The way Arete’s been acting, Soul is BD if Arete flips Corax.
I don’t think this is the best lynch imo
Luxy told me yesterday that I should be careful about clearing people based on my expectations, and I took that to heart.
So I tried to skim Wazza’s Iso for associations but unfortunately there kind of aren’t a lot of associations in it, due to the low post count. Here’s my best attempt at drawing associative reads from Wazza’s Iso?
Shades Alice + Vul while also townreading them. Not a super useful association at this point because Vul is basically locktown and Alice is dead opposite-scumteam.
Mild annoyance at Kai over the reaction test. I would normally see this as distancing but I actually think in this case it’s not (see below).
I don’t think scum!Wazza puts his scumbud as one of his two top scumreads in any situation short of an outright bus (this is based on SFoL 51 again, which is my main experience with scum!Wazza – after I was redchecked he was pushing me really hard, but before that I think he was townreading me).
His initial confusion here turns out to be because he thought Hunter was unique, and he retracts it a couple posts later, I don’t think it’s alignment indicative for Magnus (who is also greenchecked, so). It could in theory be AI for Kai but see below.
He votes Kai, then unvotes him again pretty quickly. The thing I will note here is that Wazza spent most of D2 not on any major wagon, including not pushing the Jake wagon over the Kai wagon at all. I think if Wazza is scum with Kai at this point he at least botheers to vote the Kai wagon, so associatively Kai was not scum at that point.
Evidence suggests he was basically willing to sheep the other cult when they were voted up! wow gosh that’s so useful. (I mean, it is actually slightly useful, because it can suggest that a failure to sheep a major wagon indicates that wagon had a scumbud of his on it, but the D3/D4 major wagons were all Mithras cult.)
Weird distancing thing from Vul again, but Vul is basically locktown at this point.
I think the dead BD and Wazza are probably not on a scumteam together 
Continues to sheep the major wagons. This does make me wonder if someone on a minor wagon was on his scumteam? I’d need to take a closer look at VCA to have a sense of this, I think at this point the only real wagons we wound up with were Mithras cultists.
This is in response to ‘Soul wouldn’t claim Drunk as Invoker.’ I’m honestly not sure how to read this, it seems like a joke that’s not really relevant, and I want it to tell me something about Soul’s alignment but it’s not.
Sheeps the redchecked Mithras cultist. This doesn’t really tell us anything.
Conclusions: Overall, I’m having a hard time getting any sort of useful associative reads from Wazza. I think Kai was probably BD on D2 because Wazza seemed basically happy with both wagons and didn’t vote either, nor push for either; given how close Kai came to being executed I think Wazza would have at least cast a vote on the Jake wagon. I also don’t think Kai ever gets converted N2 because the EoD2 consensus was more or less ‘Kai is the lynch tomorrow if Jake flips town.’
I do think it’s notable that he basically never interacts with Ozz or Soul in any way. Of course, he doesn’t really interact with anyone else either, but Ozz in particular is notable because he does interact a little bit with Kai when Kai does the fake redcheck thing, and he doesn’t with Ozz. I think he also didn’t vote Ozz when that happened, when he was mostly willing to sheep other random lynches.
I have an urge to OMGUS you because of that last paragraph, but I’ll bite my tongue. You’re right. I don’t ever recall Wazza and I really interacting with each other. It would be stupid of you to not keep me in your scum list after that.
So at this point I think the most likely scumteam (not certain, but most likely) is Soul/Ozz/{N4 convert, I’m not really sure who}. I’m putting Soul as starting and Ozz as convert in this particular lineup because Soul was inactive enough that he’s an unlikely N2 convert, whereas Ozz was getting somewhat townread after Kai’s reaction test and was also a Pally claim. Ozz also confirms like half the court as not-starting-Corax via his greenchecks – like, if Ozz isn’t cult at this point I don’t know who the cult is, unless I’ve been mistakenly clearing an awful lot of people. also it’s D5 and he’s a Pally with no finds
I still want @Italy’s check from last night, if Italy is still BD I think the check has the potential to break open the game.
/vote Ozz @anon97870008 @Solic
LOL. Who the hell would convert ME at any point during this game?
Don’t worry about it, I won’t.
I don’t think Kai gets converted ever. The way he’s been playing he’s consistently stayed in the PoE. He’s either starting scum or just BD.
Overall I like this post.
Also, I kinda started the bus on Soul, so…
Also, any greenchecks on people are almost certainly legitimate provided they come from real Paladins, I think if Corax had a Rit they’d’ve just had their Rit heal Wazza, which suggests that they don’t have a Rit, which means no Brotherhood.
Doesn’t bus mean to start a lynch on someone? I know bussing in ToL is to throw your teammate under the bus, but I thought it was used a little looser around here.