Mate I failed math
i kind of feel the same but then i think town hasn’t played great this game as a whole anyway
which is why if we win now it’ll feel really great
and even though i kind of want to die, discovering marshal is like always a villager kind of reinvigorated my wim a little
inb4 she’s still not and i’ll feel even worse post game
and yes i’m pretending i know you’re a villager for this post but i think you are anyway
lol said he was going to be pretty much useless from then on
wolves would be fine with killing him here
is it normal to scumread all of arete’s posts which include extra unnecessary information in parentheses
would you like examples of village games where I included similar clarifications in parentheses or would that interfere with your current strategy of ‘convince yourself Arete is a wolf despite any evidence to the contrary’
Worldbuilding
My pov:
Arete/Derps/Eli - World where both partners of lol decided to bus them at EoD3 for no reason. Yeah, no. Even if it’s Derps and Eli, I don’t think this happens. They have two village alternatives and still decide to do this? No.
Arete/Derps/Atlas - Viable. The one thing going against it is Arete shrugging at a Derps yeet and Atlas not trying to save or bus lol, at EoD, but Atlas wasn’t even there for EoD. Arete’s prodding of Atlas and continuously maintaining a townread today can easily be a W/W move. W!Arete treating V!Atlas like this is unlikely, because it deprives them of a misyeet option. V/W and V/V with Arete V in both cases are possible options, but this world assumes Arete mafia. And Derps is a known busser, so w!Derps voting w!lol at EoD3 isn’t out of the question at all.
Arete/Derps/Blizer - An interesting world. This world arguably makes the most sense, considering it means two wolves were being wagoned at EoD3, so them choosing to pile on one and bus isn’t out of the question. The problem is that Arete is shrugging at a Derps yeet and consistently questioning Blizer’s worldview, so much so that it’s approaching “outside of the realm of theater” territory, but. I still think it’s a viable world, considering there are points in favor of it.
Arete/Eli/Atlas - Eli busses lol alone for no reason at EoD3 when his thread position is already good regardless, and Atlas does nothing. Lolslot did townread both Eli and Atlas a fair bit and Arete townreads them too, but I still find this unlikely.
Arete/Eli/Blizer - Viable world, except Eli and Blizer bus a more active partner at EoD3 for no reason. I can see Blizer needing the towncred, but not Eli. In general, I just don’t see the need for Eli to bus there, whatsoever. He does not need the towncred and he is not being pressured to vote there. At all.
Arete/Atlas/Blizer - I actually find this one viable. Blizer might’ve voted lol without actually thinking it goes over. You can argue “why don’t you apply this logic to other worlds with Arete and Blizer in them” but these other worlds also involve “a partner voting with Blizer for a double bus.” Double bussing the most active wolf on your team seems really counterproductive. “W!Blizer votes w!lol out of desperation, without actually thinking lol will go over, in an effort to make either one of them look better post-flip” makes more sense. Especially since Blizer dips right after. Besides, Arete’s prodding of Atlas and continuously maintaining a townread can easily be a W/W move. W!Arete treating V!Atlas like this is unlikely, because it deprives them of a misyeet option. V/W and V/V with Arete V in both cases are possible options, but this world assumes Arete mafia.
Derps/Eli/Atlas - They can all do whatever they want with their votes at EoD3. There is nothing to disprove this world other than “I don’t think wolves decide to collectively do nothing for the entire game,” but that’s not evidence and is meaningless.
Derps/Eli/Blizer - Blizer avoids scumreading both of them (brief suggestion of w!Marshal shielding w!Eli but quickly removes Eli from the equation), they both avoid voting Blizer at EoD3, none of them seem super interested in solving each other. Blizer could be called an exception, but even he brought up a theory of “Derps V, Marshal W” today. I even questioned it and called it W/W, and he was like “possible but I think W/V.” So, basically, I could 100% see this being the world. The one thing that gives me pause is Ami (Blizer’s predecessor) randomly popping in and voting Eli, which would be Ami’s partner in this world, but it’s not clearing. That said, Eli had some chances of going over at the time, so… maybe that’s what disproves this world?
Derps/Atlas/Blizer - Much of the same as above, except Atlas straight up does not vote at all. Actually more likely than the Derps/Eli/Blizer world, because the “why would Ami rando vote Eli when Eli had a chance of going over, however small” argument doesn’t even apply here, since Eli’s a villager in this world.
Eli/Atlas/Blizer - Almost identical case to Derps/Eli/Blizer. I could see Eli voting with his partner to save his partner, it’s not hard. The “why would Ami vote for Eli of all people instead of a villager if Ami wasn’t planning to do anything of note” argument exists as well.
Worlds that aren’t real imo:
Arete/Derps/Eli
Arete/Eli/Atlas
Arete/Eli/Blizer
Plausible but somewhat unlikely fmpov:
Arete/Derps/Blizer (possibility for it being real: Arete is bussing Derps and hard distancing with Blizer)
Arete/Derps/Atlas (possibility for it being real: Arete is bussing Derps)
Fewest things that make it unlikely fmpov:
Arete/Atlas/Blizer (possibility for it being wrong: Arete is questioning Blizer more than any other player today, minus Vul)
Derps/Eli/Atlas (possibility for it being wrong: they have done nothing)
Derps/Eli/Blizer (possibility for it being wrong: Ami randomly voted Eli at a rare time when he still could’ve gone over in theory)
Eli/Atlas/Blizer (possibility for it being wrong: Ami randomly voted Eli at a rare time when he still could’ve gone over in theory)
A world for which I’ve found no contrary evidence:
Derps/Atlas/Blizer
Note about Arete “bussing Derps” - Arete is still prioritizing pushing me for the most part, over Derps. And/or Blizer sometimes.
i haven’t seen any convincing evidence to the contrary and no one has really provided me with any
i haven’t ISO’ed you since your first 30-ish posts but i still read your posts in thread and get bored
Numbers that might mean stuff:
There is only one world with Derps, out of six, I find completely implausible.
Most worlds with Arete look implausible to some degree (3/6 ‘not real,’ 2/6 ‘unlikely’), unless Arete has decided to bus at least one of their partners today.
Atlas, Blizer, and Eli are super all over the place.
Conclusion (assuming my world analysis is in any way correct and reliable):
Arete is a terrible idea to yeet today. 5/6 of worlds with them are super unlikely to exist, unless you assume extreme distancing/bussing on their part. I have a hard time assuming it, because an Arete who replaces into a wolf slot here doesn’t need to bus to win. I suppose I am a wolf looking for outs.
Derps is the best yeet today by a mile. 5/6 of worlds with him are viable.
Derps/Atlas/Blizer are all in a world for which I’ve found no contrary evidence whatsoever, meaning there’s no reason it can’t exist unless I missed something that obviously prevents it from being real. Blizer’s been insistent on scumreading people other than Derps and Atlas all game, Atlas has never done anything resembling a push on either of these two (or anyone in general, but that’s another story), and Derps has been on villagers all game. You could argue that’s villagery of him, which is the best thing I can come up with that disproves this. “Derps never voted a partner, must be town. He’s only a wolf in worlds where he’s voted 1+ partners at 1+ timeframes.”
Counterpoint: Arete’s spending much more time pushing me and Blizer than pushing Derps, Derps is a shrugyeet for them. If you consider that partner indicative, Arete/Derps/Atlas is perfectly viable next to Blizer/Derps/Atlas. Arete/Derps/Blizer still has that “treatment of Blizer” counterargument.
I dont think Eli was on at EoD, and Derps came in with like 15 to 10 minutes left in EoD, so he could have placed his vote on lol (wolf buddy in this world) without paying attention to the VC and seeing Eli was on the wagon aswell (Or he didnt give a shit that Eli was on the wagon, which is something derps would do tbh)
great let’s kill sirderpsalot
ftr I think ‘arete is bussing derps’ is a lot more plausible than I think you’re making it out to be.
They tried pretty hard to set up the idea of me and derps being w/w and simultaneously really ramped up the pressure on me.
I think that they could understand the threat i pose to the slot and instead of letitng me pop him and get cleared they are trying to neutralize the threat entirely
Shortnite 2
Summary
Clown Fiesta 2
Summary
LoZ mash on MU
Stardew Valley hydra game on MU
pretty sure there are more examples from the last two games but when I search for ( MU pulls up every post with a quote in it and I think this is sufficient to make my point
Alright
i have dinner soon
do you want my vote now or after dinner
cause hes gonna be put at L-2 with my vote
waitwaitwait
didn’t you say earlier that there was literally a 100 percent chance I was a wolf
you can wait, i’m in no rush but I like a derps kill the most
slightly peeved out that everyone seems fine with it but if he’s wolf he’s not really trying to save himself anyways
1 Like
Yes, yes he did
like how i said i was about 95% sure Marshal was a wolf and i was staking the game on that claim
Actually
me and Vul legit said the same shit about two different slots
thats a Kek right there