Shortnight 2: Return of the POGGERS - Day 5 [6/15] - Mafoa win, Everybody (including chloe) loses

[Arete]

Wind
sulit
maybe you/FK/Conroy (not as, like, the three of you, but like, all of you individually fit into that world)

[Aelin]

Oh fuck I forgot the wolves are in me, Leafia, and Grace

[Blizer]

Again

Bussing is legit a strat here in mountanious

so yea anyone really doesnt think this is viable, idk what to say man

[WindwardAway]

yeah see Arete’s pushing the same agenda they set up earlier in the day where I’m a wolf lol

[Arete]

I mean

no, there aren’t

like I’ve actively trying to avoid being annoyed about this because it’s not productive but 90 percent of the arguments people have used to scumread me boil down to ‘Arete was deathtunnelling Chloe so they must be W/W’ which is … legitimately one of the worst arguments I’ve ever heard … and the remaining 10 percent can be summarized as ‘Arete is pushing me so they’re scum/Arete made a take I don’t like so rather than actually giving it five seconds of thought I’ll accuse them of pushing agenda’

[Arete]

Wind you’re not trying to evaluate my mindset for doing anything you’re just going ‘Arete has a TAKE that I DON’T LIKE so it must be agenda’ rather than trying to figure out what my motivation would be for having that take as each alignment (especially given that none of the people that the take in question is about have even flipped yet)

I think you’re a better villager than that

[Blizer]

Hottest take in the world

Arete/Wind so far looks t/w, and i can see either worlds here btw

[Centuries]

@Blizer

t/v

t/v

[Blizer]

fuck, i needed another v

[WindwardAway]

the reason I’m very interested in Arete’s slot is not just because they’re pushing me.

it’s because in all the games I’ve previously specced that Arete has been in, I fairly consistently TR’d them, even when they were scum.
And it’s not happening here. I wonder why.

@Arete I am not SRing you because of your push on Chloe. Literally anyone could’ve pushed on Chloe for her D1 opener, although it was easier for wolves to grab onto a target if she’s town (and if she’s a wolf, she’s an easy bus anyway). I think a lot of town has been SRing Chloe so that’s not a valid reason to point at you and say you’re a wolf.

I gave my case on you earlier because I wasn’t satisfied with your interaction with me, and also with Gorta, and I will quote it again just to prove my point.

@Arete

Wind you’re not trying to evaluate my mindset for doing anything you’re just going ‘Arete has a TAKE that I DON’T LIKE so it must be agenda’ rather than trying to figure out what my motivation would be for having that take as each alignment (especially given that none of the people that the take in question is about have even flipped yet)

I think you’re a better villager than that

This is like a desperate pocket attempt but it ain’t gonna work tbh

It literally has nothing to do with whether I do or don’t like your takes. Look at my post against you again.

@WindwardAway

How I convinced myself Arete is probably a wolf

@WindwardAway

Wait how many wolves are in this game lol

I think I made a mistake cause I assumed it was 3 and literally just realized it’s 4
Aaaaaaaa

@Arete

is this a derp clear

Arete was quick to try to derpclear me for realizing that there would normally be 4 wolves in a 15p game. This isn’t the first derpclear they’ve tried to give someone a little too fast and for not very well grounded reasons imo (the other one I remember being Gorta for not reading the EoD vote count).

@WindwardAway

It is not a derp clear, I would always have assumed there were 4 to begin with had I not read the OP

and I did in fact read the OP but forgot that’s why I knew there were 3

If anything you should be questioning me more for it and not less lol

So I pointed it out to Arete and the response I got was pretty underwhelming, like they just immediately rescinded the derpclear.

@Arete

well I mean

if you’re a wolf then you’d always know there are three

so the question is whether I believe that you didn’t make that up

When I countered it by saying they shouldn’t derpclear me so easily because I did go the whole game up until that point thinking there were 3 wolves (because, duh, I had skimmed the OP when I replaced in but I only forgot the specific reason why I assumed there were 3), Arete said there’s a chance I could’ve just made it up, implying it was somehow performative rather than a derpclear. Which, yes, is something I encouraged by saying it shouldn’t be a derpclear, but also they went a little too fast from “Wind is derpcleared” to “Wind is wolfy”.

@Arete

Windward’s posting over the last hour or so has been legitimately wolfy

why do people townread her again

like she has some individually good wallposts but on a macro level her reasons for voting Marshal over Chloe feel like she’s trying to force herself to come to a specific conclusion (which is wolfy regardless of their alignments, like, I’m not saying ‘so this makes Marshal town’) which is kind of TMIish

I don’t know how the Marshal/Chloe thing comes across as TMI; I actually don’t know what about it specifically could be seen as TMI and I’d like more of an explanation on it. All I said was that essentially I think Marshal flips wolf regardless of Chloe’s alignment, but Chloe could flip either way. Marshal’s flip never clears Chloe, and Chloe’s flip doesn’t clear Marshal, but I would personally want to vote out the player I think is wolfier first (because I consistently didn’t do that in the JoAT game except for D1 and that was two huge mistakes I made in my townplay). We never leave Marshal or Chloe to LyLo, anyway, because it’s pretty objectively not a good idea.

Also, I don’t think people have been slapping townreads on me. I’m still in the PoE of at least half the players. Only Chloe has TR’d me afaik, so idk where Arete’s getting this idea that I seem to be consensus TR’d.

@Arete

a lot of the time when you look at the evidence for them it feels like you had your conclusion already in mind, like earlier when you were saying that the Marl nightkill made her more likely to be town because wolves probably killed Marl to make her look suspicious (despite not having any particular reason to think that was the case, like, it’s not like we can compare it to other nightkills this game or whatever), the thought process is almost there but not quite there

that’s not the only example but it’s the first one that comes to mind

@Arete

sure

but that’s not a reason to townread her

@Arete

see you say that but your actions suggest otherwise!

Their case on me builds off the idea that I already knew the exact reason Marl was nightkilled, which comes across as strange to me because I see no reason why I couldn’t make a guess as town and also feel at least somewhat confident my theory is not a shot in the dark. Arete says I’ve given Marl’s death as a reason to townread Chloe, when Chloe is still sitting in my PoE and definitely not what I’d call a townread (the only thing I’ve said is that Marshal is below Chloe in my readlist, which I still stand by).

I honestly don’t know if what I said about the night kill got misconstrued and that other people thought that I specifically meant that Chloe is town. That was never the intention; I just meant, as I explained earlier, that probably the wolfteam is not exactly Arete/Chloe because it would be a better wolf move to discredit Marl and let him live as opposed to straight-out killing him because he had deadly accuracy. I could be wrong, though, but that’s just what I personally think is a better wolf play. Why people decided to jump off the Chloe wagon hopefully has nothing to do with what I said about Marl’s reads; you should all be making your own decisions and not just sheeping what I say. I’ve never been the ringleader in this game, anyway, so I kind of doubt this was even an issue.

Arete then pulls the following quote from me:

@WindwardAway

because I think Marl was specifically killed to throw us off the wolf trail, and not because he was right

My response:

@WindwardAway

Yes, because I’ve seen that happen where someone dies and they’re either half wrong or fully wrong on the wolf team but everyone runs off with it as gospel and reads the game incorrectly due to that.

He said the wolf team was Chloe/Arete so likely the team is not exactly Chloe/Arete. I didn’t say both of you are town, or that you’re w/v. Anything that isn’t w/w makes Marl wrong.

So here Arete cases me as wolfy because my actions don’t line up with what I’ve been saying, and I’m not sure if it’s just a case of town misinterpreting me but it feels more like a wolf grasping for ways to twist what I’ve said into potential scumtells for the sake of pushing me.

I just think Arete’s overall case on me is actually not that strong and has a lot of holes in it that can only be chalked up to 1. opportunistic wolf or 2. misinterpretation because lol town can’t read, but Arete’s smarter than that and I think this is just plain wolfy at this point.

I gave this a lot of thought in the past hour or two so I figured I’d post this while my head is clear and I think my logic is pretty sound. I also know there is at least one person who will jump on me for this post and say “it’s a lot of information with no actual content” but you know what, I don’t really care because it’s actually not AI for me. And here I am giving an actual conclusion that I think Arete is a wolf. This is not an OMGUS. I have a tendency to read people back when they scumread me, and for the most part it ends up being townreads (which have so far turned out correct). If I actually scumread someone for scumreading me, it’s because I feel there are serious flaws in their arguments, as I’ve pointed out here. I will absolutely listen to counterpoints to everything I’ve said, and I will still consider that a world exists in which Arete is town, but this interaction with them did not convince me of it. They were sitting closer to my nullreads before, and now I kind of want to drop them farther down than Chloe.

tl;dr - the summary title says it all. don’t bother reading if you don’t like words.

[Centuries]

pictured

wind arete

[Chloe]

my ego doesnt want to read arete rn
like
i feel
like im
allergic
to wolfrete
because it would mean i was right in the first 20m of the day

i’ll re-read all of this later unless something big jumps out at me

[Arete]

@WindwardAway

This is like a desperate pocket attempt

…it’s not a pocket attempt, I’m calling you a wolf

[WindwardAway]

oh god did the collapse thingy disappear

RIP sorry for the ridiculous length

[Centuries]

wait blizer do u think its v/v or w/v

[Blizer]

v/w

[Firekitten]

back

[Centuries]

i dont think its wind

[WindwardAway]

I’ll continue to push on Arete tbh, they’re not making their slot look better right now

[Centuries]

but then i already think its arete