Carrots?
Yeah the carrots and ranch thing
Do youhave anything to say about all that
Or how they interacted with wind or anything
Go back and read
Its back when you ragequit from me being booty
Its a good discussion to read if you think arete is a slot that needs to be looked at
reasons why Chloe/Marshal are probably V/V
okay so
this started off as a tinfoil
but I’m pretty sure it’s right
so I’m just … going to type up my reasoning, and maybe we can spend the next two days not chainexeing them and watching them both probably flip village
if I’m wrong you can make fun of me in post-game, that’s fine, whatever, I’m used to it at this point 
- Macroreads on each of them
So I’m not going to dispute that on a micro level, they’ve both done some things that are kind of wolfy, like for example Chloe’s entire opener, and how Chloe handled her read on me, and the fact that they’ve both tried to directly appeal to me in kind of sketchy ways. But if you actually look at their macro-level play it’s mostly … not particularly wolfy? both of them have way too many posts so I’m not going to go through their entire Isos but to list off some things I found townie from each of them:
1.A Marshal
- a lot of his posts feel like he believes them, he can fake some level of conviction (at the very least, he can fake ‘tunnelling people’) but e.g. when pushing Mist he seemed genuinely excited
- he’s been actively trying to clear/sort the LHFy slots (e.g. him trying to get Gorta to derpclear himself by asking about yesterday’s EoD wagons), technically it’s possible that he’s W/W with them but that’s fairly specific, if Gorta is town I think it’s much more likely to be an honest attempt at sorting him than a pocket attempt because a Gorta pocket is basically useless for how much thread influence he has, and he’d be basically giving up a free miselim
- he has some individual posts that just … feel like they were written by a villager, examples:
(these aren’t all of them just a few that I remembered)
- his overall approach to today, where he cleared literally the entire playerlist minus three people, is villagery even though I think he’s wrong, like I think if he were wolf he would be trying harder to keep his options open
1.B Chloe
- with a couple of exceptions her reads have been fairly waterfally, she’s been bouncing from point to point in a way that basically makes sense. the biggest exception here is actually her read on me? but I think overall it’s still true
- she has a bunch of posts where I’m like ‘aaa I have a hard time believing this was written by a wolf,’ I’m just going to quote a few of them, once again this isn’t necessarily all of them or even most of them
the last one in particular is pretty notable, it’s an absurdly specific thing to make up and she would have zero reason to bookmark that post as wolf
- Gamestate
2.A. No one ACTUALLY cares which of the wagons goes over
okay that’s probably a bad way of phrasing it because it’s technically false as written but basically–
–so, a lot of people have Strongly Expressed Opinions on who the wolf is in Marshal/Chloe, which they’re communicating by screaming at the thread that x is wolf wolf wolf. What people haven’t been doing is making any attempt to actually change which of the two gets voted out, like, people seem to care way more about Loudly Expressing Their View than about actively convincing everyone, which therefore means that wolves aren’t really trying to actively convince anyone. I don’t think this is necessarily a super strong point because wolves on this site are often pretty bad at pushing agenda, but.
2.B Everyone is okay with the ‘yeet one, then yeet the other if the first one flips town’ plan
Like, literally no one except me has expressed any concern whatsoever that this might be a bad idea that could lead to us wasting two days on chain-yeeting villagers back-to-back. This would be an incredibly easy angle for wolves to take if they’re W/W, but no one is actually pursuing it, which suggests that wolves are totally fine with the threadstate. Wolves being happy with the threadstate is most consistent with … wait for it … Chloe and Marshal being V/V.
- Their hypothetical reasons for thunderdoming in wolf!them worlds
Alright, so this is going to be important to some of the things I’ll talk about later, but basically we need to look at their reasons for trying to force this thunderdome, in worlds where one of them is a wolf and the other is a villager (technically this won’t be counting worlds where they’re W/W, but I think that’s unlikely at this point).
So, numerically speaking, a 1-for-1 is bad for wolves – in this set-up, if every wolf can get two villagers voted out and then gets voted out themself, wolves win, but if they can only get one villager voted out each before going down, they handily lose. In general wolves are going to be trying to avoid going 1-for-1 without a really good reason.
So do they have a really good reason? Well, Chloe is basically regarded as one of the strongest villagers on this site, Marshal isn’t as good of a villager as her but he’s generally considered at least decent even if we all make jokes about how he’s a lost wolf every game. But I don’t … actually think either of them would sacrifice themself to take the other one out, if that’s all they’re getting? Like, Marshal in particular is also considered one of the strongest wolves on the site. If they really want the other one dead they could just … kill them at night.
So what this suggests is that if they’re thunderdoming as wolves, it’s because they feel forced into it, like, they don’t think they can get more than one misexe anyway so they’re going all in, but they don’t actually want to. So one of the things I’m going to talk about in the next section is whether they’ve been behaving in a way that’s consistent with that world.
- Thread’s reaction to me proposing they’re V/V
Alright. So, we’ve established that in W/V worlds, wolves are probably not super much a fan of this thunderdome. Based on that we’d expect that if they’re W/W … literally anyone … would try to take advantage of my read to argue that maybe this thunderdome is a bad idea. Literally no one has done that, including the two of them (like, the closest we had was Marshal saying that he would maybe consider instead yeeting one of the people he thinks is a wolf with Chloe). The most likely explanation for why this is happening is that the wolves are totally fine with this situation, and probably laughing in scumchat about how this thread is just nonstop TvT violence.
I want to believe that the thread totally freaking out about me bringing up that possibility and several people pivoting into tunnelling me for thin reasons is indicative of me being right and wolves freaking out but I’m not sure that’s actually correct.
- Response to common counterarguments
In this section I will address some of the objections that people have brought up.
“But Arete, what if you’re a wolf who’s defending {Marshal/Chloe}?”
My arguments hold regardless of my alignment, you can read through them yourself and see whether they’re sound. (Also I blatantly don’t know who the wolves are this game but ‘people on this site are bad at reading me’ isn’t exactly a shock.)
“But Arete, Marshal was pushing Mist, which makes him a wolf going for LHF, which means he’s not V/V with Chloe.”
Even assuming Blizer/Mist is a villager (which I do think is likely), Mist was playing well outside of her normal villagerange (which she basically admitted to, though she did give explanations for that aren’t ‘she’s a wolf’). Marshal pushing Mist makes sense even in a world where they’re both town. Assuming that just because Marshal pushed a likely villager, that makes him a wolf, is literally Dybu Dabu tier logic.
“But Arete, Chloe had a bad opening.”
Yeah, she did, and I’m scared that I’m going to write this giant post about how she’s a villager and be wrong about it, but – I think on the macro level her play cancels out her opening, including in some ways that I don’t think she would think to fake if she were a wolf trying to make up for her bad opening.
“But Arete, Marl died N1.”
have you seen the way wolves on this site pick nightkills.
“But Arete, I really need to see Chloe’s flip/Marshal’s flip to help with my solving!”
No, you don’t.
Quite frankly, if you’re not a good enough player to make any attempt at reevaluating without a flip, you need to get better at the game? I tried to come up with a way to phrase that that doesn’t sound insulting, and I didn’t really manage to, because to be honest it kind of is.
Also, everyone’s arguments for what “info” they would get from a Marshal/Chloe flip, regardless of whether that flip is V or W, are extremely surface level “if X flips scum Y is scum for defending them/if X flips town Y is scum for pushing them” level reads, which are barely better than rand.
We kill wolves, not the players that you “think” “you” “need” “to” “kill.” Get better at the game.
“But Arete, if Chloe, Marshal, and you are all town, who are the wolves?”
I think Wind/Light/FK/sulit/Centuries can all fairly easily be wolves in that world. Maybe Trochi too, though I’ve found them villagery? (…when I was answering this question the first time I basically forgot they existed). It’s not actually hard to construct viable teams from that set of five. (those are the five in the intersection of ‘not especially villagery’ and ‘complacent about the Marshal/Chloe wagons’ (Litten less so re: the second part, he does seem to genuinely care which goes over, but.)
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@Aelin
@Chloe
@sulit
@Firekitten
@an_gorta_pratai
@WindwardAway
@Grace
@Centuries
@Trochilidae
@Leafia
@Blizer
@Marshal
read this please
Ok so if you think neither Marshal nor Chloe should be yeeted, who do you think should be voted out today?
I’m a bit more weirded out by the lack of conclusion to your wall, like who goes over then?