Marshal declares there is probably a wolf between Marl and Chloe. Sure, you can walk away from that.
At EoD, she has convinced herself that Marl could be V regardless. This is when CRich is essentially lined up to be yeeted.
Note that CRich hasn’t flipped yet. So, basically, it looks like Marshal is switching her read on Marl in the last moments before it’s revealed the Chloe slot was V.
Now, why is this not a villager simply changing their mind? It could be. This part, I could still believe comes from a villager.
What matters is what comes after.
Day 2 begins, and Marshal barges in. After the Chloeslot V flip, Marshal thinks Marl is top town. Now, keep in mind that Marshal initially thought Marl vs Chloe was V/W, and toward the end of day 1, she started thinking Marl was a villager. This is fine.
What isn’t fine is that CRich’s V flip doesn’t even seem to be a factor here. Marshal’s stance at EoD1 was “okay, I think Marl might be a villager even if CRich flips town, and if CRich flips wolf he’s lock clear.” Marshal’s stance on day 2 is that Marl is top town. It doesn’t follow. Marl’s thunderdome target being V should warrant more scrutiny on Marl, not less. Marshal gaining more confidence in her V read on Marl after originally thinking Marl and Chloe were V/W does not make sense. I know she changed her Marl read at EoD1, but the read was still there. You can’t just townread someone harder after it’s revealed they argued with a villager.
A world where you do want to do this is a world where you know Marl is a wolf, because in that case, you know he’s going to look worse after the CRich flip. If you’re not planning to bus (and based on the eod 1 progression steps, wolf!Marshal definitely doesn’t plan to bus here), you want to solidify his position in the game. Claiming he’s a villager despite the flip and pointing to his tunnely behavior, similar to his towngame, is a great idea. …For a wolf who knows what she’s doing. Without knowing Marl’s a wolf, we’d likely believe this. Marl was decently townread on day 1, and Marshal’s words about Marl during day 2 (as loud as they were) would prevent us from scrutinizing him more deeply, or at least discourage us. There would be another wolf in the towncore.
But Marshal didn’t know Marl was tracked to the nightkilll at the time. Obviously, now she has to claim it was a mistaken read change, there is nothing else she can do. Would I expect that from a villager? Absolutely. But Marshal’s attitude here as she’s responding to my case feels more like a wolf annoyed she got caught, rather than a villager shoved into the PoE by mistake. The AtE element is one part of this interpretation, and the instant retaliation is another. I’m being accused of framing the situation against her when I simply think her read swap on Marl is unjustified from a V perspective. And I have just reasoned out why I think that read change is super wolfy.
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