Why before vulgard was wolfy and now hes fine: the novel
Vulgard:
Marluxion chainsawing Eli for voting PKR is eh.
Marluxion:
Only the Vulgard, master of all four elements, could stop them, but when the world needed him most, he vanished.
Hardclaim the Avatar. I’m a JOAT.
Marl is town. I don’t care about his Wazza vote.
Marl is town, book it.
Just book it.
He was, infact, not town
He called both of the dead wolves town day one, which makes me feel suspicious about him beforehand
ATE
I really like this, even if Richard flipped town. Richard was 100% cringe, and should’ve died, even if town
Vulgard:
Honestly, the fact CRich has developed reads at all is a decent look, even though the way he’s talking about Mistyx is still weird. The main point I don’t like isn’t even the Mistyx read, but the fact he found a way to townread both his accusers and his defenders, plus his scumreads are all for reasons that don’t make people wolves.
Accuses him and then instantly defends him
Valid point against cringe-richard
Was after marl was outted wolf. Doesn’t bother explaining why he thought he was town
Vulgard:
Villagery.
Arctic’s Wazza push is villagery, I think wolf!Arctic would pick an easier target to go after.
Arctic:
lol and PKR are incredibly underwhelming
and the worrying part is i’m pretty sure PKR is just lurking
he has only given any reads after being prompted
@lol @PokemonKidRyan wake up
Arctic w/w with lol and PKR confirmed.
Arctic’s posting fairly consistently has no agenda and his pursuit of his reads looks genuine. Comfortable with this being town. I don’t actually have anything more to say, I think he’s been playing an acceptable villager game and there wasn’t a moment in his ISO where I was like “he has a wolf mindset.”
I don’t know if Arctic’s randed wolf since I played with wolf!him, but when we were wolves in Countries he struggled with formulating fake reads early in the game. This is not as important as you may think I believe, but it’s another factor.
Arctic was doctor, but it does make sense that a PR would play in the same nervousness that a wolf would feel, especially if you weren’t outted (like mist outted d1)
Do you still believe this? Derps was not included because he “claimed neighborizer”, which is fine
if your gonna be not relevant at all, at least be funny
I like this, especially because of how marshal was acting
accepts responsibility
Vulgard:
Atlas has been dropping off the face of the planet like Eli and it’s not making solving this game any easier.
I’ve also had vague thoughts on Arctic powerwolfing. That would be a massive difference compared to his last wolfgame, though.
valid
Bliz was good, but like the push on derps
Vulgard:
The extent of Eli’s analysis D2:
“lol wolf”
“PKR wolf”
Reasoning:
“PKR asked to be wagoned and that’s wolfy”
No reasoning given for lol wolf. Promises to case lol but never delivers on it.
Noting that his treatment of me vs Marshal does not come across as if he cares at all.
The extent of Eli’s analysis D3:
“lol and PKR wolves, lol moreso than PKR.”
Reasoning:
“bad tone”
“no good pushes”
“makes no sense”
This is for lol. No real reason given for PKR.
eli was hella lazy then
Lol was acting super super wolfy
thats just called being bad
Vulgard:
Vulgard:
To Blizer’s credit, he does enter day 4 with different considerations. That said, his point of view day 3 still looks disjointed. There’s also the point I brought up earlier about him entering the thread promising a wolf pelt. Then he doesn’t deliver; he doesn’t even vote anyone until he’s a wagon forced to vote someone to survive. His read flip on lol at EoD looks less like Blizer being convinced lol’s a wolf and more like self-pres.
A possible explanation:
Blizer was only going to present this “I will give you a pelt” attitude until people would townread his slot. As soon as people would townread him for investment and entering the thread with ‘fire,’ he’d drop the shtick. You could argue “Vul, why are you building a narrative?” to which I say “it’s natural to do this as a wolf.” You’re replacing into a doomed slot. The best way to show you are a ‘villager’ is to post reads and look like you will try to solve the game. Which is what Blizer did, to his credit.
Why is Blizer not a villager? His POV doesn’t make sense to me on many occasions, and I’ve tried to understand it.
The biggest problem is him entering the thread with a “I will find wolves” mindset, yet not pushing any. I struggle to believe his claims that town is being misled and will lose the game when he’s not pushing wolves.
He claims he is trying to break the status quo because town needs to do it, but his only vote is what looks like self-pres.
He names Eli/Marshal/lol as his team, but does not push Eli because Marshal is shielding him. That part is something I also don’t understand whatsoever. Blizer explained it today by claiming he’d been doubting himself, but that’s inconsistent. His initial attitude was a confident one. He kept talking about bringing wolf pelts to the town. He sounded sure of himself when he ranted about town ‘needing luck to win this game because town is wrong.’
It’s all strange.
Could Blizer be a villager who’s confident and not confident at the same time? …I suppose? But it’s strange. He doesn’t have anything to lose if he’s a PoE villager who needs to break the status quo. There should be nothing stopping him from voting his wolfreads. Confidence be damned, town is headed into a loss and he thinks the PoE is wrong. Why does he not even vote his wolfreads if he has that mindset? Why does he resort to AtE when getting pushed despite his contributions? Why is he banking on AtE to save himself instead of killing a wolf, and why does his only vote look like pure self-pres?
If you can answer all these questions assuming a v!Blizer perspective, I’ll be able to see him being town. At present, I don’t see it.
To his credit, re-reading blizer made him sound decently wolfy
Vulgard:
Hold up. This post implies Marshal could be town, despite you saying this:
I also assume you’re claiming villager.
How does it make sense for you to insult Marshal for having a bad towngame if you’re staking the game on her being mafia? If Marshal’s a villager, you agreed to getting chained next, and if you’re V, game’s over. If you think Marshal has a chance of flipping town (and your post there proves you have that thought)… you should never agree to this.
This is weird, and I’m glad vul called bliz out on this
Doesn’t instantly jump to the front of being v in Arctic’s eyes, instead questions him for that train of thought
This is not a good pass, and bliz was town, while derps was mafia
Vulgard:
So if you were to ask me, the most optimal yeet order looks like Derps → Atlas → Blizer → Arete.
Both Atlas and Derps are only in one world that is never real. Same with Blizer, for that matter.
If Derps and Atlas are both misses, then the team is exactly Arete/Eli/Blizer and we lose the game. It’s an unlikely world, because Arete’s been butting heads with Blizer this entire day, and because Eli busvoted on lol on day 3 when he didn’t have a real reason to do so. Especially since the PKR alternative, the only V wagon in a Blizer/Eli/Arete world, was right there, waiting for him. Not to mention, the fact Blizer could’ve just cased Marshal and voted Marshal instead of signal boosting a wagon on his partner. You could argue the desperation point (either Blizer flips, or lol flips, and it looks good for the other), but the fact lol didn’t self-pres on Blizer makes it less likely (since I presume it would’ve been more coordinated were it to actually happen, and them voting each other looks better and makes the plan more likely to work). You could still argue this world being real, I just find it unlikely enough for the odds to be good enough.
If Atlas and Blizer are misses, it’s Arete/Derps/Eli. That world is super unlikely, because it implies both of lol’s partners decided to bus them at EoD3 for no reason. They had two village alternatives at the time - Blizer and PKR - making it even more unlikely. I read Blizer’s argument about Eli not being there at EoD, but if Eli wasn’t there at EoD, that supports my argument. Eli isn’t the type of player to random busvote a partner and then dip before EoD unless it’s the wolves’ strategy to bus said partner. Derps is a busser, but I see no reason for them to coordinate a bus there, when Blizer/PKR are both easy V options and they won’t catch heat for either.
If Derps and Blizer are misses, it’s Arete/Atlas/Eli. However, I find this unlikely as well. In that world, Eli busses lol alone for no reason at EoD3 when his thread position is already good regardless, and Atlas does nothing. Lolslot did townread both Eli and Atlas a fair bit, and Arete townreads them too, but still. This is also a world where Arete hard wolfsides for the entirety of today, pushing exclusively villagers and at no point wolfreading their actual teammates. This endangers their team if they flip, and they would know this unless they think they can powerwolf alone (they sure as hell are not powerwolfing through this with Eli and Atlas as their teammates, I’m sorry). This is the option I have the fewest counterarguments for.
If we plow through Derps/Atlas/Blizer and only one of them is V, Arete is still a better yeet than Eli. This is disregarding me thinking they are mafia here.
Derps/Atlas W: if Eli is the third, it’s a team that’s been useless the whole game. You can think it’s still possible and we’ve all been idiots, but it’s been a long time since I saw an entire wolfteam actively doing nothing, and I find it implausible for that reason.
Derps/Blizer W: if Eli is the third, Ami (Blizer slot’s predecessor) decided to cast a bussing vote as their only contribution to the game, at a rare time when Eli still had some chance of going over. It’s also a world where Eli hasn’t tried to help Blizer at all while he was strugging to survive. You can think it’s still possible and Eli’s been trying to cruise to endgame, but I doubt it to some extent.
Atlas/Blizer W: if Eli is the third, Ami (Blizer slot’s predecessor) decided to cast a bussing vote as their only contribution to the game, at a rare time when Eli still had some chance of going over. It’s also a world where Eli hasn’t tried to help Blizer at all while he was strugging to survive. You can think it’s still possible and Eli’s been trying to cruise to endgame, but I doubt it to some extent.
–
Derps/Atlas W: if Arete is the third, Arete bussed. However, Arete’s spending much more time pushing me and Blizer than pushing Derps, Derps is a shrugyeet for them. This is partner indicative, especially so if Derps and Atlas both flip W, since Arete engaged with Atlas and has been trying to defend them today.
Derps/Blizer W: if Arete is the third, Arete both bussed and hard distanced with Blizer today. However, Arete’s spending much more time pushing me and Blizer than pushing Derps, Derps is a shrugyeet for them. This has partner potential.
Atlas/Blizer W: if Arete is the third, Arete tried to distance with one partner while defending the other, and push both Vul and Derps as the designated misyeets to win the game. Seems like a legitimate wolf plan to me.
Ultimately, though, the decision between Arete/Eli is strongly colored by my individual wolfread on Arete and you should decide between them yourselves once we get to that point.
Pretty decent
Vulgard:
We only always lose to Arete/Eli W/W specifically, if you follow this plan. If you’re afraid of that, you can swap Arete with Atlas. Then we lose to Blizer/Eli/Atlas if Arete/Derps are both V. And if Arete/Derps has one wolf, but Blizer is V, we lose to Eli/Atlas.
This plan relies on Eli being town to work, come to think of it. And I think Eli being town is likely because I don’t see the point in them bussing, unless you think Eli just wanted to distance with lol and what happened next was a sheer accident.
Trying to figure out a plan to move forward, very v
Vulgard:
My read on DaisyCloud in that game is a perfect example of what’s happening to many of my reads in this game. Track my DaisyCloud progression in that game and it looks like I’m townreading her when she yells at me, while scumreading her when she stops yelling at me. You could make the argument I’m doing that to her because I’m a wolf and I’m prodding at her when I can get away with it. But I was a villager.
No clue what this website is, but using other game’s plays to figure out w’s and v’s
Vulgard:
I will insist upon yeeting Derps until the end of today. Almost every world with Derps makes sense and he’s done the least, both this phase and last phase, compared to even Atlas and Eli. This lack of investment makes him difficult to sort out, and leaving him until tomorrow, when we might have MyLo, is a terrible idea. Having an unsortable slot that fits most wolf worlds makes the next day so, so much harder, because you constantly have to wonder if not voting Derps means you’re losing to a lowposting wolf or not.
Derps was evil, and unless vul was bussing (something derps would not like, based on his previous games (has a record of bussing other wolves for no reason)) (im not an alt i found this from another post) Vul was probably good
[quote=“Vulgard, post:5923, topic:87956, full:true”]
i was rereading thread, thought test was dumb, saw wazza write it was dumb, reply to him saying i agree, and continue reading. how does that make me “not believe what I say”
It looks like you’re just shading me cuz i questioned your and lights RT lol. Because all your reasons are bad.
ofc i cant prove its fake i never said i could. “you cant prove im bad 100% therefore u are”. but me commenting it was weird and then leaving does not show i didnt believe it lol.
and i didnt even say it was preplanned between the 2 of u, just that the interaction was weird and there may be scum in it.
you have no reason to believe i didnt believe what i said.
Old game, but this is the last Hippo wolfgame I remember. The posts quoted comprise the biggest push he made all game. The push is mostly OMGUS from the looks of it.
Compare this to these.
Hippolytus:
PokemonKidRyan:
10
9
1 - Lock Scum
this was you at end of D1 with me at top end of your reads (when I was defending you from Eli)
PokemonKidRyan:
I personally could see the team being any 4 of Eli, Atlas, SDA, BlueLance or Yellow at this point of time. (If I had to shoot for all scum right off the bat)
not even in ur team towards end of D1
then D2 after I started saying you have made such little sense you are probably mafia you come up with this read. and since then you have been saying im mafia but you dont give any other reasons, just stuff like this:
You gave one post where you actually gave decent reasons where I might be mafia:
Hippolytus:
Your townread of me and your scumread of me match up with exactly when I stop defending you and you have given no reasons other than “lol agenda” even though it makes no sense for me to suddenly want you hung from me defending you at start of D1.
If I was mafia wanted to hang you as town, being an easy low hanging fruit towny, why would I even defend you when you were doing that dumb ATE stuff at the start of the game. That would have been the perfect way to start put suspcioun on you. Instead I said you always do that and only sussed you when you started doing nothing.
If I’m mafia bussing my mafia pal PKR, I am not going to get much credit for a PKR flip cuz I started pushing him fairly late (after Arctic) and was originally soft-defending him.
Hippolytus:
It’s not that you once you thought I was town and now think I’m mafia, normal re-evaluation is not weird. It’s the fact that your change of heart lines up with exactly me throwing pressure on you, and I think that reaction is more likely to come from mafia (who previously thought they had me on their side) than town.
The bolded also strongly indicates a lack of TMI to me.
Seems really dedicated to the game, which was good at this point
Leader
Vulgard:
If Eli’s mafia, Marl has only pushed wolves the entire game, unless Atlas/Blizer are both mafia. Wolves + 1 villager in Chloeslot, from which he backed off.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s improbable.
Sounds like him
Vulgard:
Atlas ISO
Atlas:
Well your correct
I think Atlas is Derps’s puppet account.
I don’t see takes like these as clearing. Given their experience level claimed here:
Atlas later says they’ve been playing Untrusted for 4 months. The players who talk more in games like these are often just town, >>>rand. Therefore, writing a take like this in this game isn’t necessarily a town mindset. Rather, it’s a learned mindset and Atlas could’ve done it as either alignment.
Atlas:
/unvote
/vote Chloe
Atlas:
Marl has talked more
I don’t want to be that guy, but you know how it looks right now. No, I don’t think Atlas is mafia based on this alone.
Atlas:
Marshal, making me do this
Lol, hasn’t been posting
Hippo, aggressive in a way that hits me wrong
Atlas:
Marshal (seriously this time) pushing me cause I haven’t contributed anything useful to the convo
Eli, aggressive in the first half in a good way
Appel, is almost putting good points in every conversation
I like this string of posts a fair bit. The thinking isn’t too advanced, but the points brought up sound like Atlas believes in them.
Atlas:
/vote lol
My problem is Atlas’s pursuit of scumreads; there isn’t one. There are some votes cast, but no real pushes. And while it’s unlikely for new players to spearhead a push, even if they scumread the person, it’s still something that struck me as noteworthy.
This is also a belief one is likely to hold if they’ve played stuff like Secret Hitler and ToS before. Not alignment indicative with that in mind.
Looks like a genuine thought.
That is a pretty damn pure towncore. Now I’m wondering how likely it is for a somewhat new wolf to make their towncore pure.
Unless you think Eli’s mafia, but.
The bolded take is weird, because it looks like TMI. That said, this would be a very odd manifestation of TMI, to the point of being unbelievable. Therefore I choose to believe this isn’t TMI.
Atlas:
/vote lol
Atlas:
Ah ok
Atlas:
/unvote
/vote marl
Atlas:
he is literally evil
Atlas:
People I’m 95% sure are townLol, was working with the confirmed tracker before we even knew they were tracker
The progression on lol looks like a genuine thought process to me. I find it very, very unlikely that a wolf at Atlas’s experience level would push lol for 2 days, then notice min’s tracker claim, and switch the read on lol because lol had worked with the tracker before they claimed. Now, I’m not saying the read switch is correct – in fact, it’s likely wrong – but the thought Atlas presents here is something I struggle to envision coming from a wolf. You could assume stuff like W/W with lol and trying to clear lol with an excuse, but the ‘excuse’ is creative and unorthodox enough I’m willing to still call it towny. Also, Atlas continues to have a rather pure towncore. While Eli can be mafia in theory, Atlas also insists on townreading them a fair bit, to the point it comes from genuine belief in my book.
This is a silly read but I find it a little unlikely Atlas would have this thought at all as a wolf.
Atlas:
Heres what wolves will do
N2 they rollblock the tracker, and kill someone, as the doc heals either them or mist
Hot take: I think this is towny. Wolves don’t openly talk about optimal wolf nightplans. Especially not wolves with Atlas’s experience level. Atlas is more likely to have said this because they thought it was helpful.
Genuine thought, again, in my book. Alignment indicative? You could argue “no,” but for this case I argue “yes.”
Good observations about Amislot. Somewhat basic, but alright. The slot wasn’t under much scrutiny at the time, iirc, because of BlueLance’s VT claim.
Atlas:
you are overreacting
Atlas:
As a villager your one of 13, and wolves 4/17, which means each and every member counts. A wolf is dead, which makes it 3/12 of us.
Wolves would want to survive a lot more than a villager would
I was going to point out the lack of interest in PKR throughout d3 on Atlas’s side. I thought it was a bad look, because Atlas lacked the analytical mindset for a while in these posts. But then he zeroes in on Marshal. I like the confidence and the fact Atlas tries to support their claims. Again, the read is wrong, but the mindset is towny to me.
I don’t like this, much like everyone else, but I can see the town mindset here being “paranoia and suspicion.”
Hahahaha.
Still think it’s a towny approach to Marshal despite it being wrong.
Conclusion: if Atlas is a wolf, they’ve played well for someone at their experience level, because I don’t see anything that looks like agenda, nor do I see many aspects that fall into “known wolftells” category. Based on what I remember from the other three PoE players, thinking Atlas might just be town here.
thank you, very cool
Second ISO that day, impressive, shows dedication
Vulgard:
BlueLance ISO
BlueLance:
So, I hit a bit of a snag, I play so differently to you all XD I need to somehow make 15 posts that are on topic, but I dont Scum any of you, I work more mechanically, so till someone dies your all pretty much neutral to me and will stay that way. Even if one person gets aggressive or defensive, or just goes meh when the fingers are pointed at them, none of that on Day 1 actually makes me feel any alignment one way or another.
As for me though, I am VT all the way! I have a vote, and can type. No clue if flavor text actually means anything so no point posting it XD
I’ve called this both towny and scummy, now I don’t think it’s alignment indicative. It’s not like mafia can’t claim VT.
BlueLance:
lol and Hippoyeetus are prob the only people im more towards mafia. Everyone else who has voted is mostly town imo, those who havnt, town.
Also different play styles I guess, maybe just means im not cut out for mafia on forums XD
This post feels like player salad. The nonchalant tone feels off. Normally, you’d attribute nonchalance to villagers, but there’s something odd about the way he’s loud about not giving a damn. It’s like he wants people to townread him for it.
Ami ISO
Now Ami, who outposted BlueLance by… one post, before getting replaced out.
Ami:
yes sir/vote Ami
Ami:
sorry/vote Ami
Ami:
/vote Eli
boom bye scum
Ami:
vote eli for ez towncred
Ami:
anyways
Ami:
enough to know Eli=W
I do not townread this. Do I scumread this? Well, I see no real scumhunting mindset. Starting with a selfvote must’ve been done with the intention to be funny, which is >rand W in this context (I’mma get townreads for selfvoting haha funni), and following it up with declaring a random player a wolf comes across as performative. “Yes, I am totally scumhunting, look at me.”
I’d townread it if Ami straight up didn’t do anything. It would be better than this .
Blizer hours coming up.
Third ISO
Very confident, believes in his claim, even if it was false (derps/arete/blizer), derps was wolf, bliz wasn’t
Vulgard:
And no. I’m not doing this out of ego, selfishness, tunneling, confbias, nothing of the sort. I tried my best to enter ISOs with an open mind. I gave Blizer the benefit of the doubt at various points. But he is mafia, mafia, mafia, and he also spews both his partners, as I outline in detail in my case.
I am a villager. I recognize that I have played poorly until now, and I’m sorry for asking the town vig to shoot the town neighborizer (good meme, though). I’m sorry for the PKR misyeet, sorry for not making my progression obvious and not making myself easy to find. I’ve been flip-floppy, my original reads weren’t good, I possibly made a villager replace out, I made Marshal resort to AtE, and more. But I’ve been town, Vanilla Town, with a rolecard as green as the grass my father mowed down one hour ago, and while I’ve been wrong, I am 100% confident I’m right here.
There is too much supporting evidence, and it all fits together perfectly even when you discard my bias. Even with the most charitable of interpretations of Blizer’s behavior, there is no discernible way a villager even with the worst reads can consistently give suspected wolves outs while shoving villager after villager into groups of targets to push. It simply doesn’t happen, it’s deliberate, it makes Blizer mafia, and it makes Derps and Arete his exact partners. Eli is hardspewed town from Blizer, since Blizer tried to make the thread wolfread Eli and shoved him into the PoE like 5 times, and Blizer only being interested in Atlas once he needs Atlas as a yeet option makes Atlas likely town as well. He had been afraid to challenge the status quo (Atlas town) before, but once he needed to challenge it, he attempted to.
I tried my absolute best to make my case look as little like “dude trust me” as I could. I have used Blizer’s posts and actions, only Blizer’s posts and actions, and the only “preflips” I have made were considerations of people we universally agree to be villagers, plus that of my own slot.
Please, listen. And even if you do vote me out, if you absolutely need to see my flip to be convinced, then vote me. But please, please listen to me after that. Don’t let the wolves win, even if they push against me as hard as they can and post a thousand times.
Extremely dedicated
Vulgard:
How about you prove it?
lol, shut him down
Kinda obvious, there is at least one town in any group of three
You did
Vulgard:
If I want to vote with my heart, then I would actually go Atlas at this point, because I feel like there are things going for Eli and the only reason we are clearing Atlas is that their ISO is mildly villagery, because he’s actually been giving reads and stuff - which is honestly a really low bar. Eli has been giving reads as well, and at this point I’m not sure if I want to give Atlas a pass for playing like this - as in, giving reads, because that’s not that much.
Another good thing about voting Atlas is that not a single flipped wolf has talked about Atlas. Nobody has been interested in discussing Atlas, and Atlas hasn’t been interested in discussing anyone recently, which feels like Atlas is trying to slip by - and also gives Atlas a lot of wolf equity with every single player left alive.
Hippo is still town, and if he’s mafia, then he is playing wildly out of meta - and at this point I am giving him the win.
Valid
Also valid
Vulgard:
Maybe you should take a stance? Decide which one of us is mafia? We are in final six with two wolves alive. You have to take the initiative if you’re town.
I’m not forcing you to scumread one of us, but you haven’t posted a single analytical thing about this situation.
I agree, eli has been acting like this for a good while
Vulgard:
OK, who is my partner and why? I’m assuming you townread Arete, Marshal and Hippo, so… my partner’s Atlas, then? The person I’m pushing right now?
Exactly what eli is claiming now
Good pushes on eli
Happy now, Arete?
