ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

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#5168

Well then it seems to me that eevee/cloned/arete is either T/T/S, S/S/T, S/T/T, or S/T/S.
If no PR is hiding, it cannot be S/S/S or T/T/T.
Eevee would be throwing in any case where he is town and cloned is scum unless cloned is consort which is a very low likelihood of there both being consort and consort targeting town PR n1, so I would denounce both T/S/S and T/S/T as impossible.

#5169

What do you mean?

#5170

In both scenarios, Eevee cannot be town, this also means he cannot be prankster if he is Mafia, heā€™s no SK or Witch either. So heā€™s either that other random mafia or Mafia Support slot

That also means ClonedCheese is Town in both of scenarios.

But you give them as impossible? So itā€™s the opposite?

#5171

While Arete is NAI.

#5172

Ah ok, so 2 out 6 scenarios is removed from PoE

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#5173

Unless cloned is starting consort or eevee is throwing, the case in which eevee is town and cloned is scum is not possible. Thatā€™s all I was trying to say with that particular remark.

#5174

If he got retrained then he wouldnā€™t able to roleblock Eevee.

#5175

Actually 4 out of 10, as S/S/S is not possible unless a PR is hiding, and T/T/T is not possible period based on the rolelist.

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#5176

Thatā€™s why I said starting and not retrained.

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#5177

*4 out of 8

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#5178

And if you apply Occamā€™s Razor, Eevee is town in this due 3 times heā€™s scum and 1 time heā€™s town.

Cheese is scum while 3 times town and 1 time scum.

#5179

Arete is a mystery.

Again.

Guess I already explained it myself.

#5180

Percantage-wise, Eevee is 75% Scum and 25% Town
Cheese is 75% town and 25% scum
Arete is 50/50.

My vote on Cheese stand corrected with Occamā€™s Razor.

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#5181

It would be still possible.

#5182

Eevee doesnā€™t throw, so yes technically possible but extremely unlikely.

#5183

Definitely nowhere near as plausible as the other four options.

#5184

/vote Jake

Agree here :sheep:

#5185

Todayā€™s the day I painstakingly ISO everyone and come up with the same conclusions I previously had because Iā€™m biased.

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#5186

Stop with the percentages though, all they do is skew reasoning. Yes Eevee has a 25 percent chance of being town, yes cheese has a 75 percent chance of being town, yes someone randomly picked in the game has a 79 percent chance of being town. Does that automatically mean theyā€™re town or scum? Hell no. This doesnā€™t help us at all.

#5187

Why would Eevee be throwing if cheese is scum?