Rwby fm - wolves win! at least it wasnt a ******* scumstomp

[Mistyx]

my issue with eli is “he is not playing the game”

[Mistyx]

which is not something i believe is anywhere near impossible for a villager on forum of lies, but

[Arete]

I can’t tell if Blizer is ignoring my question on purpose or if I just missed his response because mobile is bad

[Mistyx]

RWBY FM - Day 4 - 10/17

Part 1 - Bliz’s Mindset Bliz enters (well its his second post but still) with this post, then doubles down on it in his next post: This indicates Bliz’s starting mindset coming into this game, which isn’t anything on its own - but going forward, his posts do not fall in line with this mindset at all. Most of his posts are focused on gamestate assertions that aren’t actual scumhunting - it’s talking about how to scumhunt instead of actually doing it. Part 1a - Handling of Eli In the below s…

RWBY FM - Day 4 - 10/17

Part 2 - Handling of PKR This reads as a wolf talking about a villager getting misyeeted. There’s no consideration of PKR’s alignment in this post, just commentary on his play. More commentary not related to his alignment. Village read established on PKR. This is fine on its own. This is followed by a bunch of other points in the same vein as the last one, arguing a townread on PKR for threadstate reasons, combined with bringing up the idea that PKR is being bussed if he’s a wolf, plus mo…

@Arete

[Blizer]

Sorry i havent answered yet, let me look at it again and ill give you a response

[Vulgard]

Read on Marshal (warning: this is very long)

[quote=“Vulgard, post:2729, topic:87956, full:true”]
Okay. I thought I’d have to read Marshal’s whole ISO, but I think she’s just town based on her 100 first posts alone.

@Marshal

@Marluxion

Marshal what the hell are you and chloe even arguing about
[/quote]

I don’t like that it’s addressed at me, if chloe is mafia this feels like an attempt to pacify/distract me from what i’m doing and if chloe is town this feels like ‘lol what a quirky v/v battle, what are you guys even doing lolz’

This post looks good for her, considering Marl is a wolf.

Also, Marl started pushing on Chloe right after Marshal, and I don’t think wolf!Marl chooses to take over for his partner’s push for no reason whatsoever. It’s more likely he just sheeps a villager’s read. Marshal was wavering on Marl’s alignment a fair bit there. Marl pushing the same target as Marshal could’ve given v!Marshal a reason to townread him, and that would be beneficial. It didn’t, but I can see the wolf thought.

@Marshal

Im dropping marl and atlas down

although atlas is nearly there he has 1 read and it is sort by postcount
so
lolsz
and marl had that cringe post but if chloe is w he’s utterly spewed v so he has his chance to get back in

@Marshal

chloe and marl aren’t w/w

@Marshal

at least one of them is aboslutely hooowlin tho

Fair treatment of the Marl/Chloe argument. Securing wolf!Marl likely gets yeeted if villager!Chloe gets misyeeted. Again, no reason for wolf!Marshal to do this.

@Marshal

If i had to say i’d go marl, i’ve caught glimpses of that “I am the best player and will destroy every wolf” stuff that makes marl obvious town as town. I still don’t like his post at me during me and chloe’s argument. It seemed awfully sideliney and it was addressed at me. But atm i’d honestly probably put him at >rand v because outright thunderdoming someone and confidently declaring them an opportunistic wolf is villagery for him. Didn’t really want to say I felt that way and encourage him if he is wolf but it’s what i’m feeling.

I can’t say it being v/v is technically out of the question (w/w is, chloe’s annoyance is genuine, either she’s v or w who’s annoyed at marl for catching her) but I find it likely that at least one of them is mafia considering marl’s comment at me combined with the fact that chloe is wolfy

this is all i rlly wanna say on the 'dome. It’s unlikely to actually hold to EoD but i like it being in place atm, marl and chloe are 2 slots I want eyes on. im gonna focus on other stuff rn

This evaluation of the dome feels genuine. The reason it feels genuine is that she’s exploring every possibility in a way that makes sense and it doesn’t read like she’s trying to make the thread believe something we shouldn’t. She could’ve tried to spin the dome as V/V, but she didn’t - instead, she expresses doubt about it being V/V, and the way she talks about the V/V option reads like an afterthought / “I don’t want to talk about it” stuff. I think a wolf has a thought in their mind that goes like “I may want to clear my partner, because they’re digging a hole under themselves with this push.” And Marshal could easily get away with doing that, but chose not to.

“Wolves can bus!” This isn’t bussing. If Marshal were bussing, she’d just commit right there. Putting Marl in a PoE of two people, and planning to misyeet Chloe before killing him, doesn’t give Marshal much credit. Marshal talks about Marl being V in this post, and implies she’s V reading Marl over Chloe. That’s leading into a Chloe misyeet, and then Marshal has to either walk back the V/W read or bus Marl. She gets no credit for Marl, because she flipped Chloe first. I suppose you could give her towncred for creating that PoE in the first place, but I think the right play for wolf!Marshal here would be to just push one without creating a V/W dichotomy.

The way Marshal did it, Chloe gets cleared if Marshal busses Marl on day 1 - and that’s a free clear you’re giving to someone who’s a PoE villager at the time. For no reason other than your funky PoE wolfplay. And if Chloe gets misyeeted day 1, Marshal is forced to bus Marl day 2, unless she’s willing to sacrifice her position by defending a goon. Again, there’s no need for Marshal to lock herself into that agenda as a wolf, because this agenda always kills a wolf partner in a world where the village doesn’t suck and let Marshal get away with flipping her read. Such an agenda doesn’t need to be pushed by w!Marshal, especially not this early into day 1. It’s not even EoD. It’s that simple.

@Vulgard

@Marshal

Marl is town. If crichard has flipped wolf at this point stop reading, you don’t need reasoning, it is straight up lock true. If that has not happened, then he’s still likely a villager. If he’s wolf he domed a v chloe and got every single eye on him and her. I’ve never seen marl get even nearly that ballsy as wolf. His SDAL push is very villagery. He’s not lock, if he ever stops being a total gamer then he’s not lock v but he’s playing the exact same way he was in champs game 1 that made him a blindingly obvious villager there.

@Marshal

thats not in any way wolfy marl get yo head outta yo ass

@Marshal

Very Likely Townze:

Marl

???

I take that back. Marshal is doing the exact thing I’d expect from a wolf trying to somehow townread her partner despite creating a V/W read between said partner and a flipped villager on day 1 (and continuing to insist on it for the majority of day 1).

i told you guys that i was mafia and you guys all thought i was joking lol

@Vulgard

This progression makes absolutely no sense.

Especially the first post is just awful. “Hey, so we’re misyeeting the Chloe slot rn but Marl is still town, trust. Don’t mention the fact I talked about them being V/W for like 20 posts before.”

@Vulgard

Macro read tells me Marshal’s still town despite this, but micro read tells me this is Marshal pushing agenda.

@Marshal

I’d personally go PKR because PKR is vigbait and is gonna be yeeted eventually

but derps is a fine shot and 69x better than an eli shot

Noting that Marshal barely talks about PKR before in her ISO but says this anyway.

@Marshal

If marl is wolf i’m straight up spewed v so you can try again

No??? I’ve just read this ISO, no you’re not. You tried to shove in a Marl townread despite establishing a V/W world between Chloe and Marl beforehand, and the Chloe slot has flipped V. Where did that go?

I’m conflicted. On the one hand Marshal has several posts day 1 I’d consider good, but the treatment of Marl looks super partnered. Walking out of your own V/W read just to prevent him from dying and hope the villagers buy it.

[quote=“Vulgard, post:2740, topic:87956, full:true”]

@Vulgard

@Marshal

I’d personally go PKR because PKR is vigbait and is gonna be yeeted eventually

but derps is a fine shot and 69x better than an eli shot
[/quote]

Noting that Marshal barely talks about PKR before in her ISO but says this anyway.

She has no reads on either of them and randomly asks Mistyx to vig them n1 because they are in other people’s PoEs. Huh?

@Vulgard

Also, the only people Marshal has cleared off Marl being a wolf are people who were already independently villagery, plus Appel.

I don’t think villager!Marshal enters d2 and looks at Marl like “yeah Chloe flipped town but this is still town.” Villager!Marshal had that hard V/W read before, and now she just… doesn’t think about it? At all? Just calls Marl town because he pushed hard? This is nonsense.

@Vulgard

@Marshal

I think his interperetations of events are very unfair (and also crafted specifically to create a narrative but lol)

I townread you the entire way until you flipped to townreading Marl for no reason regardless of the Chloe slot’s flip. This felt like you knew the slot would flip V and Marl would look bad based on the dichotomy you yourself created, so you had to back out of it.

I’m not sure how it’s bad faith from me. If my read was in bad faith, I’d call you mafia from the beginning. I townread most of the things you did day 1, but then I saw that switch and I couldn’t see the V motivation there. I don’t see what would prompt you to progressively decide “well Marl is V anyway, even though I was sure there’s a wolf between Marl and Chloe.”

And then you come into day 2, with Chloe slot having flipped V, and you straight up call Marl one of your top villagers. Where did that entire read go? You talked about Chloe/Marl and how they were likely v/w for like 50 posts on day 1. Then comes EoD1 and day 2 and it’s like that talk didn’t even matter.

And Marl is now an outed wolf. Surely, you understand why this is extremely suspicious considering the timing.

@Vulgard

It’s really not that difficult.

Marshal declares there is probably a wolf between Marl and Chloe. Sure, you can walk away from that.

At EoD, she has convinced herself that Marl could be V regardless. This is when CRich is essentially lined up to be yeeted.

Note that CRich hasn’t flipped yet. So, basically, it looks like Marshal is switching her read on Marl in the last moments before it’s revealed the Chloe slot was V.

Now, why is this not a villager simply changing their mind? It could be. This part, I could still believe comes from a villager.

What matters is what comes after.

Day 2 begins, and Marshal barges in. After the Chloeslot V flip, Marshal thinks Marl is top town. Now, keep in mind that Marshal initially thought Marl vs Chloe was V/W, and toward the end of day 1, she started thinking Marl was a villager. This is fine.

What isn’t fine is that CRich’s V flip doesn’t even seem to be a factor here. Marshal’s stance at EoD1 was “okay, I think Marl might be a villager even if CRich flips town, and if CRich flips wolf he’s lock clear.” Marshal’s stance on day 2 is that Marl is top town. It doesn’t follow. Marl’s thunderdome target being V should warrant more scrutiny on Marl, not less. Marshal gaining more confidence in her V read on Marl after originally thinking Marl and Chloe were V/W does not make sense. I know she changed her Marl read at EoD1, but the read was still there. You can’t just townread someone harder after it’s revealed they argued with a villager.

A world where you do want to do this is a world where you know Marl is a wolf, because in that case, you know he’s going to look worse after the CRich flip. If you’re not planning to bus (and based on the eod 1 progression steps, wolf!Marshal definitely doesn’t plan to bus here), you want to solidify his position in the game. Claiming he’s a villager despite the flip and pointing to his tunnely behavior, similar to his towngame, is a great idea. …For a wolf who knows what she’s doing. Without knowing Marl’s a wolf, we’d likely believe this. Marl was decently townread on day 1, and Marshal’s words about Marl during day 2 (as loud as they were) would prevent us from scrutinizing him more deeply, or at least discourage us. There would be another wolf in the towncore.

But Marshal didn’t know Marl was tracked to the nightkilll at the time. Obviously, now she has to claim it was a mistaken read change, there is nothing else she can do. Would I expect that from a villager? Absolutely. But Marshal’s attitude here as she’s responding to my case feels more like a wolf annoyed she got caught, rather than a villager shoved into the PoE by mistake. The AtE element is one part of this interpretation, and the instant retaliation is another. I’m being accused of framing the situation against her when I simply think her read swap on Marl is unjustified from a V perspective. And I have just reasoned out why I think that read change is super wolfy.

Carry on.

@Vulgard

Basically, what I’m arguing is that Marshal’s treatment of Marl makes sense if she’s a wolf but doesn’t if she’s a villager. I’m not framing anything. I’m looking at the facts and determining whether it makes sense for v!Marshal to have this thought process. And I don’t think it does.

@Vulgard

Another aspect of this is that Mistyx had a vig shot, and Marl would look pretty bad off the CRich V flip considering multiple people had called his argument with Chloe V/W. You could argue Marshal is starting to “townread” Marl already at EoD1 for this exact reason. The vig needs reasons not to shoot there, so that the wolves don’t lose a member.

But that is framing, since a villager Marshal could still be wrong in the worst possible moment. See the difference?

@Vulgard

I could 100% push this in bad faith if Marshal is V. I know the exact way I would do it and the arguments I would use. I’ve just suggested one.

But I’m a villager, and I think I caught marshal shoving a wolf into the towncore. I may still change my mind, but that is what I currently believe based on Marshal’s overall treatment of Marl.

Keep this in mind if I do get killed, and do not clear Marshal.

@Vulgard

@Marshal

I never, never, never never never said or hinted at during EoD1 that crich flipping town made marl look wolfier in my eyes. a crich town flip doesn’t change my marl read. That was very clear.

And that’s a problem, because you had been thinking their argument was V/W.

Marshal is not evaluating my alignment. She is arguing about the nature of my read and getting worked up over how I am “misrepresenting her,” but she isn’t actually saying anything about me .

This is purely performative. Don’t get distracted.

@Vulgard

@Marshal

an argument that I think is bad faith

I explained what you did, explained when it could’ve come from a villager, explained when it could’ve come from a wolf, and matched the hypotheticals to the facts, leaving with the conclusion that you are more likely to have done this as a wolf than as a villager.

I don’t see what’s bad faith about it. It would only be in bad faith if I considered solely one world of the two, or if I twisted the facts.

@Marshal

regardless of my alignment this comes from the depths of my soul

And I’d expect you to know that if you’re a villager, you’re wasting everyone’s time because no one cares.

@Vulgard

@Marshal

If you want to explain why me saying marl is v regardless of crich flip is bad then be my guest. But you were saying that the fact i didn’t touch on crich flip d2 was wolfy, which i refuted

That’s a problem, because you’re changing your stance on Marl to “Marl is probably just always V” despite previously believing Marl/Chloe contains a wolf, before seeing Chloeslot’s flip . Villagers can change their mind, but if you were a villager, I’d expect you to have this at the back of your mind, still. At least consider that it might mean something. You didn’t. You started D2 with plopping Marl into the towncore without further thoughts about the d1 wagon. That’s wolfy, because you’re entering day 2 with a predetermined plan to install a wolf in the towncore. Sure, you might not have known Marl’s alignment as a villager, but in that case, why go “Marl is town town town” when previously in the game, you were like “Marl/Chloe v/w?” Wouldn’t you have at least some reservations about this?

[Arete]

Also I have another question for Blizer which is how much of your Marshal read is dependent on lol being scum

if lol were suddenly confirmed town to you then how would that affect your read on Marshal

[Vulgard]

@Arete

spec chat counts if you were uninformed

I remember making a read like that in specchat. Don’t remember when, or on whom, though.

[Vulgard]

Brb. Before I get back, here’s something for you to ponder about.

The extent of Eli’s analysis D2:

Summary

“lol wolf”

“PKR wolf”

Reasoning:

“PKR asked to be wagoned and that’s wolfy”

No reasoning given for lol wolf. Promises to case lol but never delivers on it.

Noting that his treatment of me vs Marshal does not come across as if he cares at all.

The extent of Eli’s analysis D3:

Summary

“lol and PKR wolves, lol moreso than PKR.”

Reasoning:

“bad tone”

“no good pushes”

“makes no sense”

This is for lol. No real reason given for PKR.

–

It’s a step above doing nothing, but he dropped off hard since day 1.

[Blizer]

@Arete

how is lol’s suggestion to let the yeet rang wolfy

Found it.

I think its wolfy in the sense that it kinda changes nothing in terms of the wolves narrative in a way.

Me and PKR would still be in the PoE and would be heavily pushed for as yeet.

Also on that, once again, PKR is misyeet bait i swear to god

[Hippolytus]

Yeah it’s a bad look if lol slot is mafia, I’m happy to admit that. But lol slot saying it’s a bad look doesn’t make sense to me.

[Arete]

wow that doesn’t help me at all

(you made a read like that on lol and I was trying to figure out if it was something you actually believed or an attempt at agenda-pushing)

w/e I don’t think you’re lying about the spec chat thing, I’ll trust that you at least believe that that can be a reason to wolfread people regardless of whether you were using it for a real or a fake read

[Blizer]

@Arete

Also I have another question for Blizer which is how much of your Marshal read is dependent on lol being scum

if lol were suddenly confirmed town to you then how would that affect your read on Marshal

I would be less confident tbh on that, But her behaviour surronding PKR’s slot and how he acted during the EoD was really wolfy imo in terms of how he is pushing is narrative.

I think it also makes Derps look worse, and i would need to go through both these slots, cause as i stated, i view that interaction between the both of them EoD to be more T/W than anything else.

[Arete]

I’m not saying ‘you voted a villager, which is wolfy,’ I don’t think that voting PKR is wolfy, I’m saying ‘you voted a villager in a way that deflected responsibility onto another player, which is a common way for wolves to vote people they know are villagers’

the issue is the reasoning not the actual vote

[Hippolytus]

But i was already voting lol so I would not need to give a reason to change my vote to a villager if lol is v

[Blizer]

But to full answer that, its independant enough that i wolfread marshal, but lol being wolf truly soldifies the slot being wolf, while also making derps look townier as a result.

[Hippolytus]

But i wouldn’t have even needed to vote in first place

[Blizer]

also Ill be gone in like half an hour

im gonna try to be on as much as i can today, but im gonna be quite busy

[Arete]

hm

when you switched your vote to PKR, who were you expecting to flip? who were you expecting to flip if you kept it on lol?

[Vulgard]

@Arete

w/e I don’t think you’re lying about the spec chat thing, I’ll trust that you at least believe that that can be a reason to wolfread people regardless of whether you were using it for a real or a fake read

To be fair, it’s in that one MU guide everyone read.