ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

@SirDerpsAlot

here you go

my thoughs on the situation of the claim

Arete do you think your claim should clear you if so why

i claim marshal :^)

1 Like

master reader katze at it again

1 Like

sulit/you/Derps/Bepwei/Cheese/Darth/eevee

yes, I just checked

if someone rolled marshal you have to visit marshal n1 :^)

also because when arete flips wolf their scumbuds are gonna try to kill me

no

but I also think weā€™ll have inevitably done a massclaim by like D3 and there are good odds itā€™ll clear me then by pure numbers

yeah sure letā€™s wait until d3 to decide your slot :unamused:

I knew you were scum after 2 posts ez cash

So it dosent confirm you, why did you claim

because I was at L minus 3 and panicked

ā€œpanickedā€

bro you were calm as shit

I donā€™t belive you

on one hand sheriff is an easy fake claim

on the other hand citizen exists and over a third of us are citizens

I want to know what you expected to gain from claiming arete

in the hotseat i donā€™t think scum!Arete would claim citizen for the sole reason that it gives town little incentive to stop the push, while sheriff is risking potentially our only TI

This feels like a townslip. Coolio.

Are you on crack

You donā€™t even understand who the fuck youā€™re dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and Iā€™ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that Iā€™ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and itā€™s led me to literal hundreds of wins.

Why do I think Arete is scum? I donā€™t deign to think about Arete myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether arete is scum. I donā€™t need to think about Arete, because my algorithm has determined that Arete is scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. Weā€™re talking about a mere 13% chance that Arete is a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Areteā€™s only defense, in other words, is that Arete is so naturally scummy that Arete is an outlier.

Whether youā€™re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics ā€“ you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides youā€™re scum, itā€™s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means youā€™re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, Iā€™m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if thereā€™s a small chance you might be town, thereā€™s not even a remote chance that youā€™re good.

@Arete

3 Likes