actual question: why did you all lynch Marl?? I get that Flush was a jerk but Marl was basically the world’s most obvious villager given meta
Thread seems to focus instead on the cop claim itself and townread them based off that. I’d think that would happen more often if they are town than scum, since scum could be TMI’ing the claim (whether real or not) as coming from town because of having absolute confidence in that coming from v.
Like okay great, you realize that something is happening. The thread isn’t focusing on me and Kat. That doesn’t mean that scum haven’t entered the thread, town could just not want to deal with that mess as they get a headache from looking at it. It’s good at a surface level, but you got to look at the motivations from each of the players avoiding it.
or rather I misspoke
Scum could literally not care about it. You noticed El didn’t talk much about me and hollow and they mentioned that they got a headache from reading the interactions, if they were here earlier before speed subbed out you would have read that as them being village.
This was just me spewing fallacious garbage that I learned for bad reasons from a different game
In their current state (making broad judgements based on what I think wolves would be doing), thread reads are a pseudoscience.
I think there is still a lot to be gained from the concept though (mainly going off of Soul Eater mafia on MafiaSociety and Mafia Academy here).
Fundamentally, evaluating the gamestate as it applies to the players alive should help to eliminate tunnel vision.
It’s objective, and may give a rough idea of where wolves are in thread.
Analyze the potential reasons for why something is the case, then make a judgement based on what players have expressed
FK/HK interaction
Despite taking up a large part of thread and being spicy, has not gained that much attention beyond a few comments that don’t even handle the interaction
Wolves could take advantage of it given HK didn’t like FKFlaw in thinking possibly being that the interaction is impure, probably requires more information to make a solid judgement. Gamestate analysis could be focused on evaluation after flips (similar to VCA but with thread direction instead of votes)
Town might not want to unpackage the interaction given that it’s obnoxious OR wolves might not know what to think regarding the interaction
The fact that there is little discussion regarding the topic is telling specifically because the game has only just started and a large interaction like this could be completely indicative of what the wolf team is up to
Known information:
- Players like Capage have touched the interaction (their post on FK), but haven’t gone all in on them
- HK doesn’t like FK. FK likes HK after the interaction but not initially
- Thread had no solid focus (arguably Capage’s cop claim could sub in here, but really only a few posts came out on it early)
Wolves could take advantage of it given HK didn’t like FK
Other than Capage, players had not addressed their takes on the interaction nor expressed unwillingness to unpack it. It seems like players are completely ignoring it.
Without flips, it is difficult to tell what’s going on there inside of the interactionTown might not want to unpackage the interaction given that it’s obnoxious
Capage handled it, but didn’t handle it holistically because they didn’t have flips yet (reasonably NAI)
If anyone did express annoyance regarding the topic, it wouldn’t be AI at this point. The interaction is obnoxious but it would make sense for wolves to think that engaging with it later rather than immediately give takes would be smartIf going off of d2 info (Capage v, Percy v, Soneji w), Litten vig claim
At that point in thread, lack of engagement with such a large part of thread is completely strange for wolves to do (want to look productive, want to push mislynches)
If HK is a wolf, could make sense given HK ended it with a wolfread on FK and started a push
Otherwise, majority of wolves likely weren’t even seriously into thread by that point (backed up by Soneji flip). It’s a strong point of thread to bite into but the discussion just drifts away immediately once the interaction ended.Takeaways:
- Focus on HK here. Their alignment could be a breaking point for the game
- Lowposters / low contributors look bad (FtF/Speedracer slot mainly)
If we look back at Mafia Academy, gamestate reads made a very worthy substitute for VCA, effectively working to catch the movement of the wolf hydra and a wolf that was just drifting by on the side
It considered the engagement of the wolf hydra with the thread warping and how the thread was treating the lowposting wolf (namely that Dat hadn’t been under serious fire despite their tell being lowposting. Adds greater credence to their tell being valid considering that there is little-no movement against it)
