[SFoL] 52 Clash Of Cults - The Blue Dragon are Victorious!

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#8403

I still want to lynch Kai.
Call me a tunneler, but I’ve already stated many reasons why Kai is a good lynch. It’s going to help us regardless of alignment.
Since we’ll be going down my PoE anyway and crossing people out as we lynch them, we will need to lynch Kai sooner or later because he’s not going to wiggle his way out of the group. As a result, trying not to lynch him now only postpones the inevitable.
The sooner we learn the information lynching Kai gives us, the better. Knowing what the final wagons were D2 will help us solve this game and likely further confirm my PoE everyone seems to be on board with.
All Kai is doing is trying multiple strats not to get lynched, including distancing with Derp. Pay it no mind and cast those votes.

Unless someone has something meaningful to say, like mechanical info that could turn this game around. But I severely doubt anybody has that. And if they do… my first instinct will be ‘lolreactiontest’ anyway.

#8404

I’ll be around at EoD if anybody wants to ask me questions. I believe going down the PoE is a surefire solution to this game that will end in a BD victory.
The only problem is the converts from now on, but we’ll handle that when we get to it.

#8405

Okay I don’t really want a town flip at this stage. Kai is correct when he says that we lose with a town flip. How can you be willing to lynch someone when you’re unsure of his alignment? I don’t like this at all. We LOSE tomorrow if a BD gets lynched. Do you understand this? It is very important that we get this correct. “He will always remain in PoE” < That’s why I’m asking people to check him. Were you converted last night?

#8406

By lose I actually mean “lose majority” to clarify

#8407

I wasn’t converted.
There’s a message in this thread that proves why and I noticed it. I don’t know if you did.

I’m like 95% sure Kai flips scum, and on the off chance he’s BD, there’s still information to be gained.

Look. This is my first ever multiball game, and I won’t pretend I know when the Cults will go after each other at night. Maybe it’s when we lose majority in comparison to them. Maybe it’s earlier than that. I don’t know what the objectively correct play for both scum factions might be.

I’m not sure if we really lose tomorrow if a BD is lynched now. Even with a BD flip, we’re 10v3v3. If 2 BD get killed and 1 converted, that puts us at 7v4v3, and that’s assuming all conversions succeeded. Which means numbers will be equal and Cult will be more inclined to lynch each other.

To be fair, we might lose even if we lynch correctly. There are still two Cults around and we just can’t lynch people quickly enough to keep up. We need to rely on Cultists attacking each other to some degree. The idea of ‘BD loses if a BD is lynched today’ reads as fearmongering to me, and fearmongering is something scum loves to do. We can still lose if we lynch Cult. It depends on what Cult does. We lost the ability to keep up with scum kill/conversion-wise the moment Prince lost his exes.

Basically, what I want to say is that I don’t believe lynching BD is a game-losing play in our current situation - even though I don’t think Kai is BD. The PoE gets narrowed down, and as long as Prince isn’t killed at night, we might still be able to pull this off if a CL gets jailed. As long as Prince jails in PoE, we might eventually hit a CL with jail.

I think I’m becoming wishy-washy, so I’ll end my response here. I just want to express that in my mind, we’re not losing ourselves the game or throwing by lynching Kai. If you want to narrow down the PoE by lynching someone else from it today, I’m not that opposed to it. But we would need to gather the votes.

And we will only find out if we can gather enough votes at EoD.

1 Like
#8408

Don’t really like the wagon still and it’s not because Cult is bussing each other / going after the other one

#8409

I have a feeling making that post was a mistake since I’m not very good at mechanics. I can’t imagine all of the possible night scenarios, when we are more likely to lose, etc.

I’m just expressing my feelings about this game. We either try to PoE our way to victory or risk mislynching because of doubting the PoE. Since most of my BD reads seem to agree on the PoE, we are going to run train across it no matter what. And I don’t think the order of lynches in the PoE matters (though I still have the argument lynching Kai solves D2 wagons).

Admittedly I have no idea how scum are going to treat the PoE. Are they going to kill inside the PoE or outside of it? No clue. I have no idea which is better, since they also need to predict each other’s actions. For now, however, I’m basing my strategy on the PoE.

Who would you lynch over Kai today? If a CFD is supposed to be possible, you need to be a part of it.

#8410

We can’t anymore imo

#8411

You need to consider the fact that BD don’t know who eachother are and it is going to be very difficult to get everyone on the same page if we are put in that type of situation. If we figure out the actual scum teams we can win the game by HHing or Jailing the new CLs. I know we have a GK, but I honestly don’t know who Kai’s scum partner would be. That’s why I am reluctant to lynch him. If he is scum he is the best FoL player I’ve ever met

#8412

You’re relunctant to lynch him because you’re probably culted

#8413

Is Insanity not also in your PoE? There are other options

#8414

Yawn. So you believe the agenda that Kai and Alice are pushing? Seems like they are reliable sources

#8415

It has to be Derps. The way they’ve been interacting all game… it’s just not a T/T or T/S series of interactions in my opinion.

#8416

No, I think I can do the thinking by myself.

#8417

But Kai has been pushing for Derp’s mislynch. I have a feeling it’s TvS and I don’t know which is which… that is why I want them to both be HH’d and checked.

#8418

I mean it’s either Derps being smart or just Kai playing really badly + getting pocketed by Derps

#8419

You think Kai is playing badly if he’s scum? Hard disagree.

#8420

If he’s Town. Anyway I think you’re pretty much lockscum from the post before that one

#8421

Well you’re wrong. I think we lose because of this if Kai is town, so I hope you guys are correct.

#8422

Need I say more