actually…what happens if we don’t kill CL?
you bleed out, i probably die, last BD gets converted.
how in the world do we actually have a chance to win i don’t think it’s mechanically possible unless i’m missing something?
Assuming Mary isn’t NK:
We lynch one of Sarah/Thomas - we need exactly NK out
If Thomas didn’t lie about the bleed,
I transferred a death to Mary, and Mary dies tonight
Also you don’t die tonight bc I’m delaying you
I don’t even care to wifom it, it’s obvious
If Mary flips CL, I bleed out, you GT whoever is left (convert) and win? Idk - they might only have to reach parity im not sure tbh - we might lose in this scenario
If Mary flips Alch, we still up whoever is left, because they are CL - and I live because Mary healed me, which is poggers. Can’t convert me cuz lolSF
If Thomas did lie about the bleed
uhhh
fuck?
i dont know
We have like a 1% chance of winning
this is fun
im probably fucking up my math but
brain machine no work currently
read this and tell me if it adds up
@Edmond_Bailey
idk
i think we lose
we have a very very very small chance of winning but i think we’re kingmakers here
the urge to snapvote and take a shot in the dark is real
fuck
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yeah this adds up to me thank you for that
i think we’re just kingmakers though here tbh and again i’m sorry for putting us in this position
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I don’t hold it against you
I mean
I’m slightly frustrated
But I’ve been there.
I’ve done a lot worse
It’s just a game, shrug
i feel really defeated but we’ll pretend i dont
you have no idea how defeated i am and i can’t even be mad because i was the one that did it
is it bad i’m secretly hoping for someone to have DI-bypass attacked Prince so it wasn’t entirely my fault
Alright
Well
We’re going to do this, because I don’t have the brainpower to ISO-dive again rn
@Sarah_Lacey @Thomas_The_Second
Towncase yourselves.
Go full fuckin’ LAMIST, I do not care.
Convince me you aren’t NK.
…I still don’t know what LAMIST is so that’s that
but I mechanically cannot be NK.
I blocked Isabel, remember?
I want to know why you weren’t on Prince.
ahh…about that mechanical confirmation…
also it was assumed i’d be on Prince so don’t blame alice for that it was my fault
LAMIST stands for look at me i’m so townie though
…ok then?
alright point is broken
I’m still the bulter though
i’m not saying you’re not Butler, i’m just saying you aren’t confirmed as there is an NK (Reaper) that can occupy
Alice, i’d like to refer to Allies #81 here.
with these two flips how do you feel about that now?
Funnily enough, we went over this exact argument in allies last night.
There are more worlds in which you are NK than there are Butler
There is Icy Touch, Reap, Haemophilia, Possible Merc/Sellsword.
There’s also the possibility that the Neutral (emphasis on Neutral) lied about being occupied.
There was a missing nightkill on the night you killed King
You have mentioned NK and finding them based on mechanics more than anyone else in the game (which isn’t truly AI, but it sure raises an eyebrow)
Emma wanted you dead yesterday. They were going go push you if not for Edmond outting her. I’m not going to take Emma’s word for it, but this makes me feel like they could have had mech-info on you (attempted attack or convert?)
There are a shit ton of cards stacked against you.
I very much want to vote you but I don’t want to be rash. I could very well be wrong, and I want you to prove me wrong
Emma flipped Acolyte. There was a nonzero chance that Edmond would die to bleed in 1 night rather than 2. For this reason, I was on Edmond, and Edmond was supposed to be on Prince
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Oh I beat you to the punch
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for what this is worth, i do not believe Isabel lied about being occupied, we went over that in the Channel and they had no reason to lie to me there.
which leaves us two worlds: you’re either Butler or exactly Reaper
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I agree with ya
I don’t really think Isabel lied either, since they were insanely helpful with the CL thing
But I’m not ruling it out
i’d like to reference this here where i theorized in which NK we have. this is more important now than ever to figure out.
sarah, if the NK isn’t you, which NK do you think we have and who is it?
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actually
@Sarah_Lacey
@Mary_Savill
@Thomas_The_Second
@Alice_Alard
i want theories from all of you on which NK we have and who the most likely candidate is. the NK is what we need to focus on right now and i’m sure Cult agrees with me here.
additionally, CL if you get wagoned i recommend you claim, we don’t want another FoL30 situation where NK runs away with a win because groupscum didn’t out when pushed.
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wait
off for about an hour or so
but
I had a thought, which might actually work here
Claim: we have exactly 1 cult member alive (who is the N5 convert -> CL), Geoff was CL, and we have a possessor that altered Geoff’s flip.
Reasoning: if we had >1 cult here, they would have claimed and asked town to yeet NK with them already
unless Edmond and Alice are doing exactly that right now