ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

[eevee]

Im tempted to read into Katze after my discussion with them.

Katze spewed a lot there… but I’m lazy rn.
Remind me to do it closer to eod

[eevee]

Like they spewed a lot, cause I wasn’t attacking them, but theirs play, so they had to defend theirs play in relation to other people.

afair, it would be a really worthwile read.

[Italy]

do you just have this on your clipboard all the time

[sulit]

[eevee]

I know.

@sulit

You do the Katze discussion with me analysis.
I totally need a neutral PoV which is not part of that discussion to look through for association.

There, done.

[sulit]

mmrr

[eevee]

@Italy

do you just have this on your clipboard all the time

[Isaac_Gonzalez]

lmao

[Arete]

@Jane

Votee	Voted by	Votes
Possessed	Anjic89	1/10
JakeTheWolfie	Marshal	1/10
darth_tabor	sulit, Frostwolf103, Wazza, Andrej, Possessed, Arete, katze	7/10
katze	eevee	1/10
Marshal	JakeTheWolfie	1/10
Wazza	SirDerpsAlot, bepwei	2/10
sulit	darth_tabor, PoisonedSquid, clonedcheese, jmwjmw27	4/10
Diggity69	Universal	1/10
Currently abstaining players	Diggity69	1

sulit is basically spewed clear in my opinion from her early-game push on Kat

Darth is flipped town

This points to us having V/V wagons at EoD (Kat’s vote there kinda makes me nervous but not enough to negate all of sulit’s SoD1)

so my first thought here is that since the wagons were V/V, wolves are disproportionately likely to be in the people who didn’t have a strong preference about either wagon, which is {Anjic, Marshal, eevee, Jake, Derps, Bepwei, Uni, Diggity}

Derps is obviously flipped town
eevee can be town for now based on his push on Kat
Marshal is almost always Witch
so {Anjic, Jake, Bepwei, Uni, Diggity} is my immediate solely-VCA-based PoE

[sulit]

@katze

i’ll bite

why do you scumread me, eevee?

@eevee-sama

For nothing.

@katze

understandable have a nice day

@eevee-sama

I’m pretty serious here.

You’ve done nothing worth remembering, most of your posts are hedgy, you avoid making hard stances or hard pushes.

And when you do… you follow someone else, not engage yourself.

So yes, for nothing.

@eevee-sama

Take your read on me:

“Eevee seems simlar to theirs others games, but reading eevee is weird”

It’s not only non-informative.
It’s not only not expressing your stance.

It’s hedgy af and can goes both ways.
You even discredit your opinion by saying “But reading eevee is weird”.

You intentionaly want your posts to be weak, but exist according to motsly truth (most of your opinions are coherent with reality to get towncred), so they wont have impact.

@eevee-sama

So unless Katze starts to make any aggresive posts, not only positioning in thread…

I’m gonna vote Katze.

/shrug

@eevee-sama

I like how there is lack of follow up and any questions for my argumentation on Katze.

@eevee-sama

You even discredit your opinion by saying “But reading eevee is weird”.

because you’re a player i find more difficult to read in most so i’m naturally not very confident in my reads on you

eevee:

(most of your opinions are coherent with reality to get towncred)

i slightly disagree here since i’m verbally townreading top wagons

eevee:

any aggresive posts

i don’t necessarily play ‘aggressively’ on day one ever

@eevee-sama

Yeah imo you are scum who townreads top wagons without your opinion being loud, to not impact the lynch, but so you can later on get towncred for “attempting to defend a townie”, or rather to just not be analyzed as person who pushed a townie.

No town should really doubt theirs own PoV all the time.
If you doubt own Pov, then whose do you trust?

And you pretty much have only very weak opinions all around, trying to undermine own posts.

@eevee-sama

Yeah imo you are scum who townreads top wagons without your opinion being loud, to not impact the lynch

i don’t think i was being quiet about my opinions on arete?

eevee:

No town should really doubt theirs own PoV all the time.

i have little confidence in my early game reads because i have little confident in myself as a player

which… i could explain but it’d probably come off as self-meta and ATE

@katze

it doesn’t make sense… which i guess could be why it’d happen? wifom? idk

katze:

my gut is telling me arete is town for the sole fact that they’re playing exactly how i’d play in the “i’m probably going to die today” scenario as town (see mafia academy, where i was redchecked as town and wrote a wallpost in my first FM game ever which amounted to nothing because neutral fruit vendor )

while i’m pretty sure scum arete is capable of doing this exact thing, in a setup with no day flip altering (right???) it doesn’t make too much sense in my eyes

katze:

i can’t say ive been trying super hard to solve every slot yet

katze:

as for eevee, eevee is playing similarly to how i’ve seen them play in multiple other games

but reading eevee is odd

katze:

but i’m welcome to hear the opposing viewpoint explained to me, because i do have some doubts

katze:

im not good at making charts

katze:

but he’s probably town this time

For example, those are stuff which you added to your posts after expressing your PoV.

ALL OF THAT is weakening your own posts.
All of that means you have doubts in own reads and noone takes it seriousltdue to it.

@eevee-sama

Even if you express opinion, it’s just… weak.

@katze

i’ve already documented my findings

why i think arete shouldn’t be todays lynch

katze:

my gut is telling me arete is town for the sole fact that they’re playing exactly how i’d play in the “i’m probably going to die today” scenario as town (see mafia academy, where i was redchecked as town and wrote a wallpost in my first FM game ever which amounted to nothing because neutral fruit vendor )

while i’m pretty sure scum arete is capable of doing this exact thing, in a setup with no day flip altering (right???) it doesn’t make too much sense in my eyes

katze:

with that said i don’t think scum arete just flops over and lets themselves die

katze:

the fact that it’s been ~43 hours and we’ve basically only talked about 3 people having wolf equity (Marshal/Jake/Arete) and a vast majority of this time has been spent on arete is concerning though

are wolves happy with the threadstate? or have they given up on poor arete

katze:

if arete was mafia wouldn’t their buddies be doing ANYTHING to stop that?

katze:

but i really don’t think mafia is bussing arete on d1

i initially talked to arete like a townread to see how i’d like their responses and i think that slot (while it still has some wolf equity) shouldn’t be todays lynch yet

but i’m welcome to hear the opposing viewpoint explained to me, because i do have some doubts

Even your thoughts on Arete you said were straightforward, ended with doubting own read.

@katze

im not good at making charts

i don’t know how to make vote count charts, what does this have to do with the rest of the post

eevee:

Even your thoughts on Arete you said were straightforward, ended with doubting own read.

because having doubts in someone being absolutely 100% town on day 1 is… scummy?

you think i’m scummy because i’m town leaning people and not town reading , because the way i present myself?

@katze

you think i’m scummy because i’m town leaning people and not town reading , because the way i present myself?

Second one.

Even townleaning people can be done without doubting own reads.

@eevee-sama

Even townleaning people can be done without doubting own reads.

townlean is the conclusion

more specifically, i started off townreading arete before having some doubt, and thinking of possibilities of their actions being scum motivated

so the doubt lowers the TR to a TL, and seeps its way into my posting because i like to explain my thought process if i can

@katze

townlean is the conclusion

more specifically, i started off townreading arete before having some doubt, and thinking of possibilities of their actions being scum motivated

so the doubt lowers the TR to a TL, and seeps its way into my posting because i like to explain my thought process if i can

It looks like towlean is opinion and you have doubts on that townlean.

@katze

in jakes case that’d be true, my TL on jake is mostly gut

but not in aretes case

@katze

in jakes case that’d be true, my TL on jake is mostly gut

but not in aretes case

Let me get this straight.

In Jake’s case you are gutting the town lean,
While in Arete’s case you are town leaning your gut?

@eevee-sama

In Jake’s case you are gutting the town lean,
While in Arete’s case you are town leaning your gut?

i don’t understand this question so i’ll try to explain this

arete: townread at first, but after considering a few things, doubted myself into a townlean
jake: gut induced townlean, hence my post ending with

katze:

but he’s probably town this time

@katze

i don’t understand this question so i’ll try to explain this

As in one case you are doubting the read you made and in other it’s doubt which made your read.

@eevee-sama

EITHER WAY.

You are doubting youself and your reads too much.
Why.

Why afraid of taking hard stance?

@katze

doubt made my read on arete a townlean from a townread

i don’t think doubt influenced my read on jake that much though, i think i better explained my read on jake somewhere

@katze

it’s mostly gut but when i tested his reactions i felt like they were too angry to be scummy

but it is jake we’re talking about…

admittedly this falls under the ‘doubt’ argument too since i fully acknowledge that jakes reaction is probably NAI for him, but coming right after candlelight i don’t think he’d do the exact same thing as scum two games in a row

@katze

eevee is a strong player but their push on me is logical and isn’t sudden (they’ve been shading me a while) so unless i was picked to be a mafia mislynch from the very start of the (in game) day then i don’t see eevee being mafia

[eevee]

That’s not analysis, but at least now I don’t have to dig it.

Thanks

[sulit]

just quoted it they don’t go together

[eevee]

So Sulit.

You are scum.

Someone like me acusses you about having only “mild posts, which specially are made in a way to not have big impact, doubting own opinion”.

You want to deny it to defend self and say “Not true, I had strong opinion about Arete”!

What does it make Arete as?

[Possessed]

@Frostwolf103

Possessed died once for tempted to death tunnel me.

Whoa whoa whoa, you killed me on that assumption. I wasn’t going to do it YET.

[sulit]

Town probably.

[eevee]

Your posts have weirdle matched pictures and names with content.

In many cases it was other person saying that. Wtf

[sulit]

Yeah it’s screwed up because of quotes inside of quotes

[sulit]

Kat looks like they’re trying to get Arete to advocate for them

which makes sense because it’s something kat as scum would do subconciously

[eevee]

And Jake part?

[Frostwolf103]

And I was correct on that assumption, since you mentioned you’re going to attack me N2 at the end of the game.

Back at our game!