ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 4:59pm

Oh thanks

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 4:59pm

Wait its all bolded FeelsBad

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:00pm

Just…read the last part.

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:03pm

So citizen had a 1 in 5 chance of spawning and the other roles had a 1 in 10 each, or 4 in 5 overall.

If citizen randed before the third RT slot was rolled, for the remaining rolls, the non-citizen roles each had a 1 in 8 chance of spawning for the remaining 1-2 RT rolls.

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:04pm

Sounds about right.

bepwei · February 2, 2020, 5:04pm

So now we are between n.1 and Jake?

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:05pm

So yes, there’s a higher chance of scum being 2 in Arete/Cheese/N.1/Eevee, but its all chance.

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:05pm

It also means 1 of Eevee/Arete is guaranteed legitimate.

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:07pm

Technically. I don’t know how serious the votes on each are. Mine isn’t very serious.

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:08pm

Only double the chance of another singular role.
So 1 in 5 compared to 1 in 10 each / 4 in 5 put together

Not extremely significant. 64 in 125 chance (slightly over half) that no RT spawned, assuming true randomness.

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:08pm

*that no citizen spawned as RT

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:20pm

That actually increased to 16/25 = 64% since we know darth was escort
If you believe I’m medium, then it would be 4/5 = 80% that no citizen spawned as RT.

Frostwolf103 · February 2, 2020, 5:24pm

With cheese flipping most likely scum, we can focus on the citizens/no claimed

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:28pm

so you scumread jake more than cheese atm?

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:28pm

And what if its Arete or Eevee? Or we’ve been duped by N.1? Eevee has a point, and right now Witch has a few targets to decide who to redirect. Us lynching could…omg wait.

What are the odds Andrej/Italy slot is hardcore TRing Arete because they Witched them and found their role?

Frostwolf103 · February 2, 2020, 5:29pm

Cheese is cornered unless he can prove he is town.

Arete · February 2, 2020, 5:29pm

zero, we’ve been through this already, Witch doesn’t find out roles in this set-up

N.1 · February 2, 2020, 5:30pm

Then why are you voting for Jake instead of cheese

Possessed · February 2, 2020, 5:33pm

Literally disregard this. I heard someone mention Witch learns roles but that’s not true.

sulit · February 2, 2020, 5:34pm

When everyone completely abandons reads and just discusses what ifs and percentages