Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 5 [6/15] - Mafoa win, Everybody (including chloe) loses

I mean good villager

Dont get me wrong

Marl is a good kill in pretty much every wolf world that can exist, simply cause he was obvtown and super fucking loud

but again, there were good kills, and you can pocket marl because of his tunnel on Chleb, or you can make look terribad from killing chleb

Level 3: Elite player, played lots of games, has lots of experience
An elite player will have great tone and will be strong at fabricating reads. What to do in a situation like this when you have no meta? Well, one answer would be find enough villagers and just keep this player in your PoE. But we’re here to look for wolves! And the highest chance for strong wolves to make mistakes is:

  1. During the opening pages.
  2. During EoDs when a wolf has to push the mafia agenda and risk his position (More on these first two points in MORE ADVANCED CONCEPTS).
  3. By constantly making incorrect reads. The moment you gain the ability of finding villagers it will be easier for you to assess an elite player. If he insists on ignoring signs of towniness of players he’s pushing, it should set off alarm bells.

This article also would yeet Chloe off the face of the earth if it had a vote

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i could be like over analyzing this and it legit can be occams razor, where arete and/or chleb wolfs just kill marl cause he was dangerous to them

look at what he’s doing lol

I think Both Chloe and Arete should just die over marshal today

and i stand by that

Arete wolf also heavily exists in both a chleb or marshal wolf world

so yea

I mean they

sorry I should probably stop typing so fast

I am willing to vote Marshal (and that’s currently where my vote is at) for reasons I have stated before. I think his sheeping of Arete is especially weird, regardless of Arete’s alignment, because I just don’t see town blindly sheeping Arete’s readlist without at least questioning some of it first.

I am willing to vote Arete because I still don’t think I’m just totally wrong with my reads, and since Arete also pretty much cleared Marshal and Chloe in their worlds, if I believe Arete then I have to put at least some faith in their clearing of both slots, and I just don’t think it’s likely (but not impossible). W!Arete should be fully capable of clearing themselves out of the PoE and I wouldn’t expect any less. Is that the only reason to wolfread them? No, but it’s still a thing I don’t want to ignore.

I am willing with some reservation to vote Chloe because of Occam’s razor and because there is nothing that says she can’t be a wolf other than her rambling thought processes today which I’m not sure if she is or isn’t capable of faking (I have no meta on her wolfgames).

I am willing to vote Sulit because she gave no towny vibes whatsoever in the reaction test (or whatever you call it, quick response) Chloe threw at her and looked more like she was trapped by lack of ways to back her own reads up.

I will not vote Firekitten unless I chance my stance on Arete. Does it mean I have to flip Arete? No. Could they still be w/w distancing from each other? Yeah, I guess they could. But I feel like I’ve done a crappy job at analyzing his slot since my initial thought when ISOing him the first time was “wolfwolfwolf” and then my second thought, while in the live thread with him and actually interacting, was that he might not be as wolfy as I initially thought he was, based on his reactions and interactions.

I think I’m ok with saying I still have a townlean on Blizer but I would be willing to change that with enough evidence against him. I had a TL on Mist and I still have a TL on Blizer for reasons I mentioned earlier, but their slot is still up for debate as well and I wouldn’t say I’d never vote them.

uh
who’d I miss
I think those are the only people I’d consider yeeting in this game

Never yeeting Leafia or Grace
and I’m really sure Gorta is in my towncore, for reasons, although it’s fine if he’s not in anyone else’s towncore
Don’t want to reassess Light or Centuries right now, either, although if someone makes a really good case against them I’ll have to do a think, but it’s going to have to be a good case (which is like… not the one Arete posted about Centuries tbh)

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i just put gorta in his own like tier

which is tree

I thought we were stopping with the preflips
but fwiw I agree with this and this is exactly what I’ve been saying for almost the entire day
with Arete simply going at me and telling me I’m not considering a v/v world when all I said is I think it’s less likely

idk I find tree a good enough reason to be in a tier of his own lol

i mean yeah preflips bad

but preflips good ya know

I need to get better at just ignoring preflips
but so far I don’t think my preflip analysis in general has been that bad in any game
or idk, maybe someone wants to tell me otherwise

prefljps are bad if you are killing someone solely for being a wolf with someone who hasn’t flipped

I’m not sure why people are so opposed to it in other circumstances

Like you can’t just ignore how people are acting with each other in the game and there’s a chance glgl would have died before yog could say anything

I mean, we probs shouldnt touch preflips

but we also kinda have to, cause, like associations

its like choclate

you like to have it, but its also really bad for you

well fine
but if I stop all the talking about preflips and just focus on in-thread interactions
a lot of my conclusions remain the same tbh

also I legit cannot tell if Chloe was trying to pocket me earlier or not lol