Clarification: Actions are locked in 10 minutes before Night ends.
D2 Mass Ping Part 1:
@an_gorta_pratai
@Aelin
@PokemonKidRyan
@clonedcheese
@lol
@Intensify
@EVO
@WindwardAway
@eevee
@cdecora
Ow.
Anyways.
/vote EVO
I gave this slot some time during EoD to build a case for someone… didn’t do much during EOD… very unsatisfied with it.
Does anybody remember mins reads/did she give us a readlist at any point?
I don’t think she sussed anybody in particular, but i could be wrong
Overnight thoughts, Part 1:
Not spoilering this because if I do, you guys won’t read it kek
Ok, obviously my readlist needs restructuring since I was wrong on Marl and some of the players I put in my “don’t yeet this” list also voted him. Incorrectly tunnelling him when he was town is at least slightly less embarrassing than incorrectly towncoring him as wolf.
It’s pretty improbable that out of the 7 of us voting Marl (excluding Marl himself), all of us are town. I think even if he’d flipped wolf, it would be highly likely that at least one wolf would’ve been on his wagon at that point for towncred anyway, but that’s irrelevant now.
Does it mean the EVO counterwagon is pure and that EVO is scum? No, not necessarily. But I have a little more focus on the Marl wagon right now and at first glance I think at least 3/4 people on the EVO wagon are likely to be town, if not all of them, unless they give me a reason to reevaluate them. Gorta’s opener was >rand town indicative, Tilgarial hasn’t struck me as particularly wolfy because I follow their thought processes pretty well, and while I was unsure of GonZ earlier on D1 they’ve been trending upward in my reads. Aelin is the one I’m the least sure of, because I didn’t think she was as wolfy as everyone else was saying, but she started dropping in my readlist about halfway through the day. Anyway, I’m going to look into her slot on D2.
PKR and Eevee never came back for EoD. While I’m not faulting them for it, I’m just noting that PKR gave an opinion that Marl might not be scum but then didn’t place a vote at all, and Eevee made a fuss about this game being a commitment but didn’t end up voting either.
Eli and Intensify were both sitting roughly at null reads for me by the end of D1, so it’s a good enough starting point for me to work on their slots without worrying that I’ll be biased heavily in one direction or another from earlier in the game.
I can’t say the same for Min and Cloned, in contrast. I am gonna temporarily rescind my no-yeetus from Min and Cloned and see how they act today before deciding where to place them.
My WiM doesn’t just up and die when I’m wrong. It means my readlists get scrambled, and it means that my motivation kind of drops temporarily (and also RIP 100% readrate on Marl), but it means I need to work harder and do a better job of solving in order to win the game. So that’s what I’m doing now, although if my activity’s a bit spotty on D2 it’s mainly because I have an upcoming exam I’m studying for so I apologize for that in advance.
Do I think lol could be setting me up as the misyeet for the day because of my incorrect read on Marl? Yes, absolutely. Do I think this for sure? No, definitely not.
I don’t see it out of the range of feasible approaches for a villager to test my alignment. I’m town and I can defend myself from being misyeeted. If lol is a wolf, he’s risking his position a bit because chain yeeting me would also put him at risk for getting yeeted later, after I flip town.
I don’t expect that I’ll die tonight (N1) because of how lol set me up, and I’m not a consensus townread anyway. Only Marl townread me as his legacy, which you guys can do whatever you want with.
I respect Marl’s legacy reads, and while I don’t think they’re necessarily 100% correct, I already had kept track of his reads and progressions throughout D1 to look at them overnight. Yesterday I think the only reads we agreed on were Gorta being a townlean and Eli up to a point (I ended up throwing him back into the null zone by EoD and possibly a bit farther down). My read on Aelin shifted around a lot in the second half of D1 so I want to reevaluate her as well today. While I didn’t agree with Marl’s earlier points on her, I thought she had wolf equity a bit later in the day, but kind of ignored her for a while.
Out of the four players that Marl said he believed had at least one scum, PKR and Eevee didn’t vote, EVO voted Marl as self-pres, and lol said I’d get pushed D2 if Marl flipped town (which he did). All four of them were on my radar yesterday at various points in time, and they will also be on my radar today. I know Marl doesn’t always have correct reads, but as I stated before, I think he was correct when he made this statement.
Eli didn’t mention that Marl seemed scummy until right at EoD. Before that, he picked one post that he said was towny (the same one that Aelin and I said was scummy). The other three Marl mentioned here were all in his “at least one scum, if not two” list.
By the end of the day, Marl was against wagoning Tilgarial, GonZ, cdecora, Gorta, min (because he was trusting my read on them), and me.
As I said, I’ll reevaluate Min in case Marl’s first impression of them was right and mine was wrong. I haven’t really heard anyone else give much of an opinion on min that I recall, though. Out of those players, only min and I were on Marl’s wagon. Doesn’t mean I’ll ignore the rest of them, but they look less immediately suspicious than Min and I do.
I also want to add that the points that Aelin, Cloned and Min made on their cases against Marl all had points I could also see, and that’s why I had all of them higher in my readlist than Marl. Doesn’t mean any of us were right, but since I’m town and I was wrong, I could easily see other townies reaching the same conclusion with the same reasons. However, it makes it that much easier for a wolf to grab onto the same set of arguments, and in that case I actually think the order of who said what first is important here. I don’t want to spend my entire weekend backreading the thread when I have studying to get done, but I’ll reskim parts of it and try to get a timeline together. I had considered making a spreadsheet of reads to keep track of things in this game but I got lazy and decided I didn’t have the time for it, and settled for just taking notes instead.
Explanation on why I was wrong on Marl:
Simple. I make a gutread, I confbias myself into it, and I end up being wrong. Has happened before, probably will happen again, and every time I think “this time will be different!” it goes roughly the same. You’d think I’d learn, but all that happens is that sometimes I’m actually right and then it just fuels me to do the same old shit again. Sometimes I’m stubborn, sometimes I’m dumb, and this time I was both stubborn and dumb, but I can still redeem myself from this by correcting my reads and not giving up this early in the game.
There was something that seemed different about Marl’s entrance to the thread (not the ChopChop method lol) and for whatever reason, I picked up on it and ran away with it thinking it was a scumtell. I probably perpetuated it by immediately announcing a scumread on him tbh. Part of that was to test him but the rest was genuinely me thinking he was scum. I don’t know what it was that pinged me as off about his approach to the game, but I found evidence I thought supported my read on him and didn’t really disprove it. The towniest post he made was actually his legacy post, but at that point he was going over anyway. I misread his suggestion that I backread his last game to compare it to this one as a last-ditch attempt to self-pres and completely forgot that he has, in fact, done that as town before. Doesn’t mean I don’t think he’d do it as either alignment for that matter, but I feel like I should have been able to gauge his reaction more accurately if I didn’t have my head so far up my ass on that read (and yes, he reserves the right to mock me in the deadchat).
I gave my reasons for SRing Marl. I was confbiased, as you’ve all figured out. I probably did most of the pushing on him so it’s not surprising if a wolf or two just latched onto that opportunistically.
I don’t expect to be townread today. I expect the opposite, or at least to drop downward in the consensus read, because I was totally wrong on Marl and I take full responsibility for it. I don’t recall if I was the first to point out that Marl seemed scummy but I was definitely the most vocal, so I’m not pointing fingers at other people for potentially having thought he was scummy before I did. I only remember Tilga saying they had paranoia about me because they thought Marl was scummy before I said anything, and that it all seemed too easy, but on the contrary I still think they’re more likely town. It would be an easy way out for them as scum, and they could certainly join lol in pushing on me on D2, but the way in which Tilga explained their paranoia is something I can entirely understand as coming from town, mainly because I’m enough of a paranoid player that I can easily arrive at such conclusions.
The next thing is, if I started suspecting I might be wrong literally right at EoD, why didn’t I do anything about it? I was waiting to see if Marl would try to CFD onto anyone, and he sort of did, but there wasn’t much of a response except on the EVO wagon. Only his jumpy voting pattern and his legacy post made me rethink his alignment, but because I was being so incredibly bullheaded and paranoid about him, I thought if I swapped to voting EVO despite not SRing him, Marl (as scum) would survive, EVO would flip town, and I would get accused of changing my mind with absolutely no reasoning behind it.This is because I thought if I decided to let Marl live, I’d be wrong, and then nobody would ever vote him out. Kind of shitty reasoning, I guess, but on the other hand if he hadn’t been yesterday’s yeet I would most likely sit around being paranoid the whole of D2 and continue tunnelling Marl, which would just be even more detrimental to the game tbh. EVO’s flip wouldn’t have mattered to me because I’ve seen Marl try to hardbus scummates before, so in all honestly I probably would’ve come up with some theory along those lines.
Btw if parts of this post are repetitive, jumpy, or somehow have an incomplete sentence, it’s because I didn’t manage to write this all in one sitting and fell asleep at some point lol.
Also this post got too long so I’m chopping it into two posts now.
Overnight thoughts, Part 2:
So I went through and ISO’d some people to see if I could find anything I might’ve missed earlier, especially in context to the Marl yeet.
Whatever ISOs I had time for during the night:
ClonedCheese
I went back into Cloned’s ISO to see what I could find, and Cloned was not the first to SR Marl. He followed my lead.
I think his read on Eli at least made sense, but it was a bit low-effort. Didn’t see anything there that pinged me. I don’t really know what to think of his read on Intensify, though.
While I don’t find it completely weird that he plopped townleans on everyone who voted no exe, I guess it’s something worth noting. From previously playing with Cloned, I can say that he is often very non-aggressive with reads and votes on D1. In the Pokémon 9er, however, and also in the Thing Game, he was more aggressive with his reads and his votes, and while he didn’t try to lead town, he contributed significantly more to the D1 discussions than in other games I’ve seen him in. In this game, I see him being similarly active, maybe not aggressive per se but making reads and placing votes instead of refusing to. Ftr I’ve never seen a scum game from Cloned, but I’m just saying that his activity levels and willingness to make reads and act on them are not necessarily AI for him, and depend heavily on the game in question.
I vibed with this because I agree that Eevee was just being Eevee and not being scummy. I think Cloned might have been the first to question why lol read Eevee’s “aggression” as being scummy, and I think it was valid to point out.
Looking at the way Intensify handled Cloned’s slot and how Cloned responded to it, I just see a kind of wishywashy read from Intensify with no real conclusion, but somehow it results in a townlean from Cloned. Not sure what to think about that, but it certainly doesn’t eliminate a world in which they’re w/w.
In explaining his reasons for voting Marl, he gives the above list. I guess it’s partly my fault for not acknowledging that Marl does all three of those things as town too. Out of this list, I think the pocket paranoia and “bad faith pushes” were what convinced me Marl had to be scum. Random reads without explanations to go with them aren’t something I find unusual for him, but I guess when he entered the thread and went through his entire readlist I thought it looked weird because I’m used to just seeing a couple reads from him at a time. Then again, that’s probably because he had a lot of thread material to catch up on when he gave his reads so he was actually able to read more players than usual at that point.
I guess I thought at first glance that Cloned at least gave reasons I could see as being legitimate reasons for SRing Marl, since I had felt the same way about my read on him, but now that I’m looking at this it’s kind of a broad list of general things that Marl does on a regular basis. Cloned’s accusation that Marl might be trying to pocket Eli for the VT claim thing made sense to me, however (although that whole point is kind of invalid since Eli meant it as a joke anyway).
I think actually Marl did have a subtle tonal difference that might’ve been unintentional on his part, but considering how early I started SRing him and then everyone else started hopping on the consensus read boat, it might have just been due to that, so oops. That being said, that response from Cloned was a little meh.
I think the way Cloned brought up how Marl and Aelin were SRing each other, and yet Aelin decided to join Marl on the EVO wagon, was a decent point to bring up. (Maybe Aelin had already expressed that she thought Marl might be villager by then, but I don’t remember without looking it up.)
If Cloned legitimately isn’t familiar with Marl’s play style it actually makes way more sense for him to be town when he made that bullet list of things he found scummy about Marl (I don’t have the same excuse for myself, I’m just a confbiased idiot so lol).
extremely bad VT claim
3. Hegding
Then immediately jumps to
I didn’t really see this as a bad case at the time. Marl was jumpy with his votes a little before EoD (which I’ve seen him do as town, and I did actually think of that when I saw him doing it). But this case is also pretty low effort now that I’m looking at it again.
There were, in fact, several cases against EVO. I just didn’t think they were particularly strong cases, although I did follow the reasoning on some of them.
This post is a little off, actually. Cloned said earlier that he didn’t see why Marl was making so many things dependent on EVO’s alignment, and yet Cloned does the exact same thing he was complaining about and reads the Marl/EVO wagons as opposite alignments, instead of considering that there’s a world in which the wagons are T/T. The only reason I’m saying this is because at the very end, before Marl hammered himself, I considered that it was possibly T/T wagons. However, the voting pattern of going from tied wagons to making Marl the majority says otherwise (and I’ll look into that later).
Conclusion: Cloned is less towny than I thought, except for one particular thing. If he’s unfamiliar with Marl as a player and was trying to meta him only off the Catgrill game, then I can absolutely see his train of thought coming from town. I’ve seen him make extremely incorrect reads before as town, so it’s not out of his townrange.
EVO
I already gave my take on EVO’s no exe vote as not being particularly scummy. However, I could consider it NAI rather than towny, so I’ll stick with that for now and focus on the rest of his ISO instead.
I’m curious to see whether he actually takes the D1 wagonomics into account, considering EVO himself was a top wagon and very close to overtaking the Marl wagon.
I don’t remember seeing EVO give an explanation as to why he thought PKR was mega towny at any point. He gave an explanation for his quick read on Tilga, at least, although it’s kind of meh at best pretty low effort.
Taking this as NAI. It’s not really indicative at all of EVO’s alignment since he’s kind of self-metaing and also metaing Eevee. It could be putting Eevee within yeet range if EVO is a wolf and Eevee is town. Other than that, I don’t think it’s indicative of much and is most likely WIFOM if anything.
I think this is the only time EVO mentions Cloned. While I can agree with EVO’s statement here, I’m not sure what to think about the fact that he casually flicks a “Cloned might be town” in response to being accused of being w/w with Cloned, instead of defending himself or giving reasons why he isn’t a wolf with Cloned. It’s a little funny because it implies that EVO could still be a wolf and Cloned could be town, and yet EVO doesn’t really seem to care if he’s being scumread or not.
This reaction was… interesting? EVO was trying to figure out what Marl was doing, Marl answered that he was trying to start a wagon on Tilgarial, and all EVO had to say about it was “oh shit”. Then EVO didn’t have anything else to say until the Tilga wagon didn’t take off and Marl moved back to voting EVO instead, which convinced EVO to place his vote on Marl in turn.
Interestingly enough, I don’t get the impression that EVO thought Marl was scum. He said it would’ve been better to have a spicy CFD and implied that since the wagons on him and Marl are both stupid but Marl just made it worse for himself, he was just going to vote Marl anyway (and probably as self-pres).
Here’s the clarification. From what I can tell, he’s implying the wagons are probably T/T and that wolves are sitting on the sidelines.
Conclusion: I had a thought about EVO yesterday that his alignment would be more obvious later in the game, possibly starting on D2 already, so I’ll keep an eye out. But I won’t discount the chance the wagons yesterday were T/T, and neither will I discount the chance they were T/W wagons.
1 Like
eh, I posted both already
didn’t have time for more ISOs than that
also, I’m kinda surprised min died because afaik I was the only one who was vocal about thinking they were town yesterday?
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was actually gonna reevaluate them in case Marl was right and I was wrong, but I guess NK saves me the trouble
Vote Count
| Accused | Voters | Number |
|---|---|---|
| EVO | Intensify | 1/7 |
| [Not Voting] | PokemonKidRyan, eevee, WindwardAway, clonedcheese, lol, EVO, EliThePsycho, Aelin, GonZ, Tilgarial, an_gorta_pratai, cdecora | 12 |
EOD2 is at 2021-03-29T19:50:00Z.
you could choose not to read it instead lol
just putting it there so you guys can’t say I didn’t do anything overnight, though
back to dinner