was corrupted, because Amelia/Wazza visited Apprentice and both obviously weren’t killed).

But its most likely true, because we know for a fact that Marshal flipped scum.

So for her N1 to be fake, Marshal would have to be a D2 convert and two others would have to be town.
The problem is, we scumread Kat and we cannot know for sure if Marshal was an actual convert.
This is also one of the reasons why I leaned towards Marshal being the OG Shaman.

+There’s that systematic pressure on Apprentice’s slot from both Kyo and Marshal.
Our main evidence pointing to her slot being scum is the fact that she was never executed (when she should’ve been) but that just… doesn’t add up?

Also I know that this is mechanical talk again but holy hell, this game is riddled with mechanics. Its weird.

Hmm
Fair point

I feel like trying to nail last starter based off this is awkward

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