ToS Mafia - Day 8 - (3/19) [Town wins!]

[Frostwolf103]

A counterclaim is a huge deal, especially on last random town slot, there is no room for both.

[DatBird]

One he took that back and two squid I’ll get you the quotes

[DatBird]

I’ll get it in ten as I’m getting ready

[Possessed]

At this point, I’m almost certain the only guaranteed scum is cloned. I also want SK more.

Is there a chance Trifecta pops SK over Dat?

[Frostwolf103]

Pretty much, we should only vote Cloned to lynch when we’re too uncertain to lynch from SK PoE and we will only lose one townie overnight.

Hmm…

[Frostwolf103]

The con side is, we’re no close to finding the SK.

[Possessed]

If somehow Dat flips town, we HAVE to get scum tomorrow. I think were still in a good position regardless of the lynch today.

[eevee]

Regardless, if Cheese is not mafia, he can roleblock mafia, but can’t roleblock sk.

[Possessed]

Limiting SK PoE is fine. We lynch in PoE, 3 remain and Cloned should be able to limit another potential SK tonight.

[Frostwolf103]

That is rich coming from you, you know Eevee?

[eevee]

Rich?

[Frostwolf103]

@eevee-sama

Regardless, if Cheese is not mafia, he can roleblock mafia, but can’t roleblock sk.

Like, why would you mention that as sheriff claim? :^)

[eevee]

…

…

…

…

You know what?
I suddenly regret appearing here.

[Possessed]

Is he still claiming Sheriff?

[Frostwolf103]

No no, it’s ok to be ashamed although can you explain?

[Trifecta]

Probably not

[eevee]

Definetly not

[Frostwolf103]

https://images.app.goo.gl/NQGdxwCjL1rKLihGA

[eevee]

Frost… that’s my line after you was still thinking I’m sheriff.

[DatBird]

All eevee reads throughout the game

@DatBird

Eevee- honestly his rt comes from a smart place but im gonna keep in small townlean for now. And then Cloned and Jmw who I dont know meta and honestly other than clones weird i did an action thing this Beginning of Day was mainly forgettable from skim

For me that leaves main poe of JMW/Clone/Eevee/Anjc/Wazza/Frist
with a slight Possessed as a final one but i really doubt that

This was my first read. I read him as slightly town for his rts, but still had him in poe as I had the rest of the game kinda solved

@DatBird

VCA wise Id say Eevee is prob not group scum as honestly his push was pretty solid, so id say cit or sk but if he was indeed rbed N1 that kinda locks him good. If we go by the facts that the prs seem solid enough Jmw, Wazza, Frost, Possessed, and Anjic is prob my poe which is five exactly: gamesolve.

I then said he couldnt be sk which is also true, but took him out due to the Katze vote.

@DatBird

We have Eevee as either cit or witch,

Still think hes only good or witch

@DatBird

Yeah ok. Then that logic pretty much removes cheese from my poe and makes it likely ur witch or cit and thats it

@DatBird

Datbird Game solve atm
The PR 6 seems fine
Isaac, Italy, and Uni seem fine by meta
Eevee is witch or cit
Possessed is like my highest gut read non meta wise and non already taken out
That leaves
Anji, Frost, Wazza, jmw. To make a five add in Possessed/Eevee

Some bad reads in here but still same opinion

@DatBird

Eevee witch Wazza sk

@DatBird

Eevee i have pinned to be witch or cit. Italy i have pinned to be like witch, cit, or mafia

@DatBird

I still think u have witch equity as i said day 3

@DatBird

so 5 town out of that list:
Datbird - Citizen
Isaac_Gonzalez - Citizen
Frostwolf103 - Citizen
Possessed - Citizen
Anjic89 - Citizen

3 scum out of that list
Eevee - witch
Italy - maf
jmwjmw27 - sk

@DatBird

SK poe: I guess me and Frost, JMW if cheese deconfirmed
Mafia po3: I guess me, Frost, Eevee, Cheese unless he gets confirmed, JMW if he gets deconfirmed

@DatBird

At this point. I think eevee is pushing for a mislynch on cheese, who has been confirmed to many times. Eevee has softed two different pr claims before he got to this one. He tried this lynch days prior but dropped it. I think eevee is mafia as he was rbed when sk killed. His Katze push could have been a bus, as that’s what a lot of people cleared him of

@DatBird

ok well got my final thoughts into log form. Imma go with my gut and vote the scummiest person in game
/vote Eevee
think this death will solve a lot, but I dont see any following or support with me, so I guess I die. GG yall

@DatBird

I play mainly by gut and my gut feels this is right. I will get called dumb or bad for my play especially relying on gut, but its my main tool and thats how i usually hunt scum with a good sucess rate. Hey like I could be wrong, but who knows.

@DatBird

Well one yesterday I was between you and Italy for witch, I knew Italy was evil based on how his reaction day 4 was so I slotted him as mafia. That left SK and Witch. At the time I felt you only fit in Witch as SK would be impossible as Cloned would be dead. So that slots you into witch. Now that witch is dead, I slot you into mafia again as you still cant be SK, and I feel like you have the power to deepwolf and push Katze. While doing 1 of the four options. One being no kill and getting away with it. Thats something I wouldnt expect from a newer to mid level play so I would cut almost the rest of the game except you, squid, and possessed. Squid is vig with no contests so it prob aint her. Possessed is my strongest town read other than Isaac. Isaac on the other hand is like the only other person capable of no kill cause he would be the one to not submit it. POE is u and Isaac at that point if we go by no kill analysis. If we go by the fact you attacked SK well then you would prob be pushing them. Well u voted two different people today, so I wouldnt expect this option. The next option is Sulit healed your target. Could be why you wanted Cloned out at first. And the final option is that its JMW cause he was blocked.

Keep in mind these four rules when you consider why mafia didnt kill people

DatBird:

• Mafia No Killed
• Mafia killed SK and failed
• Mafia killed Cloned and was healed
• Mafia was Rbed by Cloned

Mafia poe is Eevee, JMW, Isaac. I trust the other two more than you

@DatBird

I went through the list of people alive, removed Squid due to no cc. Removed Possessed cause I heavily tr them. You, JMW, Isaac, and Cloned after talking with squid were still in. All could fit. That leaves me and Frost. I aint evil, and Frost. Well I guess Frost could be evil. It just he seemed fine D4 onward. D3 I wanted him dead. So I took my poe of four with maybe Frost did analysis on who would no kill, and ended up with you and the meta read of Isaac. So I guess I shouldnt have removed Frost and Cloned. when I originally made the list. Thats my poe

Frost, Cloned, Eevee, JMW, Isaac

@DatBird

If I had to rate these five from what my gut feels on them, least likely to be town, to most likely

Eevee, Cloned, JMW, Frost, Isaac

Tldr: started game with small tr for eevee but recognized he was still in poe as there was a lot more people I trusted more than him. Went on to figure he wasnt SK, but still had witch equity. I later added mafia equity as not only witch died, but knowing eevee I felt he would be able to bus his teammates just fine. As I feel like him Hes done the same reaction test 3 times at this point, iirc one time as another rber, one time as a lookout, and most recently as a sheriff. Two times to try and pressure cheese and once on Arete. I also have my kill analysis for the mafia kill where I think Eevee as a player might not kill at night to put fear on others especially with a rber alive as u can try and pin the rber and the rb victim. His general tone and my gut feeling on him hasnt been the best but I guess I shouldnt expect more tone wise. In the end I think its him as one of the two last scum. That’s my case