Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 5 [6/15] - Mafoa win, Everybody (including chloe) loses

Forum Matches Completed
#12403

If I take everyone’s mindmeld claims into account from any point in the game (and mind you, this is from my pov):

Blizer melded with Chloe and Osie
I melded with Chloe and FK

And I make the assumption that wolves won’t be able to fake a mindmeld easily, then I could clear all of those slots (and we know Osie flipped town).

That leaves:

Light
Leafia
Gorta
Centuries
Grace

As possible wolves.
I know this is a really incorrect way to clear people but I’m trying to see if it leads me to any new conclusions. At least from my pov I genuinely felt like I had melded with FK and Chloe, and Blizer seems to have similar feelings about Osie and Chloe, so it’s at least worth some consideration as I try to reconstruct a PoE.

#12404

If I look at these 5 and ask myself which of them would be most likely to lead the team in such an effective manner that we end up yeeting town every days, I think the answer would be Centuries. He’s been very active this whole game, much more so than the other 4 people in this list.

In order to really believe this, though, I have to convince myself that I’m absolutely certain that neither FK nor Chloe is a wolf, which… Im still not sure about. It’s just that I really do see both of them having given reasoning that I resonated with and that seemed like a genuine take and not fabricated, even if it ended up being wrong. I don’t think FK pulled his case against Arete out of his ass because I had similar thoughts. I don’t think Chloe is posting pure bullshit because I do see some reasoning behind it (although I haven’t played with her before so I could be misclearing her).

I misread Cents in Countries FM as towny when he was a lost wolf,and I certainly could have misread him in this game. On D1 and half of D2 I was perfectly content to TR him,partly because I saw him putting in effort and partly because of a dumb bias that I didn’t want to have to look beneath the surface in reading him.

On D2 I realized this and started questioning my read on him, and by D3 I was SRing him.
the Sulit flip did make me slightly doubt my SR on him again,especially since my vote has consistently been on a town consensus wagon every single day and it’s been wrong, but usually if I survive until later in the game I can more or less figure out the scumteam. I’m not at all confident I can do it in this game,though, and my WiM is poop, but I’m throwing these thoughts out while I still can.

Also,Centuries was in Osie’s legacy PoE and Osie might be a decent player to sheep tbh.

#12405

just woke up from a nap

reading up

#12406

Thing about the mindmeld is that my mindmeld with Chloe is a bit weak tbh, so I’d rather trust Blizer on whether he thinks she should or shouldn’t be cleared.

#12407

/unvote @katze

I’ll do this for now

#12408

Ban Count

Getting Banned Banners Votes to be Banned
Light Firekitten, Chloe 2/5
Chloe Light 1/5
WindwardAway Leafia 1/5
Not Voting Centuries, an_gorta_pratai, Grace, Blizer, WindwardAway 5
#12409

meh

dont know what to say

#12410

I really don’t think Chloe is scum

I think she’s probably getting pocketed

Kinda weird how me defending Chloe = pocketing but others actually abusing the way she does threadreads to pocket her isn’t like, actually noticed

#12411

When I defend Chloe I’m not looking for a TR from her, I’m looking to actually save her, which is something that you were close to doing twice

like am I dumb for thinking there’s 2 or more wolves in Wind/FK/Blizer

I think TRing on Mindmelds is dumb, you can fake Mindmelds without much precedent, my read on Chloe can’t be faked with this much progression I feel

#12412

I feel like the lack of actual action? fighting? indicates that a wolf hasn’t been a serious wagon option today. We’re this close to LYLO yet there’s no actual fights? Light just sits there? I don’t really feel it’s something a wolf would do?

My issue is that the wagon I want is yet again unfeasable because somehow this gamestate happens

I dunno, we are too fucking scattered around, I don’t feel like current wagon composition does us any good and Wolves probably aren’t all on the same wagon so they can accelerate

That’s how I feel at least

#12413

If Chloe is town we have seen that the wolves can do contradicting NKA, in a world where the vast majority of viable NKs (might aswell say all of them) actually SR me it’s really dumb to actually look at the kills and go “lvl 1 NKA conroy is wolf”

I think Osie didn’t have good reads, like Grace in PoE despite her being obvious V, Gorta/Leafia as a team? I really doubt they are aligned here (at least not W/W) so with my knowledge Osie was probably killed to push a wolf agenda, Osie would have flipped reads if all their TRs stayed alive I feel, Chloe is obviously alive because Chloe, at the very worst there’s a wolf in like Gorta/Leafia which I doubt. FMPOV it’s apparent enough that Osie wasn’t killed for having correct reads but moreso for having potential solve~ish the day after. With no actual good NKs for scum outside of Osie, the kill probably served them both in the fact that they could’ve been the most correct person who is TR’d the day after and well, they had reads that were wrong enough that you can push agenda from it

#12414

The Wind/FK connection is really weird, they ignore the fact that they were each other actually scumread by Arete and they just reflect onto me, I feel like this buddying (more-so ignoring reads) is W/W indicative.

I think Blizer is the likeliest villager out of the 3 because I don’t think Blizer actually exploits Chloe’s faulty way to make reads.

I feel like talking about “who would do what NK” is pretty dumb, both angles can be correct, the reads have to come from actual dayplay, threadreads, not paranoia.

As Arete pointed out, both FK & Wind wanted the status quo to remain. Arete probably didn’t understand my read on Chloe back then but on the other hand Wind/FK really feel like opportunist pushing for Chloe

Their readflip don’t happen at the same time but both seem pretty not natural? I don’t think it’s both as damning, there’s points that hurt one more than the other.

I’m playing this as if they were the same entity, I’m kinda narrow-focused on that but eh

#12415

Since Blizer/Chloe are playing this angle where the FK read gets flipped upside down from nowhere I guess that I have to co-operate with the 3 townies out of the Grace/Leafia/Light/Gorta pool and then convince one of Chloe/Blizer

I’m also realizing that I’m not in that bad of a spot, I’m afraid of the thread collapsing on me but wagons don’t look that bad as of right now

#12416

Ok so if I throw the whole mindmeld thing out the window and I’m not a wolf, who do I vote?

#12417

Wind’s reaction to me being potentially really feels like they are trying to keep the status quo

This kinda feels like TMI if I flip

And this is kinda like, not evaluating me it’s just boasting how good their read is

Thats’ my take

#12418

Who do you think makes the most sense as scum if you scrap the mindmeld

#12419

It’s not boasting I literally said it’s been wrong the entire game lol

#12420

I’m trying to make myself generate more WiM by posting more

doesn’t usually work

here it kinda does

#12421

Still you

#12422

Late game reads