SFoL 64 - Anonymous FoL - Day 6 - The Possessor, Inquisitor, and Fool are victorious!

Mary_Savill · September 21, 2020, 10:26pm

Bounty however does not expire.

Thomas_The_Second · September 21, 2020, 10:26pm

Jane gossiped n1 and while I WoW’d both n1 and n2. I only have flirt while Jane can still Bounty tonight.

Mary_Savill · September 21, 2020, 10:27pm

King Vote Count

Vote target	Voted by	Votes
Jane_Drayton	Ivo_Wake, Mary_Savill, Edmond_Bailey, Gilbert_Lovell, Alice_Alard, Sarah Lacey, Isabel_Savage	14 (RB)
Thomas_The_Second	Thomas_The_Second	2 (RB)
Not Voting	Peter_Carew, Geoffrey_Bailey, Andy_Bernard, Jane_Drayton, Emma_Maison	5

Mary_Savill · September 21, 2020, 10:27pm

And as I said, flirt is extremely powerful. I caught NK with that.

Thomas_The_Second · September 21, 2020, 10:29pm

What what else is to find out with flirt? Convert can be anything so it’s basically just a CL hunt, and even then that can net a lot of false positives. Would rather we get a second potential lynch tomorrow.

Isabel_Savage · September 21, 2020, 10:33pm

Problem is the CL would probably play it safe and claim an investigative as now you’re an outed Princess.

Mary_Savill · September 21, 2020, 10:34pm

The issue is, I don’t trust you…like, at all either.

Thomas_The_Second · September 21, 2020, 10:39pm

Aside from my posts…

I was bled yesterday despite being consensus TR’d, and Andy is the NK thus I cannot be the NK.

I should pretty much be 100% clear here unless Andy flips Demon.

Thomas_The_Second · September 21, 2020, 10:41pm

Even if you don’t buy this argument if I were a Cultist I’d be pretty much gambling on the other Cult solo’ing it as CL if I became King.

Geoffrey_Bailey · September 21, 2020, 10:54pm

I am semi fine with Jane being king. If they prove to be evil we could always just poison them

Andy_Bernard · September 21, 2020, 11:35pm

Aight.
I’m back. Nothing too much I wanted to say except for one thing. I guess I’ll King Jane here since that’s what everyone seems to be agreeing to King.
Now, let’s talk about that “one thing”.

This one and all other posts about me being K/O alike.

This is either scum trying to get me killed or an absouletely horrendous reaction test, so…

@Mary_Savill

I will give you one chance to say right now that this was actually a reaction test or else I’ll go deep into why this post is complete BS and how most of the logic doesn’t match up at all.
Oh yeh, by saying that this isn’t an RT, I’m gonna tunnel you, whether you are town or not cause this is seriously really dumb if this comes from town.

Now, with that out of the way, I’ll wait and go do something in the meantime.

Jane_Drayton · September 21, 2020, 11:40pm

Uh, why would scum try to get you killed when they will presumedly get outed next by themselves?

Alice_Alard · September 21, 2020, 11:45pm

Thread feels kinda dead and I’m not a fan.

I, personally, am much more comfortable kinging Thomas over Jane, though we only have 5 hours to make this decision, and Prince is MIA.
People, for the most part, jumped on the idea of kinging Jane, or just accepted that that’s what was happening (perhaps since nobody wants to question @Ivo_Wake), but when it comes to Thomas, everyone feels silent except Mary.
It felt this way with Thomas’ push on Gilbert as well.
It’s a general vibe of people trying to avoid interacting with Thomas lmao - and people who do suspect Thomas do it for silly shit like a meme NE claim, “rolefishing,” or… paranoia?
They feel like Schrödinger’s Villager or some shit

12 hours, btw.

I don’t want us split on who we vote for King, so I am staying on Jane until I hear from Prince.
I’d rather us king Jane than Ivo, but I’d rather king Thomas over Jane.

Side note: Can we stop having these damn periods of time where we can’t vote people and make wagons. Shit is annoying

Isabel_Savage · September 21, 2020, 11:46pm

That Grand Trial was a facepalm moment.
We could have yeeted a scum D2, but noooooo we lost our chance.

Isabel_Savage · September 21, 2020, 11:55pm

You can always try to revive the thread by starting discussion.
Complaining about it won’t make the thread alive again.

Isabel_Savage · September 21, 2020, 11:56pm

Oh and I noticed that Helen flipped cult.
Imagine my surprise finding out they were evil.

Alice_Alard · September 21, 2020, 11:58pm

I’m typing things up right now.
I also posted that with the intent to start discussion too.

That wasn’t me complaining about it as much as it was me commenting on the threadstate.
Whenever I get a general vibe, I like to share it.
I’m now working on fixing it.

Isabel who are you confident is BD currently?

Isabel_Savage · September 22, 2020, 12:00am

You, Jane, Ivo for obvious reasons and everyone else who voted up Helen before the Grand Trial.

Peter_Carew · September 22, 2020, 12:05am

I bountied Jane last night, but apparently we’re kinging them?

Alice_Alard · September 22, 2020, 12:11am

Jane

Alice_Alard:

Alright
Jane time Jane time
Time to figure out what’s going on with this wagon.

I remember really liking Jane’s opening posts. I think it was because they came out in a flurry of reads and solvey posts right out of the gate and they didn’t feel very scared to jump into the thick of it. I thought this felt townie.
Perhaps I didn’t read the content with as much effort as I should have.

Just read back through Jane’s ISO, and I’m going to see if I agree with the reasons for this wagon.

Peter_Carew:

Jane opens with a lot of observations and a couple of weak reads. The Andy read is reasonably worldbuildy especially at this point of the game. It’s interesting he pulls out Isabel’s opener but not the other similar openers that happened about good town play, which could indicate a reluctance to make too many townreads. Though this post can come from either side at this point of the game, even if it feels like Jane felt a need to start the game off strong with his opener.

Jane has a lack of conclusive wording in their opening post. They also came into the thread over a day after the game started, so I’d hope they would have some stronger reads?
This isn’t AI, just something that sparked my interest.
Ignoring this and not counting it as reasoning as Peter admits it can come from either alignment.

(Had to go for 45m after typing this part)

Peter_Carew:

Such a large percentage of Jane’s ISO D1 and D2 is literally just sideline talking, asking bad questions and ‘encouraging’ others to post instead of doing stuff themselves. Given that low level wolves usually like to try and stay UTR since they don’t want to draw attention to themselves/make many reads, I would say this is a pretty good indication that they may be a wolf.

I can agree with this. Doesn’t help that they weren’t around for a lot of d1, so there isn’t a ton to go off of.

Peter_Carew:

His readlist is very meh, I don’t know why he voted Ivo Day 2 if he was his top townread day 1. Also after just shading gilbert, he’s put my slot lower despite my slot not having posted anything? I don’t really see too much progression on Isabel or Helen either.

Peter_Carew:

This post just screams a wolf jumping onto a mislynch wagon, especially as Jane apparently top townread Ivo during the previous day and this was his opener day 2. I’m not too sure why the Ivo wagon formed in the first place though so there may be context I’m missing.

This is the main part of your post that I agree with tbh. And I think it also happens to be one of the worst parts of their ISO. Their progression and vote on Ivo.

Peter_Carew:

No progression here besides he thought his EoD1 posts were lacklustre.

Peter_Carew:

Gross, don’t know why you would open like that if this was the case, this seems like a lie.

Along with no progression, voting the person who the Prince claimed to jail doesn’t really make a lot of sense? It’s mechanically unlikely that they are a starting wolf, though not impossible. This vote just felt super sudden, really.
On my first re-read this felt like “Oh shit Ivo claimed Prince. Who was Prince voting? Geoffrey? Okay I’ll vote Geoffrey and act like it was my original intention.”
Then I read it a second time and looked for reasoning for their vote:

Jane_Drayton:

I will /vote Ivo_Wake over here first , as he could potentially be a deep wolf or power wolf, and well, I didn’t really know if I really misread him.

Looks like they did intend to vote Geoffrey. This probably isn’t a lie.
But I still don’t understand why they voted Ivo, especially right after saying that they don’t know why there was a sudden flash wagon for them.

The deepwolf/powerwolf reasoning is incredibly faulty, and often used by wolves to shade towncore. They were townreading Ivo before this, and I don’t see why a sudden wagon on them would make them immediately scared of a deepwolf. Never vote someone just because of paranoia. Figure out why you are paranoid. Can’t use the excuse that we keep flipping villagers, since we haven’t flipped anyone yet lol.

Peter_Carew:

This post just pinged me so hard, it was like he was asking me to find more people to scumread so that the PoE could be larger.

This post didn’t ping me as hard as it pinged you tbh. I see where you’re coming from but it feels kinda reachy.

I find myself agreeing with you that Jane has a lot of wolf potential, and I understand why this wagon formed now. Pretty fine voting there, but three things are giving me pause:
A. I feel like you went into this post with a conclusion in mind, and this was a scum-case, rather than a genuine attempt to read Jane? It could be conf-bias from the “heeby jeebies,” I suppose.
B. You’re too focused on a single player. You aren’t really looking outside of Jane recently. Jane is the only player you made a wallpost on, and you haven’t done the same with the rest of your PoE. This feels kinda bad faith.
C. The Gilbert wagon never picked up any traction. Not when Thomas first voted them (which was before I voted Ivo), and not when I hopped on it with Thomas. A super basic threadread makes me feel like something is wrong here, but I’m having a hard time telling what? (I also have something extremely pre-flippy to say on this but I’ll leave it for allies probably lmao)

Alice_Alard:

Jane’s claim feels pure to me. I think they at least started this game as a Noble, and I’m not very fond of convert hunting this early, so I want to look elsewhere for our wagons tbh. This can be an invest check / target for offensives.

Their d1 was subpar but there isn’t a lot to work with since they came into the thread very late, but nothing pinged me as extremely wolfy. Sure their opener had a lack of conclusions and confidence but that can come from either alignment. Their d2, in my opinion, has been much worse, especially the vote on Ivo at the start, which seemed opportunistic and the reasoning was flawed. They have also been sidelining for a long time.

I already stated that a few things give me pause with voting Jane, including the fact that I think Peter is pushing in bad faith, and that Gilbert’s wagon never picked up any steam, but their claim made me second guess the vote even more.

I called them out for a direct contradiction and they continued to post and reply with the same mindset of “I fucked up,” rather than freezing on the spot, which is what I expected this player to do if they were a wolf - seeing as how they have been sidelining for a while and their d1 opener lacked strong reads, I didn’t take them as very confident, really. (Though this is a flawed mindset, since it’s my personal opinion of what this specific player would have done).
The claim is unnecessarily complicated and I think a wolf would have a more ironed-out fakeclaim, especially if they see a wagon forming quickly on them. They could very easily have claimed a gossip on Sarah rather than Thomas, and it wouldn’t have contradicted what they said earlier today.
Their tone feels genuine.

Here is everything I have written on Jane. I want to make it clear that I do not scumread Jane, I merely think Thomas is townier and a better King candidate, especially after their claim, and Jane has more wolf equity due to Helen spew, which is indeed biasing my perspective.

Thomas in my mind is just an obvious villager.

Why did you choose to bounty Jane?

Also, @Ivo_Wake, Allies#49