We’re definitely sleeping today, but.
We need a voting order tomorrow. I think the clearest person alive who everyone agrees is town is Hippo, so letting him decide should be optimal, but he also said something to the effect of “he’s just sheeping because his reads have been bad” recently, so I’m not sure if that’s a good idea?
Marshal is the other option, but Arete is likely to veto it because of how Marshal treated Blizer yesterday. I wouldn’t veto it myself, at least not right now.
I don’t have that many thoughts. I’m just sitting in the thread, waiting for other people to post. It might seem strange, considering my worldview has just been shattered by Blizer’s V flip, but yeah.
The way I see this game is that I have four people in front of me that need resolving. I’ve been tunneling Arete for a big part of the game - ever since they replaced in, really - and I’m once again uncertain of their alignment. Making reads is difficult. This is why being mafia is cooler than being town.
Atlas has done absolutely nothing of value for the past two days. I can’t really say they’ve been negative utility, they just haven’t been contributing and it’s difficult for me to read them. There isn’t anything in the ISOs of the dead wolves that would tell me whether Atlas is mafia.
It’s not the same for Eli. Eli has been contributing a little more, although the last few days have been really bad from him. It feels like he’s trying to go under the radar. The reason I’ve been clearing him, aside from me assuming Blizer was mafia and saying Eli was town based on the Blizer read, is that… well… If he’s mafia, and if Arete is also mafia, then it would mean Marl exclusively pushed his partners on day 1 - if you exclude the Chloe slot, from which he backed off anyway. So, yeah, I just don’t think it’s likely.
I know Marl is a busser, but also I don’t think he busses so hard from day 1 that he just scumreads partners and doesn’t even try to push villagers. To be fair, we were pushing villagers just fine by ourselves, but still. Marl also didn’t really try to do anything when Eli was a viable wagon close to the end of the day 1, and I feel like he would care more if Eli was mafia. He would at least push someone, do something. The one push I remember from him was the one on Derps, which we now know was for the sake of distancing, as I pointed out earlier. So, Marl not really scumreading villagers in that world just doesn’t sit right with me. I would assume Eli isn’t partnered with Marl based on that.
This assumes that Arete is mafia, but even if Arete isn’t mafia, it doesn’t really change that much, because Marl didn’t really try to push the lol slot at any point during the game. And if Arete/lol were the villager slot in Marl’s PoE, then I assume he would at least attempt to push them… He did push them on day 2, but that was cut short by min’s tracker claim. Honestly, I wish it wasn’t now, because then I could read into it better, but hey.
This is my headspace regarding the Eli slot and why I think it’s town. However, I do recognize that Eli hasn’t been contributing much. It’s in the same boat as Atlas, except Atlas is even less invested than Eli at this point.
If I want to vote with my heart, then I would actually go Atlas at this point, because I feel like there are things going for Eli and the only reason we are clearing Atlas is that their ISO is mildly villagery, because he’s actually been giving reads and stuff - which is honestly a really low bar. Eli has been giving reads as well, and at this point I’m not sure if I want to give Atlas a pass for playing like this - as in, giving reads, because that’s not that much.
Another good thing about voting Atlas is that not a single flipped wolf has talked about Atlas. Nobody has been interested in discussing Atlas, and Atlas hasn’t been interested in discussing anyone recently, which feels like Atlas is trying to slip by - and also gives Atlas a lot of wolf equity with every single player left alive.
Hippo is still town, and if he’s mafia, then he is playing wildly out of meta - and at this point I am giving him the win.
I don’t really want to discuss the quickhammer yesterday. I feel like it was a Forum of Lies moment, and I don’t even think it’s necessarily alignment indicative for Marshal. I know Marshal has a lot of courage as a mafia member, but I don’t think convincing a villager to quickhammer themselves is within Marshal’s wolfrange, as funny as it is to say. The reason I don’t think wolf Marshal does this is that wolf Marshal is already being towncleared. Doing something so obviously suspicious forces Marshal to towncase herself - and makes the game harder for her, harder than it needs to be.
Sure, it’s possible I’m underestimating Marshal here, but honestly, I’m just rolling with it at this point.
Oh, and by the way, Blizer, I am sorry. I’m just trying not to let this affect my game, and still trying to win without dwelling on it too much. I hope you can forgive that.
I’m not sure why I am apologizing when you quickhammered yourself and made it downright impossible for people to find you town, but yeah.
I kinda see the strategic advantage in this, because we can’t solve around your wolf flip when we see your villager flip. I even considered it myself a couple of days back, but yeah.
So for me, this is basically down to who is the villager in Arete, Eli or Atlas. I think the way Arete has been really annoyed about the quickhammer is village indicative, but I also feel bad townreading such a thing, because I feel like a wolf could fake negative emotions surrounding that. Arete’s case against me wasn’t in bad faith. Also, when I had the scumread on Blizer, I put Arete as a wolf by association – but Blizer flipped village, so this entire association is meaningless now.
Marl’s treatment of Eli looks fairly good for Eli. Derps doesn’t really have associations, so I’m not talking about his.
The problem with Eli is that the best thing for him is how Marl treated him. If you go back to what I said about Eli earlier, about Marl’s treatment of Eli, then if Arete is a villager, it’s theoretically possible Marl was trying to distance with his partners because none of them were strong and he was preparing to bus. And by strong, I mean “considered strong wolves.”
I mentioned the concept of a deepwolf earlier today. I think “deepwolf” doesn’t necessarily mean “townread by everyone” – it means “someone under the radar” in this context, and I think Atlas fits this perception the best, but so could Eli. Eli is being townread because of Marl’s treatment of him, at least by me. Him giving actual reads in the early game is also theoretically townmeta.
That said, I think everyone can agree he really fizzled out. We’ve been trying to solve the game for the past two days, going against each other, and he hasn’t taken a single stance on anything, ever. Honestly, I think that’s the most damning thing, because it looks like he doesn’t really care what happens – because we are townreading wolves, so it doesn’t matter who we kill first, which villager. He’s content playing under the radar and not contributing, because the way the game is going, he doesn’t need to – we’re going to lose either way.
Let me know what you think about this.
In my current headspace… This might surprise you and you might meme this to hell, because Arete has just started townreading me again, I think… but I really do think Arete might be a villager among these three. Maybe. I’m not yet convinced.
I could see Arete being with Eli. At the same time, though, I don’t really see the point in Arete calling Blizer’s end of day two days ago villagery, when Blizer’s a very easy misyeet for Arete in every world. You could argue that Blizer was going over, regardless, but it feels like unnecessary performativeness to me in a world where Arete is indeed mafia.
Also, this is perhaps even more important, but there are easier paths for Arete to win than scumreading me and butting heads against me. Consider this: I am very wrong about the game. Arete can just let me yeet Blizer instead of defending Blizer. I take most of the blame for this. Arete can then try to misyeet me and use this as an argument that I’m pushing agenda. I couldn’t defend against it.
Arete’s continued insistence that I am mafia, but they’re not being listened to, that our actions are annoying them, the quickhammer, skipping of the night… It all reads as villagery to me, if I’m being honest. You could say they are playing it up to look villagery, but I don’t think Arete needs to do this, and I think that their approach would be different if they were mafia.
The problem is that this leaves me with a team of Atlas and Eli exactly. But then… actually, what then? Maybe it isn’t a problem. Maybe it is the team, and we’ve just been going on goose chases instead of killing obvious scum. That would make me feel really bad, but we have to consider this.
Actually, I found another thing. Look at this post.
Scumreading me for pushing Derps over Blizer if Arete is a wolf makes no sense whatsoever. Arete, as a wolf, knows my push on Derps is correct, so writing this post doesn’t really make much sense. They could write this as a lie, but it doesn’t give them anything. In fact, it makes it more difficult for them to scumread me after Derps flips. I don’t think wolf Arete writes this.
Also, there is something to be said about Arete claiming I was trying to make Blizer look bad, because in hindsight, it really does look like I was just trying to make Blizer look bad and misyeet him. I hate admitting this, but it’s true.
You could make the argument Arete was trying to defend Derps, but I think the argument would be bad, because Arete never really defended Derps – they were just shrugging at a Derps yet.
This post is villagery, too. In fact, very much so. It has this mildly annoyed villager perspective, not “I’m lying, I’m not evaluating you, but I will pretend I am.”
This copypasta is also villagery! For similar reasons!
I’m leveling myself into thinking it’s Eli and Atlas, and we are all massive idiots, and I - chiefly among them.
But I need other people’s input, because, clearly, I do not have a good grasp on this game, considering how many villagers I’ve gotten killed.
Actually, another argument in favor of Atlas being a wolf.
Atlas has experience in Untrusted, and I assume someone with a few months of experience in Untrusted is capable of having reads as mafia. This is, like, the bare minimum. Untrusted isn’t forum mafia, but still. Don’t Forum of Lies players develop the capability to make reads as mafia after a few months of play as well?
Also, when you look at Atlas’s mechanical posts, they look like they were written to look helpful. I don’t remember Atlas ever making any conclusions based on these mechanical posts – they just throw them into the thread and do nothing with them.
mmmmkay
gonna do the 'ol self towncaseo, shouldn’t take super long but i’d like to solidify my positioning
Really, a consistent problem in Atlas’s entire gameplay in this game is that they have never taken the initiative. They have just been answering questions instead of doing much themselves.
Why I’m town: Part 1: arctic stuff
This was immediately extreeeeeeeemely PR-y, this type of post alone almost always comes from a pr who’s very aware that they should try to live and trying to WiFoM everyone out of it. Didn’t really care about the PR read at that point but this post is one of the PRy-est out there.
A bit later I read over his iso and realized that he never once mentioned his own slot or showed any awareness of the self after that which I also thought was PR-y, because he didn’t really ever show any consideration of himself from the perspective of an elimination or being sussed (something that VTs and wolves can both do naturally but PRs have to specifically fake).
I was sorta confident at that point so iirc I threw out a random townread and either made up reasons for it or didn’t explain and then he posted this
like you could theoreeetically see it from a vt who is trying to look PR-y or whatever but about 95% of the time a PR who is aware of their slot being too good and trying to jokingly level themselves out of it. I was p locked in for the rest of the game after this, went over it again a few times but overall only grew in confidence
so yah that’s it
This is nearly entirely made up, although the last part was a thought independant of his status in my mind as PR. “His reads make sense you can see how he got there etc etc.” is p obvi bs if you look into it. I’d prob be townreading him regardless but this for example was just made up
This was a mix of genuine-ness and realizing they were neighborizer
I realized that basically nobody ever neighborizes appelsiini but their claim existed to disprove marl, which is why I hard defended the slot the entire day. Nooooooot super clearing in the end there because they, yknow, died, but i did have that.
another one
another one, appelsiini version
You can see the points where I tried to put derps as neighborizer to throw off wolves
this @ night, another one where i try to clue them in, gonna stop with the night ones because its clear i knew but that’s not clearing
ATP I had locked him in as doctor, this was a post to really hammer it home. I had never once wavered past this point.
I don’t really think this is in the realm of fakeable for myself, I think I could pull out pretending to think arctic is doctor but my treatment of him has been consistent across 4 days of knowing and there’s not really other explinations for a lot of the posts ive made. Seeing as PRs died before he did after d2 it’s not really clearing to have known arctic was doctor, but it’s more or less proven that I did and i had consistently kept it up far before I, if wolf, would have known i was doing this.
if anyone has any more questions on how/why I knew I can answer them
Thought i’d pop this in before part 2:
In my reading in the morning I wasn’t really able to rule out an atlas/eli team from a perspective of their posts not being aligned, in fact I think atlas treated eli slightly partnery?
I still need to figure out if atlas can be w/w with vul and w/w with arete because GTH both are ‘not really’ but i’ll finish the towncase on myself first, because while i’d personally rather not I understand the threshold for my wolfplay is very high or at least percieved as such so i’m gonna do it anyways
