ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

[PoisonedSquid]

I’m a math wizard shhh

[Italy]

what are the exact chances of a random lynch flipping scum, if we factor out people we believe can’t be scum

[PoisonedSquid]

@PoisonedSquid

Arete/Marshal/Eevee/Cheese

Here we go, four way thunderdome

That should make percentages better

[JakeTheWolfie]

0%, as everyone is town

[Frostwolf103]

Good job.

[Arete]

Diggity/Isaac since that slot was totally null to me

[Arete]

We already have a thunderdome between me and Marshal, and that means there’s room for eevee and Cheese to potentially both be real

[sulit]

I feel like

aaa

I don’t know

cri

[sulit]

I feel like just yeeting out of the whole marshal arete thing and lynching someone else

[Possessed]

More than potentially, its more than likely they both are. Odds of both you and Marshal being town are MUCH lower.

[Possessed]

The ONLY scenario that both Marshal and Arete flip town is:

1. Arete was witched.
2. Marshal was pranked, implying Mafia has a prankster (and according to Bepwei they do).
3. Bepwei is Mafia.

[Arete]

That would also require the Mafia randomly giving him Lookout feedback for no reason

[Possessed]

So in my eyes, the lynch is only between Marshal/Arete/Bepwei. Nothing else.

[PoisonedSquid]

So you both trust Eevee and Cheese with their claims despite them being in a group where one’s guaranteed scum?

[Possessed]

@Jane

Prankster

Mafia Deception

You are the Prankster, who once filled his days pranking others with elaborate jokes. One time, you managed to make somebody believe that his entire family was murdered. Geez, the look on his face when you told him he was pranked!

Every night you can choose to target 1 player.
Your target’s real night results will be replaced with a false night result of your choosing.
The effect you choose will not actually be done; For example, an investigator pranked into thinking he was roleblocked will still receive night results with clues as to which role his target was. However, he will not know for sure if he slept peacefully.
If you are controlled by a witch, you will make your target think they “slept peacefully.”
You can communicate with your allies for as long as they are alive.

Your allies are [x] the [role], and [x] the [role].

You win with the Mafia
You win with Witches
You must kill the Town
You must kill Arsonists
You must kill Serial Killers

Bolded confirms that assumption, Arete. Nothing in Marshals D1 ISO would indicate a Lookout. So yeah…Arete v Marshal.

[Possessed]

How is one guaranteed scum?

[Arete]

They’re in a group of 4 people with 1 scum guaranteed but that group has a smaller group of 2 people with 1 scum guaranteed so them being in the 4 person group doesn’t make a difference

[PoisonedSquid]

Eevee, Arete, Cheese, and Marshal all claimed a class that could be considered RT. Even if we place one of the TI claims in the TI spot, there’s still only two RT spaces left. One of them doesn’t fit

[PoisonedSquid]

If I’m thinking too hard about this, let me know, but this is giving me the odd chest feeling again

[Frostwolf103]

@sulit

I feel like just yeeting out of the whole marshal arete thing and lynching someone else

Only if Arete is absolutely necessary, can you take a look on Eevee/Cheese we’ve talked so far?

@Possessed

The ONLY scenario that both Marshal and Arete flip town is:

1. Arete was witched.
2. Marshal was pranked, implying Mafia has a prankster (and according to Bepwei they do).
3. Bepwei is Mafia.

@Possessed

So in my eyes, the lynch is only between Marshal/Arete/Bepwei. Nothing else.

@PoisonedSquid

So you both trust Eevee and Cheese with their claims despite them being in a group where one’s guaranteed scum?

It’s like me and Possessed have different lynch priority.