Umineko FM - Game Over - Mafia Wins

I’m not unvoting Cattail till i get a claim for real this time.

In a world with

Shortcake/Rue/You/SDA/Conduit/Zone

having the entire scumteam in it

Then tomorrow we have a potentially just like, ggs it’s over game

and I don’t want to eliminate that possibility

and even if the informations are going agaisnt them

and the more I think about it the more it makes sense, it still makes way more sense to wait a night to confirm that that possibility is true/false and so we have a way better approach coming into tomorrow if you know what i mean

Hippo

I can assure you that if they are both town then that means claiming is 100% -EV and we should never do it

I really think theryre W/W and youre being played (potentially scum with them but i dont think so)

And depending on what happens tomorrow, I might just 100% agree with you

or your world views may be flipped

which is why I’m wanting to skip

1 Like

I don’t know which of us is in the right, that’s true

And I’d feel safer just like, knowing which is exactly right tomorrow, rather than 50-50ing tonight

Do we really have a retributionist, a mason pair, and a “role + backup role” (basically another mason but stronger) in the same setup? No way. Thats insanely townsided.

We have seen 0 scum role flip so far

Which is why I’m willing to like, let it happen

I can’t justify unvoting them untill I get a hardclaim tbh. If you’re scared of mafia blocking them if they claim theyre gonna block them anyway now you’ve said it could totally clear them so theres 0 downside to claiming.

I don’t want to talk it about it furthermore because like, just listen, I’m not afraid of them getting roleblocked, I’m afraid of something else to be frank

Them claiming is 100% -EV

If they’r telling the truth than possibly, but everything points to them lying.

  1. Greenchecked Santa and Greenchecker stil alive
  2. Done nothing towny or of note at all in thread
  3. Been on every ML wagon
  4. Claim incfredibly powerful role with a retributionist claim (Waz) and a dead mason pair (Orange and Sulit)
  5. POE wise I cant see who else it can be. Rue knew Zone was a killer, Zone killed Occult, Rue says Strawberry cant kill. Rue and Strawberry were both on obvious scum wagon in Conduit. I’m town. You’ve had a lot of townie reactions (although you may just be better than I’m giving you credit for, who knows). Derps could well be mafia tbh. Wazza is still possible mafia too, esp as Retri claim and whatever Santa/Cattail claim is seems to be odds powerwise. But if I assume Santa and Cattail are town I literally can’t see any teams at all. None of them make sense.

Like I’m trying to name a 3 or 4 man scumteam which makes sense and doesnt include santa and cattail and I cant think of any

Conduit/Wazza/Derps/???

I agree

but

okay

I don’t think if we don’t lynch we just get endgamed

so I’m on the team of

“we wait and see, their claim may be self-resolving~ish and thus saves us from a ML”


Conduit/Derps/Shortcake/Rue also for the scumteam

Rue/Shortcake/Derps/Conduit doesnt make much sense

Anything with Derps/Conduit isn’t gonna make much sense

yeah this seems to be the scumteam being proposed by the hood but i dont see it. Why did Rue and Shortcake push Conduit close to death? How did Rue know Zone was a killer? It doesn’t add up.

I agree

I still have that ounce of doubt that

if it’s Cattail/Santa town

we just win tomorrow

Sure it is techincally possible if you jump through a bunch of loop holes but it seems much more likely Santa said “I’m not gonna live long, Cattail claim to have a greencheck on me and ill claim to have 2bp, this will give us both a claim and justify me surviving till end game”.