Apprentice CFD came out of left field
Fact that hasn’t been drilled very hard is probably a bad sign
His whole wagon just dissipated into the thin air and I also recall him saying that Appel is town but voting her regardless (when he didn’t want to vote her previously)? I think there’s no world where he should be left alive right now.
And yeah, Marshal just rescinded that whole thing as RT (he implied that he got converted) but he still claimed Minister after he got caught up in the Blood Mage claim fiesta.
So it would be logical to reveal now? Though it basically guarantees your own death.
Claiming Minister can out the real minister which is very anti EV for town to do
I think they are most likely LW, but after Apprentice the slot needs to die
The thing is, if he doesn’t reveal as Minister himself right now, he is basically scum, isn’t he? The real Minister doesn’t need to out.
Because Marshal’s first BM fakeclaim is out and if he claims that this was a bait too, no one is going to take it seriously. He’s going to get lynched.
I can see a world where Marshal is the Traitor actually. Maybe Kat was right.
Hard agree on App.
Oh and yes, Italy is basically confirmed town now. The catch is that he suicides tonight if they don’t lynch a Heretic.
That’s what is bothering me too because Minister sounds like a last ditch effort fakeclaim and it achieves nothing since lolreveal. It just makes no sense.
If he doesn’t do it then yeah. Maybe his intent was to coast this day but… No that still doesn’t sound right. This would be an atrocious claim.
Preemptive apology for quote spam but alas, this is the best way to do it for spectator chat.
Went to re-check the whole end of the ritual thing and got this:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5949?u=anstreim
Wiisp was seemingly the first person to swtich to Kyo while SDA was debating Arete and Marshal was sticking to Italy, but that tells us nothing – however just a bit below:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5958?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5968?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5980?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5991?u=anstreim
Is it me or all of these sound extremely disingenuous? Maybe I’m looking a bit too hard into it.
Also, just a bit below Kat’s posts Arete switched to Kyo as well, when they were debating CFD to Marshal minutes before. Could be panic decision making, could be possible scum.
Just going to keep it all in mind, here’s the precise post.
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/6007?u=anstreim
Guessing Katze is scum with Kyo
I think Alice’s reasoning for clearing Katze (Kyo put Nap and Katze at same townread level despite the buildup on those reads being entirely different) is faulty since, well, the buildup was different
Moreover Katze’s vote was exactly in ‘thisisscum’ hotspot
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I was about to post my thoughts here but I have kat’s section unfinished let me dump the whole thing and we can discuss it closer.
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Alright, some more belated thoughts/content.
I skimmed over the thread again and I think I’m ready to drop Kat from the nullzone and right into scumleans, for a few reasons.
As I pointed out above – the way that his posts sound completely fake.
Second, I absolutely don’t like his voting and his flailing this game. His indecisiveness reeks of scum and the fact that he hasn’t contributed much is… aggravating. I know that Kat doesn’t give a lot of information early on, but he has provided very little substance overall. This is not a good look.
Wazza’s point on Arete is somewhat convincing – they did contribute to lynching Appel and were amongst the first people to switch to Kyo. I know that Arete’s scum meta is to cause as many mislynches as possible and to lead the town to self-destruction, and so far the narrative fits. They still wouldn’t be my top target to lynch today though, not yet. Going to keep a closer eye on what precisely they do and how they go about doing it, although there are also a few posts/reactions from them that I really do not like.
Last thing on this slot – Arete’s flip-flopping on Vulgard and Vulgard’s flip-flopping on Arete makes me think that they are never W/W together. Arete still isn’t exempt from being the Traitor, however.
Oh and about Wazza – I am basically convinced that he is town after that horrible RT now. I don’t see a world where he is either a Traitor or OG groupscum.
Marshal is in a weird spot once more because he has rescinded his Minister claim as well, and no one really paid attention to it. Not liking that, we are still living in the world where Marshal is one of the prime Traitor candidates. This is also backed up by Apprentice’s claim (if it is indeed real), because Apprentice claimed to collect blood from Marshal/Kat/Braixen (this also somewhat implicated Kat by the way) and use Blood Elixir, but none of his visitors were killed. So if Apprentice flips Congregation, one of these three is guaranteed to be scum and I’m crossing Braixen out right off the bat. Therefore, Marshal/Kat (and I would lean towards Lat more).
After some consideration, I would indeed like SDA to flip after that LW claim (Which he retracted as a ‘meme’? You should never do this as town, period), but Apprentice is still fair game, too. Purely because I believe that Kyo pushing on App could’ve been theatrics, but then again – Kyo also somewhat cleared SDA which is not a good look for him.
What I’m certain about is that there’s never a world where SDA/Apprentice are both starting W/W, but at least one of them is groupscum right now.
Conclusion: I still want Apprentice to die, but I want SDA to die too.
If today’s lynch was dictated by me, I would always choose Apprentice over SDA because his flip provides us with information: if he is Congregation then we have confirmed scum within Kat/Marshal/Braixen, if he is Heretic then, well, one more Heretic down.
Kat.
+I’m still 100 posts off because I got distracted and went to check in on other threads.
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Btw we have three dupe class claims now.
3 Blood Mages: Arete, Apprentice, Seth
3 Conjurers: SDA, Sulit, Wiisp > Amelia
3 Diviners: Appel (dead), Italy, Jgoes > Vulgard
I’m not going to discuss this much but it’s a bit concerning, also apparently Marshal is back to saying that he can mech confirm himself? 
Also I’m still shaky on Alice. Might want to go and re-ISO her but I’m probably not going to reach a conclusion anyway.
A quick look at Kat during Ritual phase that points to him being either scum or LW.
Fair warning: more quote spam below. I wish I could put them in a dropdown but they just become links that way.
Points for LW: when they were still debating sacrificing Italy, there were numerous posts from him where he wanted to be peeked:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/3790?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/3892?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/4345?u=anstreim
Obviously not all but you get the gist of it. There were more below – I don’t think groupscum would be so bold, as to request a check on himself.
Counterpoint: He did start shifting attention to Arete and Derps later on. Still, I don’t think he’d delibirately ask for a peek this way but I wouldn’t put it past him.
Points to being groupscum: he has been fearmongering others about Italy being the Lamb for a while:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/3483?u=anstreim
Right into:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/3544?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/3576?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5946?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/5980?u=anstreim
+That weird swap to Kyo that I posted above.
Then there are his votes and him shortly bringing attention to how Apprentice’s scum wagon dissipated, but never following it through.
Scrolling through the day today (during Lynch phase), most of his votes have been memes/rescinds. The only vote that stuck for a bit was his vote on Derps – which he switched to Amelia and then unvoted.
Fun fact: right now his vote is parked on Vulgard. Afaik he is also convinced that Vulgard/Arete aren’t W/W, but his pushes on Arete still weren’t really serious? What I’ve seen so far is him finding justifications to not vote them in multiple instances, those will be out of order:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/8383?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/7595?u=anstreim
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/7879?u=anstreim
And I’m too tired to find more but there were definitely a lot more, along with a post that basically read like “I just want Arete to be town so I can sheep their reads”.
Also I hate ISOing spammy highposters, this is such a headache.
I completely vibe with Alice’s frustration
I give it a solid townread
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I’m honestly too scarred by two games where I miscleared Alice so I just don’t trust myself on her anymore. She does seem like town to me, though.