Disclaimer: I have not read the entire game front-to-back in order. I’ve read miscellaneous parts of it where I happened to open the thread mid-game (probably about half of it in total, if I had to guess, by sheer proportion of posts?), and I read through most of the living players’ Isos (+ a few other miscellaneous parts of the game that I felt were relevant). I figured that I would probably have an easier time reading people that way than if I tried just re-reading the thread like it’s a book. In theory I could have missed something that way, if there’s something you specifically want to point me to feel free to do that, if you’re like ‘ooOOo Arete didn’t know about [random thing that happened halfway through D2], that means they’re a wolf!’ I will make angry noises at you, or maybe try to get you policied, depending on how I feel. If you have a problem with this, oh well, suck it up ¯_(ツ)_/¯
I’m going to try and roughly sort my thoughts into people into tiers, but realistically some of my reads are going to be stronger within-tier than others.
unCC’d PRs
Min - unCC’d tracker
Mist - unCC’d 1-shot vig
people I think are villagers
you can call this section ‘towncore’ if you want
Hippo - minor point but he has a post (P#1199) that feels like he’s TMIing Marl town which makes me think that he’s (Hippo) probably just town – given that Marl is a wolf I think the most likely possibility is that he just didn’t think about the possibility of Marl being a wolf. I think his reaction to CRich’s sub in was super villagery, it felt like he legitimately believed in the possibility of CRich scumslipping. He also got really annoyed by the accusations that he was bussing Chloe, which makes me think that he didn’t have TMI that Chloe was going to flip town – it felt like a read he really expected to have to defend himself from. ehhhh I just got to the end of his Iso and I don’t like how he just decides to sheep Arctic, feels like a weak excuse for voting a villager, but the rest of his Iso is good and I’m too lazy to copypaste this paragraph into a different section.
Atlas - has a bunch of individual moments that I think are extremely pure, e.g. “Marl has talked more” (P#870) as a reason to vote Chloe over him, with no further explanation. I like his response to the CRich yeet of essentially justifying it because CRich was toxic given that he wasn’t actually on the wagon (if he had been I’d feel differently, but given that he wasn’t I think as a wolf he would be more likely to take the line of ‘omg why did you kill him he was town!’ rather than ‘he had it coming’ given that he wasn’t a contributor to the final wagon. I had a mild tinfoil in earlygame that he was being coached by Marshal but I think some of his interactions with Marshal near EoD3 are unlikely to be coached.
villagers question mark
Arctic - he has a lot of posts so I’m not going to read all of them. it’s 4:04 AM and the day starts at 11. heck me, I guess. anyways, I tried to go into his Iso with some skepticism because the PoE this game has been Not Great (three straight PoE kills flipped V, I know my slot is V, the one dead wolf was widely (?) townread) and ‘the widely townread player with zero pelts is a wolf’ seemed like a plausible explanation but after skimming his Iso in Countries FM I think he’s reasonably likely to be a villager here, in that game it felt like he was really struggling to make reads in a way that led to him overrelying on fluff + the reads he did have feeling forced, whereas here his reads have a lot more depth to them + don’t feel as forced.
Eli - he’s posting and not a popsicle and making reads that vaguely resemble actual reads rather than literally just fluffing so meta says he’s town
shrugrete
Derps - skimmed his Iso and didn’t really get anything out of it. If I had to go GTH I’d say wolf for claiming that he wanted to CFD Marshal at EoD but making no attempt to actually go through with it? I’m not used to him buckling down and picking a wagon that matters rather than insisting on tunnelling his own reads. eta: I saw someone say he was spewed town by Marl and I checked his Iso and honestly I’m not seeing anything that’s outside of the range of theoretical bussing, like ‘Marl said he was wolf or PR’ isn’t a good argument, ‘Marl tried to get him killed’ is better but not outside the range of what wolf!Marl might conceivably do, and Marl trying to tie him to me is actively bad.
Marshal - all my homies hate reading Marshal. personally I’m currently feeling ‘go to bed’ rather than ‘finish reading her Iso’ (n.b. for the reader: the reads on this readlist are not in the order I wrote them, I’m doing Marshal last). I don’t like how she treated Marl but I feel like a lot of that is ‘Marissa defended a wolf?? Marissa wolf??’ which is bad logic. from the skim I did of her Iso she’s had a lot of wrong reads which is broadly concerning but not everyone she’s pushed has flipped yet and I don’t want to get too into preflips. really this is ‘I think she’s >rand W but don’t want to commit because I’m scared I’m wrong.’
Blizer - this one is shrugrete for opposite reasons, rather than nothing pulling me either way it’s ‘lots of things pulling me both ways.’ Bluestorm + his VT claim + his ‘I’m not going to vote without a lead like from a Sheriff’ felt super pure to me, it matches the ‘confused ToL player newbie villager’ super well. Ami’s posting doesn’t pull me strongly either way (I’ve seen some people saying it was wolfy, which I don’t think is actually true, it’s within her villagerange based on the meta I have for her), then Blizer’s posting was mostly pretty bad (like, his entire Iso is a mix of IIOA, weak shade, and hedging) but the ATE at the end felt kind of real. which is probably dumb, but.
wolfy
Vulgard – I read through his posts and – you know how I used to just respond to all of his posts with ‘this post was not written by a villager’ when he randed wolf? that’s the exact vibe I get from literally every single one of his posts. I don’t want to try and strongarm people into sheeping this because I know he just got back from a long break, so I’m not confident that I can read him 100 percent correctly, but also, his posts are Not Good. If I still feel like he’s a wolf after I get the chance to realtime with him I might case him but for now the tl;dr is:
- his tone is bad in the exact way that it’s bad when he’s a wolf
- none of his reads display original thought – not in the sense that his reads are copying other people’s reads, but in the sense that the reasons he gives for his reads feel like Generic Reasons for Reads straight off the presses from the Reads Factory. Usually when he’s town his reads have some of that but also some reads that involve literally any original thought whatsoever/don’t sound like reasons you would get from a list of Top Ten Things People Use To Read Other People. not sure if I’m explaining this well? please tell me if you’re confused, I think this is the most damning.
- he keeps giving up villagereads when it’s convenient, e.g. with PKR – he didn’t really have much progression on that read (like, more than zero, but not enough to explain how he went from shielding him to trying to kill his slot). it kind of reminds me of how he played the last time we wolfed together, which was admittedly a while ago.
overall a thing I notice is that I don’t really have a lot of confident villagereads, I think that’s likely because I haven’t been in the game very long + will correct itself when I get the chance to realtime with people. also I’m going to hopefully find time to actually read through all of Arctic and Marshal’s posts, which should allow me to get a better read on them in one direction or another.
my immediate PoE is the bottom four slots on my readlist, I guess
