Ping host to vote.
That’s false.
You brought up probablity of second psychotrooper yourself.
You didn’t discard it.
You just changed it in a way that it seems more realistic then it is, and when noone took it seriously, discarded it.
However, it was you who brought it in.
And you who adjusted it to support your own wold view.
Because the argument makes sense. Ami argued it well and I agree with her argument.
I’m not. I haven’t claimed anything about probabilities being in my advantage. I’ve said that the probabilities are small in both cases. And then I talked about choice-based points. About how I find it unlikely that given that the game is non-random in choices, the choices made would somehow line up perfectly two nights in a row. That’s not bending math. That’s saying: I don’t believe that the plays this game have been so specifically perfect such that a werewolf team has been screwed over. Especially when the existence of this werewolf team depends on a premise I know to be false: That I’m not town.
There have been no deaths of mafia faction players during the night phase. How is werewolves targeting mafia relevant? Or am I not understanding what you mean in this context by scum crosskill?
Sure, you got me. I threw away an argument predicated on something that doesn’t match the one indisputable fact I have this game: That I’m town. Like, I’m not sure what you’re meaning to catch here? This isn’t a perspective slip.
What questions do you feel I haven’t answered? Let me know. I’ll write you 1000 words on each of them.
Yeah, that doesn’t say that it’s more likely that the psychotrooper role is doubled than that the scum kills got blocked or protected. It says that the rolls are 2 or more out of 57 so saying 1/150 twice is not accurate and the numbers are higher than that. I see why you might have been confused, though.
I brought up a second psychotrooper because I know that my alignment is town. Since I don’t know the alignments or truthfulness of the claims of Chad or TL, there’s a chance that they are both true checks within the mechanics of the game and that a second psychotrooper exists. That said, I actually believe it’s more likely that at least Chad is scum. I don’t know what I think about TL, but it’s not relevant with a 90% plus certainty scumread (That’s not a probability, just a level of certainty) on Chad.
@Eevee - Like, you’re at least implying that I’m spending too much time on defending myself rather than on analysis. I’ve provided my own analysis. A decent amount of it. I’ve also offered to analyze ANYTHING that ANYONE asks me to analyze. I’m working on a follow-up post for Ghana for that exact reason. So I’m not sure where you’re getting this idea that I’m not focusing on contributing to analysis in the thread. Because my openly stated and pushed number one focus has been to contribute to analysis in the thread.
Again, I sorta wonder if you’ve actually been trying to read the game, or if you just felt “Oh, pushing Osie seems like a decent idea.”
or tsumugi
i really dont care at this point
we just kill one of those two cause either way its the same outcome
Question for you though, do you think its another mafia psychotrooper or do you believe its werewolf.
I mean if you quick hammer me your just throwing the game and I’ll probably just dip from playing on a forum that actually believes itws a good idea to hit the cop over the red check they got.
i mean considering the context that was a joke
I do think you might be mafia, but I think your red-check is 100% legit
Your welcome to ISO me its not like I have much posts 
I think this is a thing people keep forgetting. You are not locktown if you get a cop/seer check off. The anti-town factions want each other dead as much as the town wants them dead.
Not sure how you can believe im mafia with the way I handled a psychotrooper who incidcently was controlled by mafia.
If anything the only thing I could be here is werewolf outside of being town.