Ritual Mafia IV -- Spectator Chat

[anon6348071]

@anon6348071

Which is somewhat strange

But also not because Kyo is Kyo so I don’t view it as AI. Unless Arete specifically starts pushing him and trying to mislynch him, of course.

[Geyde]

I think calling Arete traitor is a fairly safe call given that atp we need a couple assumptions to help iron out the game
This is also one I don’t think is dangerous to be wrong on given that it shouldn’t affect associations too much

Summary

Accused	Voters	Number
Amelia	Arete, an_gorta_pratai, Wazza, DryBones	4/8
Apprentice	Amelia, Alice	2/8
Icibalus	Braixen	1/8
katze	Icibalus	1/8
Wazza	sulit	1/8
sulit	Vulgard	1/8

Next, I want to make the assumption that Amelia’s slot is town
Wisp’s AtE was subtle enough that it made sense for them to do while also not being undeserved, overplayed, or part of wolf theatre

Vulgard is also assumed not convert by this point.

Final assumption I want to make is a bold one
That Icibalus is town and katze is scum
My reason for this is ultimately that Ici’s slot in no way ever gets converted and that SDA’s posting reminds me of the advice I gave to him about improving how he ‘talks’ about his thoughts. I reasoned with them that their biggest problem as town was that they weren’t really trying to give out their reads in a manner people could understand.
This matches their ISO at the beginning of this game iirc
Additionally their claim is mostly self resolving

Katze has been acting insanely wolfy all game
I think if anyone is a guaranteed wolf then they are it

Summary

Accused	Voters	Number
Amelia	Arete, an_gorta_pratai, Wazza, DryBones	4/8
Apprentice	Amelia, Alice	2/8
Icibalus	Braixen	1/8
katze	Icibalus	1/8
Wazza	sulit	1/8
sulit	Vulgard	1/8

[Geyde]

@anon6348071

And that’s basically the extent of it. So, Kat’s reason for scumreading Gorta is being ignored and ‘existing’, which I kind of understand? Like you can see above, there aren’t that many contributions.

The reads seem to be rather even, in a way that no one seems to actively scumread Gorta just yet. He’s just hanging somewhere in the scumlean zone, mostly being ignored.

ok that’s a wolf in that case probably
Never being pushed despite being an easy push is generally a sign that something is up

[Geyde]

If gorta thinks arete is possible traitor then a lot of their reads make very solid sense
The question I have is then ‘have they been traitor hunting in the main thread?’

[Geyde]

Of course, I’m throwing darts at a dart board
Gorta is an uncertain read and I think we just need to take a look at VCA in order to determine their alignment

I believe the important questions to ask are:

1. Have they been voting people that are currently iffy in terms of their alignment?
2. Have their votes gone on mostly town
3. Is their progression (ie how they transition from point to point) reasonable?

I’ll consider that Italy is very likely town and leave that at that as well
Shouldn’t matter too much for VCA

[anon6348071]

@Geyde

Next, I want to make the assumption that Amelia’s slot is town

I’m basically 99% positive that Amelia is town, and a good chunk of that confidence comes from her not self-hammering herself because scum Amelia really had no reason not to. I mean, it denies 9 hours of discussion to Congreration, not to mention that she doesn’t really leave a lot of associations this way? Her ISO is lackluster and she hasn’t really interacted with many people in a meaningful way.
The only time I could see her slot being scum and not self-hammering in that spot is if she was confident that she could convince others to not lynch her but… She hasn’t made any efforts to do that. Her defense could be summarized with:
“I could hammer myself if I was scum, but I’m not going to. See who hammers me the moment I flip town.”

@Geyde

That Icibalus is town and katze is scum

I can definitely see Ici being town here. Like I wrote in the wallpost above, he just looks better right now. Not that much better that I would towncore him, but better nonetheless. Still want more posts.
Katze scum is what I’m thinking since the end of the Ritual phase and I’m a little bit concerned about it, because at this point it seems like he’s too obvious.

@Geyde

Never being pushed despite being an easy push is generally a sign that something is up

Isn’t that literally what Kat has been doing this whole game, though? He has been shading people and focusing on Vulgard/Arete, but never pushing anyone at all?

@Geyde

The question I have is then ‘have they been traitor hunting in the main thread?’

Kind of. There was some debate, specifically from Marshal I think – but they came to a consensus that traitor hunting isn’t really productive at the moment and they need scum. Marshal did discuss it a bit later though, I can go dig up his posts. Speaking of which, Kat claimed that he had been actively traitor hunting D1 (if you remember/saw his attempt to shade Marshal), but he kinda let that one go too.
Some people have mentioned Arete as a possible traitor, though.

[anon6348071]

So I can’t really answer the other two right off the bat because I haven’t been focusing on Gorta alone, but I can answer this:

@Geyde

Is their progression (ie how they transition from point to point) reasonable?

Yes. So far, his progression matched his thought process and there were no sudden flips in his reads, which is a good look in my book.

[Geyde]

@anon6348071

Katze scum is what I’m thinking since the end of the Ritual phase and I’m a little bit concerned about it, because at this point it seems like he’s too obvious.

@anon6348071

Isn’t that literally what Kat has been doing this whole game, though? He has been shading people and focusing on Vulgard/Arete, but never pushing anyone at all?

I meant to refer to Gorta with that post. Hopefully that wasn’t lost in my post
Katze not really pushing players is noteworthy in my mind now that you say it
That’s completely strange

Is it possible that Katze was the one converted?

[anon6348071]

Oh, I’m sorry. I probably totally misread that. Let me re-check.

Although isn’t Gorta “being sus but never pushed” lines up with Apprentice too? Reminder: that whole wagon vanished and has never been revisited again, and now people are kind of discussing him in the vacuum and not doing anything about it. And I do not think that Apprentice/Gorta are ever W/W together, it’s one or the other or (unlikely) neither.

[Geyde]

@anon6348071

So I can’t really answer the other two right off the bat because I haven’t been focusing on Gorta alone, but I can answer this:

@Geyde

Is their progression (ie how they transition from point to point) reasonable?

Yes. So far, his progression matched his thought process and there were no sudden flips in his reads, which is a good look in my book.

Consistent thought processes are generally a sign of someone being town in most instances
Even if their ideas are slightly undercooked, they haven’t flip flopped in their thought processes, which (flip flopping) would be something far more likely for a scum player to do should they not be swinging hard like Gorta

[Geyde]

@anon6348071

Although isn’t Gorta “being sus but never pushed” lines up with Apprentice too? Reminder: that whole wagon vanished and has never been revisited again, and now people are kind of discussing him in the vacuum and not doing anything about it

I believe people have mentioned Apprentice’s wagon vanishing at one point or another, although I could easily be wrong there.
hmm
It’s a tough call

[anon6348071]

And here’s the assembly of Gorta’s votes (and his votes only, not going to count Nappy here since he replaced out early):
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/8917?u=anstreim

…And that’s it. He has only one vote on Amelia, whom we presume to be most likely town right now. The vote is also currently parked on her – I don’t think this is in any way AI just yet? Though I would’ve hopped off of her by now.

Oh and Gorta’s thoughts on Arete, since we are speaking about this:
https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/6819?u=anstreim

https://forum.imperium42.com/t/fm-ritual-mafia-iv-day-2-lynch-phase-14-16/81237/6842?u=anstreim

He views SDA is the possible LW, but thinks Arete is the convert.

[Geyde]

If gorta is town, then we come to a difficult spot
We have a load of vanity (1 vote only) wagons, of which don’t lead us anywhere specific
Wazza is almost certainly town.

Only wolf I could then see on wagon is Drybones

If not, then it’s possible that scum don’t want amelia lynched, but if that was the case then who would be in this pile?
Marshal?
Arete?
Drybones (I know they flipped read on amelia’s slot for no good reason)?
Alice?

[anon6348071]

They have and they have mentioned it extensively. Off the top of my mind:
Marshal, Arete, Alice, SDA, Kat and I want to say… Wazza? All mentioned it at some point.

[anon6348071]

So from my point of view, even though this is early and we still don’t have D2 lynch yet, the possible scumteam composition could be:
Kyo [Dead], Katze, Apprentice > Seth [Convert]
+Arete [Traitor]

This isn’t really backed up by a lot of solid proof but I do not see a world where:
Alice/Arete are W/W
Kyo/Alice are W/W
Vulgard/Arete are W/W.

[Geyde]

What I get from VCA on this wagon is that Drybones is very likely to be the convert
Would you agree?

[Geyde]

@anon6348071

So from my point of view, even though this is early and we still don’t have D2 lynch yet, the possible scumteam composition could be:
Kyo [Dead], Katze, Apprentice > Seth [Convert]
+Arete [Traitor]

wait a fucking second
Braixen and Katze both claimed medium?

[anon6348071]

Yeah I also said so in my post. Seth strikes me as a convert but not just because of the wagon itself, but rather based off of his activity and the way he handles himself after the Ritual phase.

@anon6348071

Now, this is the slot that I have dropped all the way from townleans into slight scumleans, and the reason for it is Seth’s drop in activity. I might be tinfoiling myself, but he vanished after the Ritual phase, and started sounding self-aware the next time he popped into the thread. His posts still don’t really carry a lot of logic, but they just feel different.

@anon6348071

right now, in my book Seth is a prime conversion target.

Though last I checked he popped into the thread again, so he might be able to produce some content that will help us to determine his alignment better.

[Geyde]

I was looking at your list (good format btw)
And that stuck out very ugly

[anon6348071]

The short answer is: yes, he does.
The full claimlist is:
Wazza – Oracle
Marshal – ???
Icibalus – Conjurer
Alice – Martyr
Gorta – Enchanter
Kat – Medium
Arete – Blood Mage
Italy – Diviner
Braixen – Medium
Seth – Blood Mage
Sulit – Conjurer
Vulgard – Diviner
Apprentice – Blood Mage
Amelia – Conjurer.