SFoL 64 - Anonymous FoL - Day 6 - The Possessor, Inquisitor, and Fool are victorious!

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

Like what’s wrong with it in your opinion

[Emma_Maison]

Vote :>

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

Earlier I said that I think Emma’s spew clears me of being partners with that slot, so it’s time for me to explain. Here are most of the posts aimed at me since d1. Some of these were from d1, but Emma continued to hard scum read me into d2 and beyond

@Emma_Maison

Interesting.
The ISO contains no attempts to analyze anyone.
The posts about Thomas, especially the seventh and eighth post, come across as outright lies. They are performative. Geoffrey does not appear to truly care about Thomas’ conduct within the thread. Their comments about the thread being inflated were also throwaway remarks, rather than anything with even a shred of passion.

This opening string of posts hits quite a few notes I would expect from a mafioso attempting to enter this messy thread.

@Emma_Maison

This post specifically is intriguing, because it implies that Geoffrey considers Thomas scummy… and yet, Geoffrey does not do anything with said suspicion. Geoffrey only says that Thomas is doing suspicious things, but does not question him, follow up on it, or even ask other people about it. What good does it do for him to tell the target of his suspicion that he is suspicious? Absolutely nothing.

Again. This just looks performative. Geoffrey wants to look like he is town-motivated by explaining to Thomas how to play the game. Geoffrey wants to look like he is solving people’s alignments by expressing mild suspicion on Thomas. But neither of those come across as genuine.

Of course, he may improve as the game goes on, but the way he started is enough for me to put him below null.

Also, if you wished to be somewhat creative, you could read “nobody will listen to you, Thomas” as a hidden assumption that Thomas is town, despite the expressed suspicion (“it’s more likely to come from scum clogging up the thread”). Which would be an example of TMI. “You are town, but you are doing scummy things.”

I would rather not call this post TMI, but one could easily do that and I would not say it’s unsubstantiated.

Overall, Geoffrey is my first scumread. There isn’t much to use, but it’s day 1. If you don’t do anything on day 1, you are not playing the game the right way. We don’t have to be correct, we just have to do things and the mafia will be forced to adapt.

@Emma_Maison

Excellent crosspost.
Well then, throw me more bones. I’m waiting.
Or rather, you can leave them by the door. I’ll take a look when I’m not inconvenienced.

@Emma_Maison

I would love to.
So far, you haven’t really made any alignment reads even while catching up.

@Emma_Maison

I don’t really count this take. It is a very surface-level take. Also, the post you quoted is openly constructed, as in, the person writing it called it a “usual starter king post.” And later, Alan said “this is my opening.” Clearly, he thought about what he was writing before posting it, which means the post could come from either alignment.

The post’s content itself is also mostly a recap of what has transpired. Again, either alignment could do this.

@Emma_Maison

/vote Geoffrey_Bailey I wanted to do this at the start of the day, but I came here late. I have my own reasons, but I would love to hear yours, since I didn’t consider you particularly towny at the end of yesterday.

@Emma_Maison

Honestly, the towniest thing I have seen from Ivo so far is that he entered the thread today with the same idea as me, that being “push Geoffrey.”

I have tangible reasons for being on that train. Geoffrey’s posts yesterday were utterly unimpressive, but he has not crossed the line of “this is a mafioso” until he wrote the posts aimed at Edmond.

@Emma_Maison

These posts look innocent. However, I believe the motive was far from innocent. These posts look like they are intended to pocket Edmond.

Geoffrey randomly attempts to initiate interaction with Edmond and reassure him at the very end of the day. The problem with that? It feels premeditated. A townie does not have much of a reason to add these random comments in response to Edmond’s posts. A townie would be more likely to passively acknowledge them or just use the like button.

However, Geoffrey went out of his way to write two posts directed at Edmond, and all they say is that Geoffrey supposedly shares a similar sentiment. It looks like Geoffrey is trying to improve his position and pocket Edmond. Much like many of his other posts this game, it does not come across as honest.

Combined with the prior suspicion I had on him, I believe this makes good grounds for a lynch.

Quoting the full interaction for context.

@Emma_Maison

Edmond’s posts are much more passionate, which further increases my level of trust in his town alignment. They do not come across as dishonest. Meanwhile, Geoffrey is suddenly very friendly toward Edmond, and specifically toward Edmond. I don’t quite see why a townie would do this. To me, the comments from Geoffrey very clearly indicate an attempt to pocket Edmond, and not genuine reassurance. Edmond didn’t need reassuring in the first place. Geoffrey just wanted to make himself look better, and improve Edmond’s opinion of him.

If you can explain yourself, Geoffrey, that would be excellent. My interpretation is that you are mafia.

Don’t aim your explanation at me, though, because appealing to me directly won’t work

@Emma_Maison

I believe the strength of Geoffrey’s conclusion does not match the strength of Geoffrey’s arguments in this post. I’m not sure what he is seeing there that is so “town-motivated,” and “town-motivated” is not something that guarantees someone is town, either. I read Mary’s entire ISO myself, and I reached the conclusion that she is above the null line. Geoffrey, however, considers her almost lock town, and reading his explanation for the “why” did not make me consider the read justified. Make of that what you will.

@Emma_Maison

This statement is especially questionable to me. Why do these posts written by Mary “ooze towniness” in your eyes? I read them myself, more than once, and I don’t think a competent mafioso would be incapable of writing them.

It’s possible Geoffrey is simply unable to fabricate a convincing explanation for his read, because it is not a genuine read.

My vote stays, for the time being.

@Emma_Maison

It’s a little strange that you are doing this “respond to someone when it’s not necessary at all” thing again, but this time, you’re targeting me. That said, the fact you did this and targeted the person who accused you of it… you’re bolder than I expected.

@Emma_Maison

Why not just vote there and force Helen to do something?

I’d do it myself, but I’m still catching up.

@Emma_Maison

Hmmm.

The fact Gilbert’s treatment of Thomas bears some similarities to Geoffrey’s treatment of Thomas is setting off my mafia radar.

@Emma_Maison

That was my initial thought as well. I’m not sure what this assessment is supposed to be otherwise. The thing that gives me pause is that it seems blatant. Geoffrey could just give his partner an ultimatum in mafia chat. “Improve posting or get bussed.” …Without saying it in the thread.

But he did that in the main thread, and I can’t just ignore it. If Gilbert dies today and flips mafia, absolutely occupy Geoffrey / investigate him / assess him tomorrow. Doing all three would be wasted resources, so I’m presenting them as separate options.

@Emma_Maison

…You pinged someone who is not the King.

@Emma_Maison

The interesting thing about Geoffrey’s treatment of Helen is that while he does seem to be scumreading Helen, he gives her many, many, many chances throughout the day, and warnings as well. The number of conditional statements (I will vote you if X) is very high. I’m not certain if it’s consistent between all of Geoffrey’s reads, but this consistency within the Helen read by itself is really something of note. At least toward the end, he stopped giving Helen ways to “prove herself” and simply insisted on lynching her, which is a better look.

Conclusion: Based on the number of chances Geoffrey has given Helen, as well as some questionable statements, and especially the LAMIST post he wrote today, Geoffrey could be considered Helen’s busser. While he was scumreading Helen fairly consistently, he still gave her multiple outs and threw her more than one rope. She did not grab any of those ropes, but the attempts are still there in the thread, for everyone to see. The one saving grace is that at some point, he stopped doing that and went all in; but that is something to be expected from a slightly hesitant busser as well. At some point, you have to commit.

Keep in mind that I am completely disregarding mechanics as I am making this read.

@Emma_Maison

Could be Helen’s partners:

Andy
Peter
Sarah
Geoffrey
Jane (Caveat: I considered Helen’s end of the interactions good for Jane, but Jane’s end of the interactions looks bad for Jane, which is a little strange.)

@Emma_Maison

I could see this being genuine from you, I suppose.
Do you think the current PoE contains 2-3 times more town than mafia?

@Emma_Maison

I don’t know if it’s just me, but your townread on Sarah looks meaningless.
“Socially town to me, because scum would say that they would read everything overnight.”
This is a false assumption and does not say anything meaningful about Sarah.

Like Emma dedicates walls of shade to me and pushes me far after d1. I mostly ignored them because I thought Emma was town and their tone stayed the same, but in light of the recent knowledge I think it semi clears me (?). I don’t think these are the kinds of interactions a wolf has with their partner

@Emma_Maison

I could see this being genuine from you, I suppose.
Do you think the current PoE contains 2-3 times more town than mafia?

and even when they lighten up on me they have these weird double edged statements aimed at me

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

Now I need a break from the thread

[Emma_Maison]

I hardclaim the bleed on Alice.

[Emma_Maison]

/vote Emma_Maison

This is mafia.

[Emma_Maison]

Impending IC reveal.

[Mary_Savill]

@Sarah_Lacey

Emma is conf convert
Edmond and Ivo are conf not non-BD killing, and I highly doubt Edmond was converted

so within {Mary, Thomas, Alice, Geoff} we have 3 if not 4 evils

‘Emma is convert’
'We might have 4 evils in Mary, Thomas, Alice and Geoff.

@Sarah_Lacey

I think we kill mary here, for sure
CL if I ever saw one

We’ve established who the originally CL was, so you’re assuming I’m 2nd Starting Scum?

@Ivo_Wake You do not jail me tonight and I’m sure you know why.

[Mary_Savill]

@Mary_Savill

@Ivo_Wake You do not jail me tonight and I’m sure you know why.

I know how much you distrust me but jailing me more than likely loses us the game.

[Mary_Savill]

I thought I should explain this real quick.

I can prevent a convert in case they didn’t get one last night. That’s why I can’t be jailed, if I am jailed they basically get a convert guaranteed at this point. Not to mention I’m also able to heal just in case we need to heal a player, there’s far too much that I can do to try and help us.

[Mary_Savill]

I’m also unsure how to feel about no one talking about Edmond getting King when it really should’ve been a 6v5. Which sorta tells me scum don’t have a convert, meaning the votes probably were 4v6.

[Ivo_Wake]

From deep wolf to open wolf how the mighty has fallen

[Ivo_Wake]

Who do you think is a good idea from your pov to jail because I’ll be honest your my prejail rn

[Alice_Alard]

@Geoffrey_Bailey

I don’t think these are the kinds of interactions a wolf has with their partner

Okay so here’s the deal
Emma went for the hardbus on Helen. It’s clear that they aren’t new to the world of distancing. You could absolutely be starting scum

Along with this, you can still be last night’s convert. d2/d3 spew doesn’t clear you from that - and you were “mech-confirmed BD” in everyone’s eyes, so let’s be real - you were a prime conversion target if v

Also I simply skimmed this bc I have something else on my mind I wanted to share first, before I forget.
Will read your posts in detail soon.

---

I did some thinking last night
These thoughts are completely unrefined, and I realize there may be issues with them, since I’m exhausted rn
But I’m sharing anyways, because I think it’s important to discuss.

Why did Emma push for Sarah to be lynched today, over Mary/Thomas/Geoffrey?
I did the math earlier

@Alice_Alard

Without the missing nightkill we would probably be at 7 players alive, and that’s likely what Cult were playing for. That’s 2 or 3 Cultists.

Let’s assume it’s 2 just for the hell of it.

2v1v4

Why would you ever bus your teammate in this situation?

Your chances of winning become slimmer and your chances of being caught increase. You need NK or BD out today. They’re more likely looking to get rid of the former. NK is unpredictable and 7 players alive could become 4 very quickly depending on which NK randed, and some NKs win at 4p.

Now, let’s assume its 3 Cultists alive.

3v1v4

You’re nearly at parity. You just need NK out and a nightkill.
They likely think Sarah is NK.

Cult needed to set up a world in which they could get NK out today.
I’m not going to straight-up take Emma’s word for it that Sarah is NK, but this makes me want to do a deeper dive. I do think she is spewed as non-Cult.

---

With Emma being the bonk today, Cult can’t get rid of NK. Along with this, we have 8p alive rather than the 7p they probably expected. They can likely afford (and perhaps want) to let NK roam free another night and be a source of KP - then bonk them tomorrow, no?
In my mind, this makes me think Mary isn’t NK, though I could be thinking way too hard into this, as it’s also possible they’re pushing for the NK to be jailed so the KP can be reliable and we don’t go down to 4p because of a hidden Sorc or some shit.

---

Another thing that gives me pause is that everyone seems to be in agreement that Mary should be jailed (except for Mary herself). Level-1 threadread says that this is what Cult want.

---

I will also admit that some of this read is because of a selfish thought I had:

In the offchance Emma was a real Hunter (or other killer class) - Cult could have an Acolyte.
Which means I’m dead as fuck tonight.
Which means we’re kinda just fucked.
I don’t wanna be fucked.

@Queen_Alfa

Curse of Corax (Night) - If the target is bled tomorrow, they will die in 1 night instead of 2 nights. - 1 use

If Mary is real Alchemist, they can heal me tonight (and I personally would very much like to live).
If I die tonight with them out of jail, or if there’s too much KP, they’re just NK.

---

I think we jail Sarah.
We play ballsy or we lose.

I’m also going to go fuckin tryhard-mode because I’m now paranoid that I die tonight.

@Ivo_Wake @Edmond_Bailey
Read this please.

[katze]

boopcount

Vote target	Voted by	Votes
Emma_Maison	Emma_Maison	1/5
Not Voting	Geoffrey_Bailey, Mary_Savill, Sarah_Lacey, Thomas_The_Second, Alice_Alard, Ivo_Wake, Edmond_Bailey	7

[Ivo_Wake]

Hmm I’ll think about it

But I actually think you can be protected tonight without king or Mary

[Alice_Alard]

@Geoffrey_Bailey

Damnit, I can, it’s just not going to be fun

Who said FM was supposed to be fun? :^)

@Geoffrey_Bailey

I do like how Thomas started solving from the get go and dropped the bs claims

This is NAI.
Solving and dropping bs claims does not equal town. What about their solving did you like?

@Geoffrey_Bailey

Thomas also pushes their scum reads and withdraws when they are proven wrong. I don’t know how else to explain it

If this is about the Ivo wagon, literally everyone retracted that scumread once they claimed Prince.
This also does not make Thomas town.

@Geoffrey_Bailey

@Thomas_The_Second

Alice is obvious, Nicho seems to be a legit obs from how he handled the check and the progression on Andy, and Edmond’s frustration on my slot’s idiocy was fairly consisted throughout all of d1 that I don’t think it’s fake.

I also find them not being afraid to go against the consensus gives them more towny points

This quote was the consensus at the time.
Perhaps the only thing slightly off of consensus is the read on Edmond.

@Geoffrey_Bailey

They way they handle my slot is very towny as well. Like they question some of my more poorly worded posts and react accordingly to my answer.

I guess I’ll accept this.

---

@Geoffrey_Bailey

Tell me how wrong I am, but this is why I put Thomas as a townlean. I don’t see these posts ever coming from scum. They push their scum reads, question things, solve in their first 10 posts, and aren’t afraid to re-eval. Yell at me and tell me why I am wrong, but this is towny to me

Blah
You did the thing again
Why do you keep doing the thing.

---

Anyways, I’m unimpressed. This is IIoA, and the analysis you do provide is very surface-level, or just straight up wrong.
Doesn’t make you a wolf, but it doesn’t make me want to move you any closer to my towncore.
Do better.

---

Aside:
@Thomas_The_Second where are you, dude? I asked for your night results ages ago.
You have the obligation to make yourself look townie as well, if you’re town.

---

@Geoffrey_Bailey

Emma also throws tons of shit at them, which doesn’t really come from w/w theater

Expand on this?
Emma “threw a ton of shit” at Helen, so this is objectively false.
I personally don’t think Sarah is Cult (for other reasons), but I would still like to hear why you don’t think this has potential to be w/w

@Emma_Maison

Vote :>

no :>

@Ivo_Wake

Hmm I’ll think about it

But I actually think you can be protected tonight without king or Mary

If you’re thinking what I think you’re thinking -
Don’t.
Lmao

I wish FoL had whispers so we could stop trying to speak telepathically
except i dont bc whispers OP

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

@Alice_Alard

Okay so here’s the deal
Emma went for the hardbus on Helen. It’s clear that they aren’t new to the world of distancing. You could absolutely be starting scum

Along with this, you can still be last night’s convert. d2/d3 spew doesn’t clear you from that - and you were “mech-confirmed BD” in everyone’s eyes, so let’s be real - you were a prime conversion target if v

Also I simply skimmed this bc I have something else on my mind I wanted to share first, before I forget.
Will read your posts in detail soon.

@Alice_Alard

Emma “threw a ton of shit” at Helen, so this is objectively false.

In all fairness this point is terrible. Helen was a very likely bus target because they were frozen in the thread, and didn’t show signs of improving. The prince said they didn’t even reply in jail, so of course Emma bussed Helen. If you look at everyone else Emma pushed they flipped town, which further more makes that point shit.

@Alice_Alard

In my mind, this makes me think Mary isn’t NK, though I could be thinking way too hard into this, as it’s also possible they’re pushing for the NK to be jailed so the KP can be reliable and we don’t go down to 4p because of a hidden Sorc or some shit.

Then who is the NK and why? Do you think Mary is the real Alchemist who got their truth potion results incorrect?

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

@Alice_Alard

This is NAI.
Solving and dropping bs claims does not equal town. What about their solving did you like?

I am never this descriptive. You asked for my unrefined opinions and I like them solving because the quality of said work is good and wolves like Helen didn’t even try, so I think that solving can clear most players.

@Alice_Alard

If this is about the Ivo wagon, literally everyone retracted that scumread once they claimed Prince.
This also does not make Thomas town.

I guess that’s fair, but I can’t really explain why my reads are reads 9 times out of 10

@Alice_Alard

This quote was the consensus at the time.
Perhaps the only thing slightly off of consensus is the read on Edmond.

YES! That’s exactly what I meant, as Edmond was a null for so many at the time. Thomas TRing Edmond was going away from consensus reads.

@Alice_Alard

Blah
You did the thing again
Why do you keep doing the thing.

I know, I suck at wording my stuff, but I think I am fine with moving Thomas into my town reads.

@Alice_Alard

Anyways, I’m unimpressed. This is IIoA, and the analysis you do provide is very surface-level, or just straight up wrong.

It’s the kind of material I make at 5 AM with no sleep and I thought you wanted me to show the posts that made me TR Thomas

[Geoffrey_Bailey]

@Alice_Alard

If Mary is real Alchemist, they can heal me tonight (and I personally would very much like to live).
If I die tonight with them out of jail, or if there’s too much KP, they’re just NK.

Might I ask how confident you are in that assessment? If it’s high I can just heal you tonight. I am the alchemist and I just brewed a health potion yesterday, so if you think it’s a very high chance I will use it tonight.