I understand why, a converted Alice (even just her voice) is dangerous late game.
Yeah Iām still thinking Arete might be Scum here but we still have time.
Especially if we lynch the NK today. (Assuming Arete isnāt NK)
Is it bad that I think the MM should be the higher priority? I think we can shut down their convert power
I still have a few cards in my pocket but I donāt know if they will end up helping or destroying us, Iāll probably reveal them.
11 players alive
most likely scenario 7 v 2 v 1 [v 1]
we lynch NK and fail to stop Unseen from Unseening:
Unseen converts
Unseen kills someone
-> tomorrow is 5 v 3 [v 1]
which is Not Great
we lynch Mastermind
Unseen kills someone
NK kills someone
-> tomorrow is 5 v 1 v 1 [v 1]
we lynch convert -> Assassin
Unseen converts (but canāt kill)
NK kills someone
-> tomorrow is 5 v 2 v 1 [v 1]
we mislynch
Unseen converts + kills someone
NK kills someone
-> tomorrow is 4 v 3 v 1 [v 1]
all of this is assuming that there arenāt extra kills (bleed, 2for1, weird NK stuff) and that weāre not particularly on top of our mechanical play (e.g. by jailexeing or vigging a scum, or occupying the Assassin, or whatever)
it also assumes that Nappy is GK
the main thing Iām taking away from this is that we would really like to lynch the Mastermind, and really canāt afford to mislynch, both of which we already knew
also if we mislynch itās +EV (for the NK not for us) for the NK to go for scummy people (because at that point weāre hitting the point where Unseen getting majority is a threat to them)
I really think that we are under the assumption that CRichard asked his scumpartner to do the āit was all an RTā thing.
I think Italy and Cloned are less likely MM, I know that I am not the MM (I canāt do much to prove it though), Jane is silent, Arete is likely starting town and not converted, Seth canāt be the MM, and Intensify wouldnāt want to get jailed if they were the Mastermind
Katze could be the MM I guess and TBE seems towny, but I donāt know how to read that slot
