Yeah let’s pull through this into a flawless wolf victory awooooo
Taken from the belief that every succesful wagon has at least one group scum on it, I believe the group scum on Priestess is Blue. Earlier in the day he was advocating for a king lynch under the pretense that Baz was obvious EK because he said that EK wasn’t a threat. The gut reaction feels genuine but in retrospect wanting to start a wagon onto King at this point in time is incredibly opportunistic given that scum could the day after get up an EK of their own to enable a convert that night. This opportunism also extends to his vote on Priestess, which ends up flipping town.
Both of these votes followed consensus as well.
Blue even admits that he isn’t as focused on the day phase as he is on the night phase. This is extremely interesting given the fact that Blue softed killer in response to Marcus’s reaction test.
Shouldn’t HoB killers be focused on the day phase more than anyone else?
This seems like a slip of intention because Blue not only isn’t craning out their neck to take direct kills but also isn’t trying to create associations to justify a better vig target. It lacks much of a direction that I would expect from HoB Killer.
After all of this I believe that Blue essentially has to be scum.
His votes make better sense from scum PoV than town PoV.
He doesn’t take an active stance in discussion, (Votes follow this) which would make total sense if he didn’t feel the need to because no scum were wagoned during the day.
Given the HoB killer soft, his actions haven’t backed up his play. His play is passive, which contradicts Warrior/Crusader/Duelist in playstyle. He’s either Thamaturge or he’s not HoB killer.
Otherwise, I’d estimate one to two scum in Poss/Solic/Maxwell
They exist in thread and Solic is starting to look very ugly with most of his votes landing on known town. I’m less confident in this but he makes a very good d4 lynch given votes and lack of presence in thread.
Poss didn’t really commit at all and I didn’t like their shadethrow on me before end of day. It felt very defensive.
Maxwell exists. He’s in PoE.
Most likely - Least Likely if we go for 2scum
Solic/Poss
Solic/Maxwell
Poss/Maxwell
Marcus seems interesting. Their OG reason for voting seems poor but scum voting on “neut claim” seems very odd for how poor of a position it would put him in afterward. This goes back to the point I made d1 about how Marcus seems to lack a sense of self-awareness that scum would have.
Fairly strong town here
Math tried to start a thunderdome between htm/Priestess. My better judgement is saying scum, but I don’t think he understood how the passive removal worked.
His reason for pushing on Priestess was completely justified, and it seems like scum were content to let Math keep going by how little happened afterward.
I’d like to say townlean, but he’s still mostly null in my book.
And none of us could be on the wagon. We run the risk of getting lynched that same day bringing our numbers to 1 instead of 2. Lynching converts during the day is optimal.
Well Geyde can try to bus me, and I can try to bus him and winner is townfirmed. That’s a strategy
I mean if you want to live per say, just say the word Geyde, but don’t say it’s optimal, because that’s not true imo.
There is no real townfirmed in a game with conversion. Only starting Assassin can replace me, so you’re more valuable.
Yes but Geyde is already making a case for me and you to be checked. I think if Geyde doesn’t have the evidence, his push on me could look weak.
If we get rid of the Arbiter and eventually the NK, they won’t be able to keep us down with lynches alone and no convert protection (except for the Insurgent).
We’ll have too much promotion to fall back on.
This basically gives us a convert every night until the game is over and adds another promotion mechanic.
We could only really lose against perfect lynches or so then.
It’s correct assumption.
Math has been trying to set up mislynches hard.
Known doppleganger in game since Squid was tracked to dead person
Math is nonconvertable
I feel the Hja tunnel coming from the grave btw. 
I just wonder who it’s going to be aimed at.