cough cough sfol60
By not attacking anyone, Arete is preventing the game from literally ending right here.
Even then Arete is stuck for options. If Arete gets a townie lynched, they probably loses the next night after Katze kills someone the following night
They need to openwolf and try to get katze lynched, then kill gorta and win the game with Seth.
Keep in mind that NK has a f4 wincon. If there are 4 or fewer players alive, they win by default. With 6 living players going into the night, Arete attacking someone is an immediate risk, because Areteās kill + katzeās kill puts the number of living players at 4 (if they attack different people and if both kills succeed). Itās not a risk they should ever take.
Arete canāt win, unless they get katze lynched tomorrow. I think that Cult has no reason not to cooperate with this, because keeping katze alive means that they lose as well. So katze definitely gets lynched tomorrow and the game is in final 4.
From thereā¦ I think it depends on night actions?
Whoās getting nightkilled by katze right now? The target of katzeās nightkill changes a lot.
They actually donāt. Everyone in the game, except Seth, needs katze dead to win. They can keep pretending they are town and achieve the same outcome.
/shrug
Youāre probably right that itās townās best move though since NK is stronger than Assassin.
The benefit of not openwolfing here is that Nappy might townread Arete and guard them instead of their nightkill target.
With GT and a properly guarded nightkill, it doesnāt. In a f5 situation, we have 2 town vs NK vs 1 Unseen vs openwolfer Seth. If everybody piles on katze, and the next nightkill is saved by Nappyās guard, King can GT the Unseen and get them lynched. Kingās vote + remaining townieās vote > Sethās vote.
The only reason Cult still has a chance is because Unseen have only managed to convert once.
The thing is, it requires King to GT exactly the Assassin and no one else. GTing Seth puts the game in final 3 and Arete WIFOMs the kill between Nappy/the other Cult member. GTing the townie loses the game for Cult instantly, because the townie will be hammered by Seth + Arete.
Soā¦ basically, if town steps up here, if katze gets lynched as they should be, and if Arete is correctly identified as the convert (which seems unlikely, given the fact Nappy thinks he SFed Arete and it went through), this is still winnable. Clutch, but winnable. Nappy also needs to guard correctly or he wonāt have the additional vote he needs.
Lots of prerequisites, which is why I donāt think itās likely, but itās not impossible.
Gorta is probably going to think Arete is lock town after he saves him from NK night kill. Which means heāll probably transfer the death to TBE or Napoleon.
Weāll see. The game being in final 6 is actually easier for Cult here. They have one more vote to use.
Also, I think gorta is smart enough to transfer the death to Seth, since Seth is literally openwolfing.
Itās possible we may wake up to Katze changing their night kill the Napoleon as he is saving his guard.