[SFoL] SFoL 51: Hand of Byzantium III - (3/16) - Completed

Forum Matches Forum of Lies
#2301

Maybe there is something like arsonist?

#2302

I looked through. The most likely in terms of mechanically explaining lack of NK kills are Succubus, Occultist, and Werewolf.

#2303

https://media0.giphy.com/media/9FmsP1f9UmPOE/giphy.gif?cid=8fc3c8975d3c5f5965644f32730a557f&rid=giphy.gif

How I feel about Blue atm :slight_smile: Please post moar

1 Like
#2304

I was originally looking for a gif that might bring Alice to the thread but found that and it was amazing :slight_smile:

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#2305

You have me for about 9 more minutes before I bounce into VC for my DnD.

N1 convert, where do you think we should look first?

#2306

I am thinking either PKR or scum were -EV. Based on Maxwell’s post he reacted to me pushing him well and Lymphona is well Lymphona so I don’t think they were converted. So when it gets to -EV it’s like random chance.

#2307

There is a chance Possessed is just convert N1 but that’s super EV.

#2308

You’re going to have to explain to my dumb brain what EV is.

#2309

-EV* forgot the dash

#2310

EV is expected value

It’s more saying what’s really good or bad for your wincon

Sort of like betting rolling two six sided dice sum.

Betting seven is more likely to get success so +EV.

Betting two is the least likely, same with twelve

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#2311

I gotcha.

At least we have the benefit of knowing the two starting scum so we have an indicator of where they might want to pool their convert thoughts.

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#2312

Converting someone who would have to change tracks suddenly would be -EV unless you knew they could handle it.

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#2313

Hence my starting questions when day opened and who I picked for my chat. It was a sorting mechanism since I had read practically nothing by the time I had to pick and I am glad I did. We almost ended up without a night chat.

#2314

Who do you think N1 convert was Blue?

#2315

I don’t know, but I think I can discount Magnus from the list of people just judging from Arete’s reaching out to them in desperation before their lynch.

#2316

DatBird hasn’t been poked at yet, neither has Jake. It could be either of them? I would just remember that Jake was Fires at the time?

Poss is good as scum but I don’t think it’s them

That’s all I really have time for unfortunately, if anything extrapolates from that then let me know

#2317

Man thinking about it all the choices are -EV
Hit a lurker or hit someone not known for power wolfing. All the people I consider capable of power wolfing are in not convertible slots. Ewwww

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#2318

Will you come back after?

#2319

I’d need to make food but unless something comes up, I should be able to.

#2320

Cool because I gotta go too because showers are things.