if Tilga is scum then they’re doing a very good job of acting towny, but I’m guessing I’ve just been wrong on that because if you guys are going to yeet me first, that puts them in perfect range of getting yeeted tomorrow which is bad if they’re town.
I havent figured out the wagonomics on why Eli keeps getting wagoned and then unwagoned tbh. I keep thinking he’s town but my reasons are pretty weak compared to the reasons I townread other players.
Not to mention the fact that he isn’t active would make him a very good target for an agenda push if he isn’t mafia.
yeah, and I’m worried about that because Eli is a frequent LHF yeet when he’s town.
but if Eli isn’t mafia, who’s mafia?
Okay. Let’s go through our town core and look at why they are towncore? It would be… funny if two of those end up being mafia
Maybe we could look at who has been pushing the eli lynch all this time. It gotta start somewhere
Pasting in my notes because i don’t feel like formatting them. They’re crappy ass notes but if you see flaws in them, please point them out and we’ll discuss them because I have no leads right now.
Wind notes
watcher is positive utility for town
vanilla cop is positive utility for town
2-shot doctor is positive utility for town
ninja sleepwalker is negative utility for town (shows up as PR, yet does absolutely nothing)
nexus is negative utility for town (redirects any non-killing actions to a random target)
cdecora was a neutral PR who would’ve shown up as vanilla.
Aelin was a 1-shot magistrate.
we have three positive and two negative, plus a weird neut and one mafia PR so far.
the doctor cannot heal the nexus, and the investigatives can only prove the nexus indirectly by knowing whether or not they’ve been redirected.
the watcher does not affect the ninja sleepwalker, but the vanilla cop does because they get a “false” PR check (which is correct, but since a ninja sleepwalker essentially does nothing, it’s useless information).
cdecora would’ve shown up falsely as vanilla to the vanilla cop, similarly to how the ninja sleepwalker would show up as a PR that really does nothing.
the magistrate blocks someone from voting and also prevents them from being voted, so they would likely be looking to target someone who’s already widely townread but also on the right track with their reads (look at Aelin’s reads and voting patterns again to see if you can find who her target would’ve been).
the magistrate gets thrown off if they target the nexus, however, because it would end up randomly on someone else.
my guess is that scum has at most one more PR that has an ability that can get thrown off by the nexus, and any remaining scum is/are goons, if all outed claims are true.
if town really has this much negative utility from having a nexus and a ninja sleepwalker, though, mafia might just have goons left
Nexus redirects people off them randomly / neg util if town unless the vanilla cop is scum
Vanilla cop checks for vanilla or PR; gets false result on cdecora
2-shot doctor is town
Watcher is town
Magistrate is scum
Ninja sleepwalker is either a joke or red herring / town neg util if vanilla cop and watcher are town, balances out if one of those roles is scum
EVO/Intensify team? > Aelin was willing to bus EVO D1 but not D2, and more willing to keep EVO in than Intensify > not a plausible scumteam
Intensify didn’t vote the EVO counterwagon because he thought his role was negative utility for town while EVO was VT.
watcher is neg util if there aren’t any other mafia PRs, so there should be one more
vanilla cop can only be scum if ninja sleepwalker is town
Eli is at the very least a ninja, which could be either alignment
D2 operating under the assumption that Aelin didn’t want tied wagons, nor for her scum partner to get voted out:
EVO is clear
lol is clear
Intensify is clear
= 2 wolves between PKR/Tilga/Eli/Gorta (FMPOV, because I know my own alignment is town)
This is where I reached in my notes and then just… stopped:
so 2 wolves in Gorta/EVO/Eli/Tilga
overlapping this with the other conclusion from the Aelin analysis:
2 wolves in Gorta/Eli/Tilga, less likely PKR or EVO
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oh geez I pasted more than i thought i did, that was long
sorry, you don’t have to read themlol