I know he’s not remotely mechanically confirmed but I really think the interactions or lack thereof between Kai and Wazza spew him as BD as of D2. Wazza’s D2 voting patterns suggest that he was willing to accept either major wagon.
Woo I am a little disoriented because I took a nap on the bus. Yeah PKR confirmed Soul’s N1, but I do believe he is more likely to be starting Invoker then Arete is.
As promised, my notes from last night:
My claims list and scum reads:
SoulShade55r = Drunk. Scum.
Kai_5 = Hunter. Scum.
Arete = Drunk. NS N1 (Italy). Town. Most likely convert N4.
Luxy = Mystic. Town. Confirmed town N3 (Marshal & Vul).
Italy = Paladin. Town. Confirmed town N3.
WazzaAzza = Physician. Town.
Jgoesgaming = Noble. Town. Bled D3 (Kai).
Vulgard = Physician. Town. Confirmed town N3.
Centuries = GOOD KING.
Teleology = Me (Priest).
Magnus = Hunter. Town.
OzzKozz = Paladin. Prevented N1 on Insanity. Scum.
H_Hja = CW. Town. Confirmed town N3 unless Rit (Ozz).
My plan for what town NEEDS to do in order to win – best case scenario. We are in for a ride:
This is how it’s gonna go best case scenario:
13 players left. - King = 12 players.
D5 = 4 Scum, 8 town, and King.
We lynch a scum optimally.
-1 scum
N5 = 3 Scum, 8 town, King.
They can’t kill or convert.
D6 = 3 Scum, 8 town, King.
-1 scum
N6 = 2 Scum, 8 town, King.
+1 scum.
D7 = 3 scum, 7 town, King.
-1 scum.
N7 = 2 scum, 7 town, King.
They can’t do anything.
D8 = 2 scum, 7 town, King.
-1 Scum.
N8 = 1 scum, 7 town, King.
+1 scum.
D9 = 2 scum, 6 town, King.
-1 scum.
N9 = 1 scum, 6 town, King.
No convert.
D10 = 1 scum, 6 town, King.
-1 Scum.
BD wins!
Oh god… it’s looking like a 10 day game.
Who dead think are evil:
Derps: Italy/Hja
Marshal: Ozz/Kai/Convert
Dat: Ozz/Arete
So there’s a couple problems with this plan.
-
We’re pretty sure Wazza was Corax CL who flipped himself as Paladin (see Vul’s wallpost earlier, and also there’s no real way for him to have died otherwise.
-
It turns out that newly-promoted CLs get two uses of eradicate, they aren’t shared between CLs.
Yeah the bad thing about that is I don’t think town can win unless you weren’t converted
…I guess the good news then is that I’m not? I’m honestly not sure why they didn’t go for me, unless the answer is ‘they did, but I was protected.’ It’s the sort of thing that makes me worry about all of our nice friendly mechanically-confirmed towncore members, but that’s a discussion for a couple days from now.
There’s a quote I read at some point that goes something along the lines of ‘if the only way you can win is by drawing the 8 of diamonds, play as if you will always draw the 8 of diamonds’ but that’s kind of a self-serving argument.
I mean, the Corax cult decided to eradicate N1 for no clear reason. I’m not sure we can trust that they’re making perfectly rational decisions here.
2 Likes
So where do we go from here. I think we’ve established a new town ore and someone needs to make a move.
I want to believe that Soul is scum, but here is my problem:
I also want to believe that Kai is town. And Ozz is going after Soul. Who is on his scum team?