SFoL62 - Regal Lions - Cult and Oneiromancer Victory!

Well, there wasn’t that much to backread today either.
First things first – I see that people are switching over to Blizer, but I still stand by my words that his execution doesn’t give us much of anything. If we suspect PKR to be the NK (and I’ll go over this more below), doesn’t it make more sense for PK to vig Blizer’s slot and get PKR out now? Since all NK’s but Zealot are DI.

And if we want to allow PKR to confirm himself instead, then we should be theorizing on how – I already said that I think redirecting vig somewhere isn’t ideal since not only the vig is delayed, but if PKR is NK he’ll survive and he can kill the supposed vig target on his own afterwards to ‘confirm’ the redirection. I think if anything, PKR should be redirecting Centuries if he isn’t going to be the lynch today.
Because even if Centuries is fake, he has to guess if the redirection happened or not – and if he says that it doesn’t and PKR is town, he just dies next. But this plan isn’t perfect in any capacity because it still takes some time, though as long as Executioner is alive it shouldn’t really be an issue.


That aside, I find it curious how no one seemed to read/reply to TBE’s case on PKR?
This post:

I’ll go over it in a separate post because it would make this wall even more huge than it already is, but that’s just something I noted.
Also iirc only a few people talked about Jane’s case on PKR as well.

These posts from TBE:

Actually look good to me – in a way that they are in line with his post about read/potential misclear analysis, which I liked a lot.
My main issue with him is claiming Executioner yesterday because I absolutely don’t agree with his thought process behind it – a few people already said it, but it almost felt like PR hunting. Aside from that, the only things that stood out to me were his RT’s which he quickly dropped (he did give a reason for dropping the second one though) and that interaction thing.
But the above ones still feel genuine? I think groupscum trying to build fake associations/spew wouldn’t say this:

Though I’m not familiar with TBE’s scum game (I think the only one he had was BOTF and I’m allergic to that setup) and everything can be faked in vacuum.


Next.
Gorta’s case on Unknown:

I don’t think anyone ever cleared them on this. That whole thing looks completely NAI to me to begin with – it could come both from scum trying to ask questions to look productive/towny, and from town that genuinely isn’t familiar with this site and its games.

This was discussed quite a bit before and yes, this was the main part that felt ‘off’ to me at the start of the game.

The thing about that nulllist though – do you think scum would ever write this? I think that if someone experienced was pretending to be new, they would instead give very few actual reads with weak reasoning. Something like “Chloe seems towny to me and Gorta is okay, though he looks like a type that doesn’t post much”.
That would obviously make them look better than posting a nulllist – no? It just seems excessive.

Jane spoke about this before, I think this could be interpreted as them suspecting Seth of trying to pocket them? Don’t remember if Unknown themselves confirmed/denied this though.

Their posts about this being/not being Cult game read like pure theorizing, although I do agree that this:

Looks pretty weird in context. @UnknownTraveler Could you tell us why did you make this precise post above?
Like, what was the purpose of it.

The post about “slip” actually read genuine to me, not to mention that I don’t believe it was a slip to begin with.
Maybe I’m giving Unknown too much of a free pass because I’m reading them as a newer player, but even this list aside – I don’t think they have been pushing any kind of agenda? One could argue that they are trying to coast and their activity did drop today, but I’m not a huge fan of activity reads except for a few cases where they are actually relevant.

It all depends on the act. You see, I once infiltrated groups pretending to believe something entirely different than what I actually believe and from that I can tell you it’s easy to fake some things. I could have seen myself pulling tricks like this at one point, but they are usually a 1 trick pony. I would pull out every newbie trick in the book to sell the act. I am not UT, but let’s not discredit the ability for someone to act as something they aren’t/

So about this.
I think this actually summarized the things that felt “off” to me about PKR in a way that I didn’t do myself.
The main points I agree with are:

His constant mention of pressure (which I actually didn’t notice before because I didn’t really bother looking too deep into his posts that weren’t reads on people/mech).
Selfvote/AtE aside (as those are apparently typical for him), the TMI argument + the fact that he said he was “under pressure” with a singular vote on him still read absurd to me.
I agree that he should never be cleared off of his claim along and I’ve already talked about it before.
It doesn’t take much to see that I didn’t die and claim the heal on me, not to mention that his reasoning for healing me over Magnus is still weak imo. The logic of “in a scenario where I risk potentially dying versus healing someone and seeing them die through my heal, the first is totally safer” is just wrong. Especially when he said that people should’ve been careful healing Magnus before that.

Oh yeah, this thing. @PokemonKidRyan everything else in that post aside, have you seen any people that fit the description so far? I.e., any NK candidates that seem to be “only out for themselves”? It’s been 3 days so I think it would be very much possible to read into behavior.

The bleed reactions were something that I didn’t look at myself, though, to be fair:

This wasn’t really a hard conclusion to make by any merit. The bleed on me never had a reason to come from town.

This somewhat irked me but I let it go, mainly because he replied to me when I was asking for Eighty’s opinion because I initially misread her post and thought she said that bleed could come from town.
So you think that post was made just to look productive?

On the council section – I’m actually surprised that you didn’t include his posts where he was saying that he wouldn’t be taking any responsibility:

Particularly the first one, that I thought I pointed out myself before but apparently I didn’t.

True though eventually the mask slips sooner or later does it not? I don’t see this coming from Unknown Traveler, though I do wonder if I’m underestimating their ability to play as scum.

But what’s the point of posting a nulllist if both the nulllist and a few weak, consensus reads accomplish the same thing.
Except nulllist arguably makes you look worse and making a few reads requires less effort?

Also CRichard, have your opinions on anyone aside from TBE changed so far?
You didn’t post a full readlist in Allies.

I’ve got a funny feeling about PKR having NK equity here. I wouldn’t mind if PKR got jailed to see if we get less kills N3. If we still get NK kills, then that would clear PKR as NK. I don’t think PKR is group scum either starting or convert in any world here.

Well, we don’t have a ‘traditional’ jail (except with Zealot but Zealot is NK itself so yeah) – it’s either he’s RB’d by someone, or Executioner just chops him.
I guess RBing him could be a valid thing? But it doesn’t tell us that much because there are several things that can stop kills.
Also that delays/ruins the whole confirmation plan that I still want to talk about more when people are here.

I guess the rest of your reads are the same?

Yeah pretty much. If PKR doesn’t get jailed, then who should get jailed instead in PKR’s place then?

I just said there’s no real jail.
It’s either occupy or Exe’s Execution, which only prevents visitors to someone and kills them without occupying them.

Hmm unless I’m mistaken this does act like jail?

For some reason I keep forgetting about this because it’s a day ability, don’t mind me.

I guess this could be used on PKR but I don’t want to talk how Executioner should/should not use their abilities.
And like I said even if kills are missing it doesn’t tell us that much since protection/healing/whatever is a thing.

We still need Executioner to take care of TBE. I’ll look through the spew we can get from them soon. In theory they could still be a scumsided Neut though, so it would be good to know their flip for tomorrow’s lynch.

Do you have any other thoughts on people who aren’t TBE/PKR?
I saw people discussing Emilia as a theoretical conversion before, but I think that it’s too early to convert hunt.

Not to mention that iirc the only argument for it was activity drop, though she did post later.

I saw people talking about Centuries being a possible group scum.
As I’ve said before, this could be the first time I’ve seen Centuries play as scum here so their flip would tell us if we’re on the right track or not.

I’ve also noticed the activity drop, although I don’t think any sane person would convert Emilia. If people think that Centuries is CL who was forced to convert them, I suppose I could make a meta case on them later today?

I think it’s more likely Emilia is starting scum who couldn’t keep up their towny appearance than a convert.

There was also talk about potentially misclearing him but (if we disregard mech, because I didn’t realize that Wazza softed Tailor before) he’d be more of a null again.
Which is precisely why I want PKR to confirm himself through him, because if he is an actual investigative, then he will know if redirection happens or not.
If he isn’t, then he will have to guess – and in case he says that there was no red and PKR is town, he just dies next.
Though, like I said, it is possible that he’s a Seeker in vacuum.

I don’t think I’ve seen anything at all that made me think Emilia is starting scum?
Like yes, some of her takes could be viewed as “flat”, but from what I remember she actually had independent opinions and wasn’t so quick to sheep the consensus:

Yeah, no, I don’t think they’re starting scum - just more likely to be starting scum than a convert.

That being said, I don’t remember any of their posts, so it would still be good if they were more active.

I seem to remember Emilia subbed in for Apprentice and their slot seemed fine.
Perhaps I should take another look at their slot for reevaluation.