The Math Behind N1 Prince Deaths

Class/Lore/Fanfic
#1

“Prince dead N1 Lul”-Literally everyone who has played ToL and has seen a N1 prince death

The point of this

I get bored easily and It kinda bugs me that prince needs to have night immunity to prevent him from dying early!

The probability of Prince Dying N1 with NK Kill and No interference from healers etc.

Assassin assassinates-2/12=16 %
Assassin 2-4-1s 3/12(1/11?)=25%
Cult Leader Eradicate 3/13=23~%

Assassin assassinates probability explained

The assassin kills one person and Nk Kills-2/15
He knows who the MM is and the king is (2/13)
He most likely won’t kill the convert (2/12)

Assassin 2-4-1

The assassin kills 2 people with NK 3/15
he knows who the MM and king is 3/13
He won’t kill the convert 3/12

CL Eradicate

He kills 2 people with NK 2/15
He knows who is buddy and the king is 2/13

So people it is mathematically likely the Prince will Die N1 atleast 16%-25% chance he will. Not sure if this math is correct if it is not let me know :smiley:

5 Likes
#2

pretty sure your math is accurate for just assasain or CL and prince.

Would note that N1, 241 and Erradicate are both very unlikely to be used.

Also our brain if we actually try to throw the NK into the mix, as well as account for the loong list of extra variables

and of course the NK being added to the things that can kill ya calculations.

Phys, alc, knight, CW(tornados), butler, drunk. merc, king guards.

2 Likes
#3

You also need to account for Prince jails tbh.

And I think the probability would be different for 2-for-1 since you can’t select the same person twice*

*Except one time I did lol

#4

(filler)

#5

added the NK to the mix

#6

There are so many variables:

  • Who Prince jails
  • Healers
  • Knights
  • Drunks/Butlers blocking killers

Prince dying n1 is annoying to BD when it happens, but it’s certainly not gg. It adds variety and forces BD to change strategies instead of going “prince exe tonight because this might be fool”.

#7

It would be 1/14 NK + 1/12 Assasin did N1, regular kills (assuming assasin and NK do not attack king)
(4 not attacks are King, MM, Assasin and convert for Unseen = 16-4 = 12, and for NK are NK and King = 16-2 = 14)
It would be 1/14 NK + 1/12 + 1/11 Assasin did N1, 2 for 1
(NK stats are the same, 1/12= 4 not attacks are King, MM, Assasin and convert for Unseen + 1/11 4 not attacks are King, MM, Assasin and convert for Unseen, and not attacking the 1st Assasin target)

It would be 1/14 NK + 1/12 + 1/11 Cult eradicate N1
The same for cult

#9

It says TOL not FOL

#10

sorry wrong post

#11

carry on XD