How I convinced myself Arete is probably a wolf
Arete was quick to try to derpclear me for realizing that there would normally be 4 wolves in a 15p game. This isn’t the first derpclear they’ve tried to give someone a little too fast and for not very well grounded reasons imo (the other one I remember being Gorta for not reading the EoD vote count).
So I pointed it out to Arete and the response I got was pretty underwhelming, like they just immediately rescinded the derpclear.
When I countered it by saying they shouldn’t derpclear me so easily because I did go the whole game up until that point thinking there were 3 wolves (because, duh, I had skimmed the OP when I replaced in but I only forgot the specific reason why I assumed there were 3), Arete said there’s a chance I could’ve just made it up, implying it was somehow performative rather than a derpclear. Which, yes, is something I encouraged by saying it shouldn’t be a derpclear, but also they went a little too fast from “Wind is derpcleared” to “Wind is wolfy”.
I don’t know how the Marshal/Chloe thing comes across as TMI; I actually don’t know what about it specifically could be seen as TMI and I’d like more of an explanation on it. All I said was that essentially I think Marshal flips wolf regardless of Chloe’s alignment, but Chloe could flip either way. Marshal’s flip never clears Chloe, and Chloe’s flip doesn’t clear Marshal, but I would personally want to vote out the player I think is wolfier first (because I consistently didn’t do that in the JoAT game except for D1 and that was two huge mistakes I made in my townplay). We never leave Marshal or Chloe to LyLo, anyway, because it’s pretty objectively not a good idea.
Also, I don’t think people have been slapping townreads on me. I’m still in the PoE of at least half the players. Only Chloe has TR’d me afaik, so idk where Arete’s getting this idea that I seem to be consensus TR’d.
Their case on me builds off the idea that I already knew the exact reason Marl was nightkilled, which comes across as strange to me because I see no reason why I couldn’t make a guess as town and also feel at least somewhat confident my theory is not a shot in the dark. Arete says I’ve given Marl’s death as a reason to townread Chloe, when Chloe is still sitting in my PoE and definitely not what I’d call a townread (the only thing I’ve said is that Marshal is below Chloe in my readlist, which I still stand by).
I honestly don’t know if what I said about the night kill got misconstrued and that other people thought that I specifically meant that Chloe is town. That was never the intention; I just meant, as I explained earlier, that probably the wolfteam is not exactly Arete/Chloe because it would be a better wolf move to discredit Marl and let him live as opposed to straight-out killing him because he had deadly accuracy. I could be wrong, though, but that’s just what I personally think is a better wolf play. Why people decided to jump off the Chloe wagon hopefully has nothing to do with what I said about Marl’s reads; you should all be making your own decisions and not just sheeping what I say. I’ve never been the ringleader in this game, anyway, so I kind of doubt this was even an issue.
Arete then pulls the following quote from me:
My response:
So here Arete cases me as wolfy because my actions don’t line up with what I’ve been saying, and I’m not sure if it’s just a case of town misinterpreting me but it feels more like a wolf grasping for ways to twist what I’ve said into potential scumtells for the sake of pushing me.
I just think Arete’s overall case on me is actually not that strong and has a lot of holes in it that can only be chalked up to 1. opportunistic wolf or 2. misinterpretation because lol town can’t read, but Arete’s smarter than that and I think this is just plain wolfy at this point.
I gave this a lot of thought in the past hour or two so I figured I’d post this while my head is clear and I think my logic is pretty sound. I also know there is at least one person who will jump on me for this post and say “it’s a lot of information with no actual content” but you know what, I don’t really care because it’s actually not AI for me. And here I am giving an actual conclusion that I think Arete is a wolf. This is not an OMGUS. I have a tendency to read people back when they scumread me, and for the most part it ends up being townreads (which have so far turned out correct). If I actually scumread someone for scumreading me, it’s because I feel there are serious flaws in their arguments, as I’ve pointed out here. I will absolutely listen to counterpoints to everything I’ve said, and I will still consider that a world exists in which Arete is town, but this interaction with them did not convince me of it. They were sitting closer to my nullreads before, and now I kind of want to drop them farther down than Chloe.
tl;dr - the summary title says it all. don’t bother reading if you don’t like words.
