ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

Forum Matches Completed
#5388

I’m not going to respond to such a blatantly rhetorical question.

#5389

oh i forgot sulit

#5390

I’m still going to leave it as a possibility
assuming something with a 20% chance won’t come true and playing like it won’t be can prove to be bad for town

#5391

And one of those 5 spots can roll Citizen.

#5392

Ok? There are 3 RT, 3 Non-T, which means 6 claims

#5393

why is that very unlikely

#5394

confused Arete noises

#5395

In terms of what has already happened, it might not be as unlikely
My analysis was purely from a role rand odds perspectiv

#5396

One of those RT spots are taken.

By the dead escort. Tabor.

#5397

first was math, second was gut. You’re right they’re in conflict but they were different kinds of analyses

#5398

FMPoV I think that scum!Cheese would only claim Escort in the first place if he were actually Consort so saying that it’s unlikely for him to be Consort feels like weird logic

#5399

you’re right. That logic was bad. If cloned is scum, he’s consort.
So only T/T/T and S/S/S are eliminated.

#5400

Hot take:

Poisoned is vig who shot bep and some mystery healer healed them

#5401

It could be our doc claim, it could be someone else.

#5402

hot take: you posting these is scum motivated in an attempt to increase the number of considered scenarios

2 Likes
#5403

Cool story bro

#5404

The discounting consort thing was purely analyzing the chances that one thing randed over another. It did not take into account cloned’s escort’s claim. That was bad

#5405

Thanks arete

#5406

I don’t think anyone seriously considers them

#5407

So you’re saying that in the event that I’m right, you’re going to still call me a bad player?