It still makes no sense as putting your wolfmate as a top scumread feels like it sticks out as a sore thumb, though. Arete’s one of my weakest TRs, though so I’ll probs wait more until making a solid judgment here.
Like, if Tele/Arete is a team, then it pretty much forces Tele to bus Arete the moment Arete catches suspicion otherwise it looks extremely bad for them.
Look at what Tele’s scumreads were and who she was actually pushing.
- Arete
- Magnus (later changed to Kai)
- Hja
- Sulit / DatBird
What does Tele do?
- ISOs Sulit (the last person on the list) and comes to the conclusion he’s not scum
- Changes Magnus’ #2 slot on the list to Kai, then proceeds not to interact with Arete or Kai
- Doesn’t do anything with Hja
It just doesn’t seem like BD play to mostly ignore your list of scumreads so soon after posting it.
That might be what Tele was trying to go for. Distancing? If Tele flips scum we could assume Arete is ‘cleared.’
Good point. I don’t think they’re 100% a team I just find this weird. Different Cult members maybe?
I need to ISO Arete because he/she mostly looks bad by association to me.
As promised, an Arete readwall. I know some people were worried about the possibility of opening up townreads to conversion but it’s not like there aren’t any forms of protection, and besides I don’t really expect ‘one person, who several people scumread, townreads this person’ to be a thing that influnces the CLs that much.
Townreads
Luxy: Townread. In particular, I like his progression on Kyo – he revisits the read a few times, modifying it on some of them, but he has fairly good reasoning for why he’s modifying it. This suggests to me that he’s town making genuine reads rather than scum trying to fake them; it’s very common for scum players to have weird progression.
Napoleon: Townread. I really like the depth of analysis Napoleon has been doing this game, and it feels more like a genuine attempt to gamesolve than not. I think if he were scum I’d see more signs of him setting someone up for a mislynch; as it stands, his posts feel more like a genuine attempt at solving.
SirDerps: Townlean. I like the Iso on Luxy, I haven’t seen Derps do one of those before. I think it’s unlikely that Derps would fake something like that as scum, unless they were being coached, and you honestly see that happen a lot less often than it’s suggested it might have happened. If Derps ends up being scum it narrows down potential starting scumbuddies to a few people.
Vulgard: Townlean. I like their analysis so far, although their progression on Kyo feels a little weird (like it’s bouncing around with no clear reason why). I’m going to try to keep an eye on their progression on their other reads, since that’s the biggest thing I felt was off.
Magnus: AAAA PLEASE STOP IT WITH THE RANDOMLY OPENCLAIMING AFTER ALMOST NO PRESSURE, I GET THAT IT WORKS IN TOL BUT THIS IS NOT TOL
Ahem. Townlean, this is Magnus’s town meta in my opinion. He gets mislynched on one of the first possible days most games for this sort of thing and I’d like not that this time around.
Marshal: Slight townlean. Some of his early posts looked like scum trying to appear solvey without actually doing anything, but his Iso’s are pretty well thought out. I’m looking forward to seeing the other half of his Iso’s.
Alice: Is Alice, so take this with a grain of salt, but she’s a slight townlean for me right now. Her reads seem generally well-thought-out and she’s not just using consensus to scumread people, when she could probably get away with doing so at this point. if she’s still alive D3 she’s probably not BD at that point, though.
PKR: Very slight townlean. Has a few controversial reads (Jake as town) that I think are notable, especially in the context of the rest of his Iso. When I initially glanced through it I thought he was mostly sticking to “safe” reads but a full read shows that he’s not.
H_Hja: Slight townlean. I don’t actually think the deathtunnel on Dat comes from scum here; most scum don’t like to be nearly so aggressive in pushing someone they know will flip villager, so unless H_Hja has a really strong read on Dat as being opposite-cult I think Hja is town. (it could in theory be a bus but that sort of us seems really weird this early.)
Null, in no particular order
Soul: Nullread for now. Has posted a couple of times but hasn’t really had much content; it’s the sort of thing I generally see as soft inactivity this early, where they’ve technically been active but you can’t get anything from it. I’d like to see some actual content tomorrow.
Jake: Null read, very little content thus far. I don’t think the supposed scumslip was actually a slip, I think it was badly phrased math.
Italy: Very null, has posted 3 times since start of game.
Frostwolf: Null, nothing since start of game.
Jgoes: Nullread. I’m not really getting much content from their posts; I’d like to see more from them.
Centuries: Null read, has posted one analytical post but otherwise basically nothing.
Scumreads
Kai: For someone with one of the highest post counts in the game, there sure are a lot of meme posts. Most of his content has been oriented towards pushing Ozz for claiming scum, which I can’t really hold against him, since I also scumread Ozz for that; if Ozz ends up flipping BD on a Kai-led lynch, I’ll be more sus of Kai as pushing for a mislynch. I think it’s very plausible here that he’s scum tunnelling someone he sees as a member of the other scumteam for towncred. Still, I’m pretty uncertain of this one; this is my lightest scumread.
Sulit: Sliiight scumlean. Sulit’s posts feel kind of information-instead-of-analysis-y to me, they do make a couple attempts at reads but most of their contributive posts are basically statements of facts (e.g. ‘both alignments can be cautious’ without commenting on their impression of the instance of caution under discussion).
Dat: I really hate scumreading him here, it’s very much a meta read and I’d be townreading his contributions from most people, but this is more Datbird’s scum meta (taking things seriously and gamesolving) than his town meta (lots of memeing). This is why I spent so long consistently getting Dat reads wrong; when I was watching NFoL 4 happen, I got a correct read on him by reading him like he was anyone else, then deliberately flipping it.
Ozzkozz: Literally claimed scum. Claimed scum several times. You all are welcome to townread him because “why would scum claim scum” but I’m not going to let him get away that easily – you can ask just as easily why BD would randomly claim scum, when it’s so obviously not pro-BD. Scum claim scum because you all let them get away with it on WifoM grounds but they don’t actually hold up when you look at him. His response to accusations was also not great. He also threatened to convert me, so I might be biased.
Complicated exceptions
Kyo: D1 Prince claim. Rather than attempting to explain all the reasons why that was a bad idea, I’m just going to say that Kyo ought to be self-resolving. Presumably his jail target of choice tonight can proceed to confirm him, or else he’ll be dead tomorrow morning.
Tele: So I just saw the whole TMI blowup, I don’t think identifying someone as LHF necessarily demonstrates TMI, though I don’t think her call was warranted. Her progression on Sulit is decent, but I’ll note that we’ve seen her play scum before, and she successfully fooled most of the NFoL. Her explanation of PoE is really weird – you shouldn’t cross someone out of PoE just for being inactive, that doesn’t make sense. She claims easily confirmable, so given how much pushing on her has occurred I’d like to see some confirmation from her tomorrow (unless she’s Priest, in which case obviously it’ll have to wait a couple nights – now that I think about it, a Priest claim could be a decent way to get time, since there almost certainly won’t be corpses for a while unless there’s an Acolyte with the relevant alts).
If Tele flips scum, she likely has a scummate in the inactives, and this is subtle deflection.
On a side note I just finished ISOing you and you honestly look good independently, just bad by association I think.
Time to read your Aretewall.
(My and Tele’s interactions are always going to be slightly different from our interactions with other people because we’re friends, but it’s not like you have any reason to trust me on that point and you probably shouldn’t be considering that sort of thing anyway.)
I genuinely like Arete’s reads
The perspective feels very different from mine but I think the logic is sound.
I disagree with several but I don’t think it warrants a debate
Especially since my reads are probably really bad. It’s my first Mafia game in a long time and I can’t metaread 80% of the people here like Arete is doing it for some people
@KyoDaz Assuming you’re Prince, I think you should jail Ozz tonight, and personally I think you should announce who you’re jailing if they’re anyone who’s getting scumread so that offensives/yolo TKs know not to waste their time.
(I don’t actually think TKs should be doing their thing quite yet, but.)
Because that’s exactly what happened.
I thought Kyo was scum but didn’t know why aside from ‘scummy entrance.’ So I tried pushing for a bit and then flipped my read, hence stopping the push.
Kind of agreeing with this. I don’t think any of Tele’s scumreads have a significant chance of flipping Cult here so we’re probably seeing their team-mate in Italy/Frost/Soul if they are a Cultist.
Speaking of inactives since my reads are changing I’m anticipating ~2 scum among the low posters