[SFoL] 52 Clash Of Cults - The Blue Dragon are Victorious!

Forum Matches Completed
#10373

I still think Soul is more likely to flip scum than Ozz.
The problem is that I see 1-2 scum with a small chance for 3 in Ozz/Hja/Arete/Soul. I think Soul and Arete are equally likely to flip scum but they’re not going to both flip scum.
Ozz might flip scum but I think he’s more likely to flip BD.
If Hja flips scum she’s probably a convert.
So basically lynching Soul should clear Arete because I don’t think it makes sense for Corax to bus at this stage of the game (if Soul flips scum). Arete is very likely to be scum if Soul flips BD.
Lynching Ozz… if he’s BD his checks were surely real but we have no way to prove if Corax had a Ritualist or not, so basically his lynch doesn’t tell us a lot if he’s BD.
If he’s Cult, his lynch… still doesn’t tell us a lot. He was considered suspicious by many early on, and throughout the game. There is no way he is being bussed right now, so I guess the people pushing him would be cleared as BD, but… the same applies to Soul, really. I feel like this is another Jgo situation where people are mistaken and Ozz is just BD.

I’m considering possibilities. If Luxy is so certain Ozz is scum I want to bring some stuff up and see what people think. If my read completely flipped I would be voting Ozz instead of Soul right now.

#10374

You see I would agree if he had just had a bad day today, but his scummy plays on day 2 and day 3, which included some weird tension between us that I thought came from nowhere, make me think he is starting cult rather than Soul, who has confirmed night actions.

#10375
Accused Voters Votes
Soulshade Ozzkozz, Jgoesgaming, Teleology, Vulgard 4/7
Ozzkozz Soulshade, Kai_5, Luxy, Magnus 4/7
H_Hja Arete 1/7
1 Like
#10376

Also if Ozz is scum he could’ve easily been bussed waaay earlier considering he’s consistently been having greenchecks. They would be immediately called into question once he flipped red, which would open the path for easy mislynches.

He’s not being bussed though. In fact I don’t think there was ever an attempt. Kai came the closest to doing so on D2 but they couldn’t be scum together at that point.

Since I think this would be a very good play for Corax, the fact it’s not been attempted also makes me think Ozz is BD. He’s been consistently scummy and nobody was defending him until I did this today (if I’m wrong, please point it out to me). He could’ve been lynched or nightkilled at any point and yet nobody seemed to care.

Feels like Corax thinks keeping him around is beneficial, but he’s not Cult. Maybe Ozz has a greencheck on a Cult member? I don’t know.

Basically I still think Ozz is BD, I just can’t articulate it very well.

#10377

Wagons are TvS or SvS here

1 Like
#10378

That’s fair

I am thinking me and Arete can both be Bd (I still think arete can be scum although) I directly thought Cult where/are pushing me generally based on me being a LHF drunk, at least most people consider me LHF or scum at this point.

I somewhat disagree with this because I think Arete could be a drunk still, This understandably makes me think you want to push a debber, yes this is flawed and you should push me if you feel like I am scum just from my point of view it feels like you want to get a debber out as debbers would be the prime late game targets to get out.

Yes and no it would at least make Ozz’s checks a lot more valid at this point. That’s nowhere near the main reasoning of me wanting to push ozz I generally think ozz is scum.

Just because someone is considered suspicious early on doesn’t really clear them just because their are similar situations where we think someone else is suspicious early on.

Comparing situations works but it isn’t always the greatest factor.

[SFoL] SFoL 53: Looming Threat - Completed
#10379

Why would cult nightkill a scummy player?

Corax cult has not been making the most rational decisions this game, and just because you expect or don’t expect someone to do something is not a reason to clear them as we saw with Tele/Alice.

#10380

Considering Corax is supposed to be a team I feel like nobody has been playing like a team with Ozz. The only person who has any strong association with him (Kai) couldn’t possibly be scum with him D2.

I will probably need to look into it more deeply but I think there would at least be something.

Though to be fair, the Mithras Cult seemed to generally avoid each other throughout the game, so… maybe Corax is doing the same thing?

#10381

I generally feel like cult would try to interact with each other normally.

Generally speaking strange interactions should be considered, like false distancing ect.

#10382

Which I really don’t get considering who the members were, but I digress.

Do we think Corax is doing the same thing?

#10383

Newbie scum move is to completely ignore scummates. I assume Ozz is new right?

1 Like
#10384

Yes from my perspective but it could be either way

#10385

Don’t think so?

#10386

If we’re going by this logic…

Ozz/Magnus/Italy/Hja convert?

:thinking:

new PoE?
I’m not sure if I’m comfortable with this. Admittedly I’m not very good at reading into scum strategies.

That said the N1 Corax kills were on people who scumread Ozz. :thinking:

1 Like
#10387

Ozz having greenchecks on almost his entire team would be bold as heck though.

#10388

Alternatively it could be Ozz/Hja and they failed their convert last night?

Otherwise, Ozz’s certainty of Italy’s alignment suggests that they either know they are town, or converted them.

#10389

The thing is.
If my new potential PoE is right then Ozz has been blatantly clearing his scummates throughout the game.
I kinda want to lynch Ozz now just to see if that could be right.

1 Like
#10390

It’s only 2-3 cult honestly If the waz theory is correct

#10391

I don’t think that’s the case I do think one of his checks might be cult but I don’t think anyone would be that bold honestly.

#10392

He could even ‘green check’ and then convert them