[SFM] Evolution Mafia [Mafia wins]

If Marshal is a wolf (and yes, I do think this is still possible), Jake’s behavior around the wagons is unbelievably wolfy. It still looks bad if Marshal is a villager, but not as bad.

I haven’t quite analyzed all of the Amelia voters yet, even though I despite that wagon for what it was. Amelia was a trapped and possibly scared villager. The votes there were being cast too easily in great amounts, and I even pointed it out in the thread. I wasn’t around to stop it during last EoD, but I hope to influence this EoD at least.

I don’t really like this worldbuilding. Why can’t Jake be a wolf if Marshal is a villager?

I meant more or less as a scum team. Bringing the vote to a tie from Jakes perspective could mean that he didn’t care who was lynched, a la scum. I think the vote is bad, but its hard to determine the intent of the vote without flips.

I still feel the wagon goes awry on the Katze vote, and I think the likeliest possibility was the attempt to push the wagon overboard to drown the N.1 wagon.

Jake can absolutely be a wolf with Marshal as villager. It would explain his screwing around at EoD – wagons were V/V and it was “whatever” from his perspective.

If Marshal is a wolf, it means that Jake was wolfreading his buddy all day only to votepark elsewhere – distancing. From the PoV of a villager, it means that Jake… I don’t know what it means if he’s a villager. There is no reason to randomly drop your read and vote Amelia. Jake didn’t even have a read on Amelia. He just randomly voted there and kept voting there. This is not villagery behavior. You vote your wolfread, not a random null, and if you changed your mind, you’d better post it there. It’s helpful.

If Marshal is a villager, it still shows that Jake does not care about his reads and has an invisible thought process. Both are wolfy regardless of how you slice it. Jake and Marshal don’t have to be W/W for Jake to be a wolf.

To sum up: the screwing around at EoD is bad regardless of wagons. If wagons were V/V, it means Jake had no reason to care and therefore was screwing around. If he was a villager who cared, he would probably be voting Marshal, his wolfread, over Amelia, his null. Right? Clearly his read on Marshal never changed, judging by his SoD2. And yet, he did not vote Marshal.

If wagons were V/W, it means Jake randomly voted the counterwagon to his partner, which… yeah, that one is pretty self-explanatory.

I’m not going to evaluate Marshal’s side of Jake interactions until Marshal flips, because I don’t want to preflip anything. Regardless, I don’t think Jake has been playing like a villager, more like a performative wolf. His votes, noncommittal behavior, derailing the thread and asking dozens of questions with an invisible thought process (don’t you ask people questions to trigger a thought process??) all point to him being a wolf and not a villager. If he’s a villager, he’s not just against contributing to the game, he’s actively hindering his faction by messing around with no purpose. Not voting his wolfreads, not committing to anything, not trying to find the wolves. Just voting random people and nullreads with no explanation, and keeping his thought process hidden for no reason.

In Clash of Cults, where Jake was a villager (and where I mislynched him), Jake’s point of view was clearly different. He actively made an effort to read people and committed to interactions much more, he wrote ISOs and voted his wolfreads. None of that is present in this game. Read his Clash of Cults ISO (it’s not very long) if you don’t believe me.

This is a bit world-build-y. Why does Jake have to be bussing here? Do you feel bussing is the optimal play?

You’re absolutely right. To be quite honest, I think these sorts of plays need to be curbed with policy lynches. Players like Jake and Derps get away with them because they are considered NAI for those two but for anyone else its common wolf behavior. Id lynch him off that alone.

If Marshal flips villager, it looks considerably worse for Jake because it could indicate that Jake just didn’t care which wagon flipped…as long as one flipped. Its weird though, like…why wouldn’t he just stay off the two major wagons if Marshal flips town? It seems like a bad scumplay if Jake flips scum.

Who is normally pretty good at reading Jake, Arete? I feel like maybe @Arete can help us out here.

This is Aretes read. Gonna post it and look on it.

Absolutely. A lot of people didn’t like what Marshal was doing. It’s only natural to bus if he looks like the day’s lynch. If Jake and Marshal are W/W, that was definitely the original play before Jake realized he could help save Marshal by voting on Amelia, which is why he did it. Except he did not know how to convincingly fake a thought process, so he just… didn’t have a thought process at all. Yup, I think that’s pretty much what happened if Jake/Marshal are W/W. Jake initially wanted to bus Marshal, then he realized he could save Marshal and ended up doing that instead.

The above train of thought applies if Marshal is a wolf. If Marshal is a villager, I’m thinking Jake hopped off his wagon to be a little safer, because I’m convinced that a Marshal V flip would make people much more inclined to read into his accusers (Marshal had many more interactions with living players than Amelia; people would be more inclined to read into the accusers). Or the wolfteam was trying to spread the votes around the wagons and Jake decided to be on Amelia, but that’s reading into it too much, I think. It’d require some quite good coordination from the wolves.

Either way, I can see several reasons why a wolf would be a doing what Jake is doing, and little to no reasons why a villager would.

Again, I don’t like the fact you are calling upon a person I wolfread to help you. But I’m probably just confbiasing myself here.

Lil’ bit :man_shrugging:

Jake is a unique case. Its like trying to figure out molecular theory; you need to find an expert scientist, not a how Schmoe off the street.

If you want to find your own expert scientist please do because I would love to figure Jake out.

Joe Schmoe *

Autocorrect loves me

My track record with Jake of most recent:

ToSFM, he was SK who I mistakenly cleared and hung a villager instead. Mind you, I was also villager.

I’m certainly not gonna touch Jake after that atrocity.

@Vulgard Do you believe that an Arete/Jake team has scum equity? I can see this as a possibility

Would rather flip Jake and see the flip before attempting to look for associations. Clearly, Arete is not getting lynched today despite my certainty about their tone not being their villager tone – which is why Jake is my only choice here, really.

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Find me an expert Jake-ologist please :pray:

I am jakeologist

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Teach us, Senpai

I spen time and came to conclusion

Jake is

null

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guys unironically my gf has had to go home cuz of coronavirus closing borders so im actually gonna have loads of time to play lmao.

get ready for pro Hippolytus.

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