Read the post below. I’m tired of people voting off my wagon and flipping villagers at EoD.
My takeaways from EoD are the following:
- Ici’s EoD was highly villagery. I’m putting him back into the towncore. He actually deliberated and tried to do things instead of just doing random things on the sidelines.
- Leafia sounds really pure throughout. I still think they are a legitimate mason pair (-ish) with Apprentice.
- Zone keeps being anti-town, and while I think that his behavior at EoD was more towny than not (because it was just so dumb to keep going back and forth with Leafia over trivial things), it’s not the type of good villaging I like – and it could still come from a wolf. He didn’t really do anything productive back there. I would still say he’s a villager, but I’m not convinced.
- Marshal’s EoD was hot garbage. He kept dragging on the argument with eevee, then built a “case” on Oblight, then completely forgot it apparently, because he quickhammered a villager. I don’t care about his explanation whatsoever. I think he’s lying. Marshal’s perfectly aware of what he did back there, and he’s firmly out of the towncore by now for being a huge benefit to the wolves yesterday. He could still be a villager who made a mistake, but I’ve had my reservations about the slot earlier (such as having a giant postcount, but little actual direction and solving in proportion, in my opinion), and this only solidified them.
I was trying to wagon Vader and the wagon was completely deserted. Instead everybody piled on Gorta despite the fact he was getting votes too quickly, and despite the fact he was actually trying to help town, unlike the other person being wagoned. I’m not excusing myself here – I do have some responsibility, because I didn’t stop the wagon. However, Marshal cutting off the day made me unable to comment on it, which is why I hated that move so much. Hopefully I’m not biased here, I just don’t think he does something so silly as a villager.
Vader still needs to be resolved, and I’m tempted to shoot him right now, but I think holding my ITA should be more beneficial. I think Vader is still a wolf and nothing he did today has convinced me otherwise. That said, I think it’s time to re-evaluate, like I announced yesterday. Hopefully I’m healed, because I want to be alive to solve this game and this time finally convince you all not to do stupid stuff at EoD. That quickhammer made me facepalm and I almost abandoned all hope.
People like Kyo, who are posting but not really solving, are still alive, and it’s possible that Marshal is a wolf creating mischief in the town. I know that Chloe said that he was almost certainly a villager, but it’s possible they are both flat out lying – especially since we now have a new claimed mason pair between Derps/Oblight. And I believe them completely. I think the way the claim was delivered was really towny, and Derps outing it so late while trying to push Marshal didn’t seem like some weird agenda in light of the flip.
The top wagon was town. Trying to CFD off of it, unless it was a CFD into another villager, was towny. And even if it was another villager, it’s still more towny than not. A wolf would have no need to shift the wagons by pushing a villager and claiming mason to incriminate them. There is absolutely no need to take that risk when the day still ends in a mislynch, given the vote spread and thread direction. So yeah, Derps is just town, like I’ve been saying for the majority of the game, and so is Oblight, like I also said when I first brought forward his lack of TMI.
So where do I stand right now? The only people in the original PoE I have left are Vader (still), Zone (still), possibly eevee. I’d say eevee/Marshal are never W/W, but these are the exact players who could and would engage in wolf theater at EoD, especially since the top wagon was a villager.
Kyo is firmly in the PoE for not bothering to actually solve the whole game, and also because his claim makes no sense. Not only is it a really strong village PR in comparison to the villagers who’ve already flipped, but it’s also the only way he could supposedly be “cleared.” I will say this: Kyo is an FPSer regardless of alignment. Clearing him because he claimed X role is the easiest way to misclear a wolf, ever. This guy claims that he’s the 4th player with X class when the class cap is 3 and there are 3 other existing claims. As a wolf. Just look at the most recent RM4. And he gets away with it because people clear him for it. It’s dumb. Don’t do it. Don’t ever do it.
Marshal needs to be slotted directly into the PoE for that terrible, terrible quickhammer last EoD and his general behavior throughout. It’s like he was more interested in arguing with eevee than actually lynching a wolf, and even though he made a case on Oblight as a result of my request, he still ended up quickhammering gorta just because. Yeah, I am not going to tolerate this whatsoever.
By extension, Chloe should be slotted into the PoE too. Her EoD showcases a narrow look on the game. She’s focused on two things: gorta being scum and Marshal being town, and also on doing VCA. While none of these are directly harmful to the town, I think that she’s struggling to look at the broader picture. I still can’t decide how scummy this is, quite frankly. I have a stronger suspicion of Marshal than the one I have of Chloe. But her lack of evaluation is not a good look, and if it continues despite the fact we’ve been lynching town all the time… then yeah, she’s possibly a wolf who doesn’t care. She’s been hyperfocused on her claim, on Marshal, and on calling the top wagon scum when it was a villager. I don’t think I need to reiterate why these things are scummy. It’s a narrow perspective when we need to look at the game holistically.
My reads now:
Arete
Hippo
Like I said, I’m never re-evaluating there. These two are lock town and they’ve been consistently towny. Godread on Arete says town, and Hippo is great at looking town when he rands V – which is what he randed this game, I’m sure.
Derps
oB_L1ght
Somewhat conditional upon them being masons, but I wholeheartedly believe them as of right now.
Icibalus
PKR
Apprentice
Leafia
I still read them town. Apprentice and Leafia drop if Marshal/Chloe are town (lolmasonclaims). PKR has been rather villagery all game, and just like with Oblight earlier, I don’t think he has TMI (but I can’t be arsed to make a case explaining why that’s true). Icibalus had a highly villagery EoD which mostly removes my suspicion of him, so he’s back up here.
CRichard564
I personally think this is town, but he’s less villagery than the others and a potential deepwolf if he’s really good at mimicking his village play. The only reason I think he’s town is because I don’t think he would be this good at imitation during his first wolfgame. If I’m underestimating him, then I’ll take it. The possibility lingers in my mind, which is why he’s below the people above.
Note: Marshal and Chloe can still be villagers who aren’t thinking straight. Just like EVO was a villager put in an unfortunate position and losing his cool, and like gorta was an awkward, self-aware villager who had no idea how to get out of his situation either. But I can’t just ignore the things the two of them did.
Note 2: If they are both town, then I think I miscleared Apprentice/Leafia. There is no way three mason-like pairs exist in a 24er. Too many cleared town. Either somebody’s being dumb and not considering the posibility of their partner being scum, or there is a fake pair.
TheBlueElixir
Zone_Q11
These two slots are fair game. Gun-to-head I would say that TBE is the wolf, if there is a wolf here. It’s kinda weird how he’s been suspected all game, but never seriously pushed. It reminds me of the pushback against a Seth lynch. I would start an experimental wagon on him just to see if a gorta 2.0 happens (people piling on the wagon just because they can, which is a huge sign of the target being a villager or a wolf who’s being bussed). A note I have here is that no wolf has been properly bussed this game – and if you recall the Seth lynch, you know it’s true.
eevee
A neutral claim, which is why I have him here, almost smack-dab in the middle. I think he’s been more pro-town than most of the villagers, and Marshal’s tinfoil about him fakeclaiming with Light and Derps was just that – a silly tinfoil, because he was tunneled or a wolf pushing some weird agenda.
KyoDaz
I wrote earlier in this post why I think this slot deserves to be shot. That said, considering I suspect Marshal and Marshal was pushing Kyo, it’s possible this is a villager. Possible. But not likely.
Darth_Vader
While I will say that it’s still possible for this to be a wolf, because the wagon on him was weirdly frozen and he did something tantamount to antispew from my perspective, I am re-evaluating now and there are potentially better targets. I still want him dead to resolve yesterday’s wagons unless he becomes blatantly villagery.
Marshal
Chloe
These two are always together unless Chloe made a horrible mistake. I think Marshal hasn’t been good yesterday at all, and there are things about Chloe this game which also bother me to some extent. All in all, I don’t like these two.
This is pretty much where I stand right now, after trying to re-evaluate and looking at the game holistically. Apprentice/Leafia could be wolves conditional on what alignment Chloe and Marshal are. I don’t think Derps/Oblight are ever wolves, unless they pulled a ballsy play with the mason claim at EoD. That said, I don’t know what the wolf motivation for that would be. Not only do I suspect Marshal too, but Derps basically tied himself to someone for the entire game and outed as a mason despite the top wagon being on a villager. As a wolf, he could just… push the villager without claiming, and leave the mason claim for tomorrow if he really wanted to do it.
Shot list (revised):
Zone_Q11
TBE
eevee (Neutral claim. Personally wouldn’t shoot, because we need to flip actual wolves, and he’s been pro-town despite the questionable things he’s said this game. I know I advocated a shot on Italy, but that was back when we could afford it. I don’t think we can do that anymore.)
Darth_Vader (Unless he significantly improves.)
KyoDaz
Chloe
Marshal
Apprentice/Leafia should be shot if Chloe/Marshal are town, because if I compare Oblight/Derps to Apprentice/Leafia, the former are a little townier. Right now, I do read Apprentice/Leafia village, though.
This is pre-written and doesn’t take into account the flips during the night. If they change my view on things, I’ll immediately say so.
