thank god its saturday
ftr Arete looks a bit townier after that interaction but I still need to think on it
As I said before, they’re not today’s yeet, so I think if I don’t get to casing them before EoD I’ll just examine their slot overnight
I’m still not convinced Marshal is town
I think very specifically his sheeping of Arete was weird
I see it as something a wolf would do to a wolf, but also something a wolf would do to town, and I’m not sure why town would do it to town
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Uh that last part was just, I don’t know why town would do it, period
Since the assumption is that Marshal has to read Arete as town if he’s town because town sheeps town and town does not sheep wolves, at least not intentionally
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Arete legacy post
okay so I’m going to start out this post by saying that I’ve given consideration to it and given some things pertaining to my sleep schedule, I think the healthiest thing for me to do is to not try to make EoD. I know this is probably selfish or whatever, I don’t care, if you’re a dick about it I’ll be, like, mildly annoyed with you
but. yeah. this is my legacy post, because I am in fact aware that doing this makes it way more likely that the yeet gets strongarmed onto me. I’m ?trying? to include my confidence level so that you know which reads you should and shouldn’t sheep.
People who are villagers
Grace: probably one of the purest slots I’ve ever seen in my entire time playing FM, I’m not going to spend too much time explaining this because I don’t think literally anyone disagrees with it. also that one post about dinner exists.
Leafia: This one is also pretty consensus (I’ve seen a couple people disagreeing with it but mostly people not familiar with Leafiameta), I think that given Leafiameta her overall number of independent thoughts/willingness to make reads that are against the thread consensus is a good look for her. Like, if you compare with Clown Fiesta, I’m pretty sure she literally did not have a single thought all game that was anything but a direct parrot of thread consensus, and that’s the general pattern in her wolfgame.
Chloe: I’ve explained most of my reasons for thinking she’s town in P#6129 (the big post on her and Marshal being probably V/V), even if you disagree with all of the gamestate stuff I think the macroread on Chloe stands on its own and is enough to put her here, I also think that her attempts at sorting through the game post-that-big-post have been super waterfally/from an uninformed perspective.
just to explain on the bookmark thing a little, because that’s legitimately super townie and it’s non-obvious why: Chloe as wolf has no reason to bookmark a post Centuries made about how he’ll eat glass or whatever it was, with three random unrelated people, and I think it would be incredibly specific for her to think of making that up
People who are vaguely floating around peripheral villagers
Gorta: I think some of his derps are very likely to come from town, like the thing about not really getting what happened at EoD1. Also, at various points he’s displayed a sort of hubris that I think is villagery, e.g. him acting like I should be scared of him, I think that’s an attitude that he’s more likely to present as villager (albeit not that much more likely, regardless of his alignment he has an inflated idea of his own skill). I’m pretty sure nearly all of his reads are wrong but that’s not actually wolfy for him, don’t use that as a point against him if he’s alive in lategame.
Marshal: See the big Chloe-Marshal V/V wallpost, he’s done some things that kind of sketched me out since I wrote that wallpost (e.g. he accepted it really quickly, also I’m not sure if it makes sense for him to have nearly so much confidence in my read on Chloe?) but I have him above rand town
Blizer: Mist’s posts kind of sucked, but Blizer coming in guns blazing with passion was fairly townie, particularly given the situation he was in
Light: This is honestly only here because of his big wallpost that he wrote in response to my big wallpost, but it had a lot of depth of thought to it which is something he struggles with as wolf, so he gets to be above the null line for now
idk, could go either way
Osie: Trochi had like one moment that looked like a legitimate derpclear, otherwise no one in that slot has really done much to move the needle
sulit: she has a lot of WiM for wolflit but the stuff Chloe quoted with her progression on Chloe/Marshal is kind of 
Here be wolves:
Centuries: honestly went back and forth on which category to put this in, this one or the one just above, but I think he fits better here? he had a generally kind of weird response to me daring to have the audacity to suggest that Chloe and Marshal might be V/V, he’s jokingly wolfclaimed in a kind of self-aware way, and he’s had some posts that rubbed me the wrong way, e.g. him being like ‘Arete and Wind could be V/V? what if?’ without actually acting on that whatsoever
Wind: basically every read they’ve made this game has been forcing a conclusion/only considering things from the PoV of the conclusion they want, e.g. with one of their reads on me they were like ‘well Arete has been derpclearing people, and also pushing people, which could come from a wolf trying to pocket people and push miselims’ but never tried to consider or evaluate whether it made sense from a town perspective (they haven’t just been doing it with their read on me, they’ve been doing it with literally all their reads, this is just the first one that came to mind). they’ve also been misrepresenting more-or-less everything I’ve said, there are a handful of times where I can sort of see how someone could come to the conclusion they did once they explained it but for most of them … I have enough faith in their intelligence to believe that it wasn’t just a misunderstanding. Their reaction to my big wallpost also sucked, they basically tried to shade me by nitpicking minor details of what exactly my PoE was (which wasn’t remotely the point) and largely ignored the actual arguments until they were actually pressed on it. I think if I do end up flipping they’ll be very easy to read tomorrow based on how they end up reacting?
Litten: pretty much an outed wolf, has spent most of the day misrepresenting what I’ve been saying and ignoring my explanations so that he can accuse me of pushing agenda on Wind, despite the fact that Wind hasn’t even flipped, he also seemed like he knew coming into the day that Marl was going to die, and his reaction overall to me saying that Chloe and Marshal were potentially V/V has been actually awful. Kill this slot always, it pretty much never flips town.
SPECIFICALLY FOR IF I TURN OUT TO BE WRONG AND MARSHAL FLIPS SCUM
putting in this section just because it is something I can see myself being wrong about, I’m wrong on Marshal a lot, and a lot of my reads are semi-related to his flip
the big one is Gorta, I think Marshal flipping wolf would make Gorta look much worse specifically because of the derp clear, I think if Marshal flips wolf that clear was very likely to be staged for the purposes of clearing him, and the things he’s done this game are much less likely to be out of his wolfrange if he had Marshal coaching
I guess sulit maybe looks worse too because of the thing where they’ve been softdefending each other but I don’t actually think that’s a very strong point
other random notes
all of you are abjectly terrible at preflips, please stop doing them, like even if you’re right your thought processes behind making them are rand at best and in some cases probably worse
relatedly: Wind/Litten are not clear from being W/W off of interactions. Blizermist/Marshal are not clear from being W/W off of interactions. there are probably other pairs this applies to but this is the first thing that comes to mind?
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big trouble incoming but when people talk about me i feel the need to respond
thats very overblown imo
ok so
before your post i was pretty much thinking “chloe is v marshal is w” which i still think is the solve here, your wall pushes for a worldview that is in my opinion wrong and has ulterior motives
Chloe already pointed this out but bascially, what you’re trying to point out thread as like (before your post) is that it was basically an all-out war where it was Chloe VS Marshal nothing else discussion wise and our plan was to always kill both of them
IMO that’s totally not it
Marshal was at 5 votes, Chloe at 1, Chloe wasn’t the biggest CW to the Marshal wagon, Sulit was.
Thread consensus was pretty much “Chloe is most likely V” and Chloe’s likeliness of dying is way overblown
Already I don’t like how you paint it “me daring to have the audacity to challenge his worldview”
You make it look like my opinions/takes this game have been stale, unchanging and I’ve been pushing some weird wolf agenda in a V/V marshal/chloe world where I try to powerwolf and gib both of them villagers
I think it’s pretty obviously not what I’ve been doing, most of my reads have been flipped at one point, reminder that I was coming into the day with a Marshal!V Chloe!W take and that I proceeded to unvote Chloe when she was about to die to let her gain some time
The misrepresentation here is pretty damn hardcore
Once, yes. Firstly you’re ignoring the context which was literally Marshal himself making a “Gorta tree mafia joke” (you can see that I’m talking about the joke because my message before that was literally the tree emoji and a joycat I don’t think you can do any more obvious)
Then of course there’s the fact that you’re mis-using this meta, quite literally the last game we played together I also jokingly openwolfed, flipped town, but I guess this doesn’t fit your worldbuilding? You literally did something very similar in that game as a wolf, people pushed me saying I “openwolfed” and I yelled time and time again that I simply did not, it was a lie that was being used as a meme after we killed 2 mafia in the first cycle of the game and people basically had given up, back then you also ignored information and context in order to fit your agenda, last time you faked not seeing the posts where I was literally @ ing you telling I wasn’t doing that, this time I guess you just refuse to see the context?
Okay so finally this is the new argument you’re bringing up
Acting on what here? I said it was possibly V/V twice, Chloe mindmelded with me, I let you guys actually try and resolve the argument and you both acted very childlike by calling each other toxic and then going “nah its you the big bad wolf” and I wish I was actually using fallacies to mispaint you as something you didn’t do but you and Wind did that.
Only thing you can criticize me for here is not jumping into thread and going “Oh stop guys I think you’re V/V”, which do you really want me to go back and grab the posts there? Come on I’m not the police.
On my read, it’s only 55% serious, I do think there’s an association based read I can make, you and FK being V/W (and then it’s probably Sulit Marshal here)
I really don’t understand your read on me, it’s half literally ignoring important stuff / context and half just not going in dehpt
It’s shocking that I’m here instead of that
Because even if my ISO is 7x her size, I can bet you on my life in this game that I have over 7x the amount of posts that can get me townread for
I don’t know if it’s because my postcount is bigger so you’re being lazy about my slot
Or that you just put me here because along with the other two I’ve actually went against your wall that isn’t correct in its worldview
Or that you may simply be scum
but this read sucks
not even re-reading myself here im pressing reply and speedrunning my sleepschedule
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dont ask me why im even talking to you here when it doesnt look like you have interest in reading me so i might aswell speak to the thread
their read on me suck
its probably the same thing for a few other people
i know arete mafia goat or something but cmon
lets not treat this read as gospel
also yes its missing word hf figuring out my surrendermonkey cheese eating whiteflag speak
as ive said earlier, doesnt feel like ure interested in reading me and its more so that im put here for the sake of putting me somewhere
Once again, Arete is doing the same thing that he said I was doing to himself, which just reinforces the fact that he’s a wolf.
I just woke up and im having my coffee
i agree with that also
Occams razor is still like dancing in my mind, and Chleb CFD i want to do