uh, jinx-ish?
D2 lynches were basically always V/V/V
I’m going to go re-read EoD2
At this point Marshal is pushing the narrative that Ash/Merc is TvS
notably he is voting Ash over Merc
presumably he has a reason for voting Ash
Based on flips + people I think are clear possible distributions of wolves across Merc/Ash/Htm are 2/1/0, 1/2/0, 0/2/1, 1/1/1 (I think, I may have missed one)
I think the worlds in which Ash has two wolf votes on him are much more likely because Marshal, not knowing Ash (who was a bit underwhelming early game, he got much more whelming yesterday, this is totally a legitimate word fight me) would not normally have had a reason to be pushing Ash over Merc here
but in Bepwei W worlds he could’ve been like “we want Ash out, he’s really good”
confirmation bias is fun but I don’t think this is wrong
unfortunately Jake was the only person in my PoE who was around at EoD2
Bit of a D3 only spew mini wallpost.
Actually I'm too lazy to make a wallpost so I just quoted a bunch of stuff
Actually marshal is 24 hours ahead, but still.
My takeaways:
I think that marshal’s push on ari/wazza is designed to be easily backed off of (“I mean, he did look pretty scummy right?”), not the sort of thing that looks like a bus.
He is totally unprompted, and chooses ari to push to death. So imo, this clears wazza
Also, he never once brings up kyle, except to say that he “could see it” when I propose a scumteam that includes one of kyle/bep
I think it is a scum with extreme self-control to never even throw a bit of shade once on a person who would be so easy to narrate as scum.
bep, he seems to have an inconsistant read on. Not sure how this spews, but
So I think that marshal spews wazza town and kyle scum.
/vote Kyle20
I haven’t paid enough attention to Bepwei to make an accurate read to be honest. I think what you’re saying about the voting is logical but I don’t think they’re a wolf personally.
Hm, why not? If Bepwei is town, who do you think the wolves are?
I feel like all of my reads have been wrong so far so I don’t know. I am thinking about it though
Can I ask why you asked me specifically? It appears you think I could be a wolf so I’m not sure why you’d consider my opinion here
I do
Because I’m trying to figure out if you actually are or not
So far what I understand today is that
Arete sus of Jake, Wazza, Kyle, Bepwei
Wazza sus of Arete, Kyle, Bepwei, Squid?
Squid sus of Arete (not sure, they might have been sarcastic here and I don’t read them well?)
Jake sus of Arete, Bepwei
does this seem correct?
Ash sus of me as well
I think that’s right but I want to know what your thoughts are, not theirs
I find it can help reading people if you know what they are thinking. Please give me a minute
I think if bepwei is a villager, then Jake, and Squid are a good choice for scum. I didn’t think they were scumbuddies day one though as Jake was pretty hard pushing emotionally on Squid and vice-versa so maybe that’s a bad read
In that case maybe it’s Arete and Jake and they are playing against eachother as some sort of play to go deeptown on the rest of the players is one of them flips scum, and if the push on Bepwei succeeds they would both be alive to play it out somehow (This is something I want to think could happen but it seems pretty bigbrain)
Looking just at the votes, it seems like Marshal could have saved themself from a lynch by voting for Bepwei but they didn’t, Bepwei appeared to be voting very similarly to Marshal as well D1 and D2 so they could be a likely candidate if Marshal wanted to instead bus themselves. In that case I feel like the team could be Bepwei, and someone who voted for marshal, so either Squid or Jake.
The remaining things I think I can read lead me to believe that Ash and Wazza are likely town and the rest are people I’d be okay with lynching.
My PoE would leave me with Jake, Bepwei, Arete, Squid
However I’m usually wrong with literally all of my reads so maybe it’s just Ash and Wazza scum team
Right now, I’m sus on Bepwei, that’s why I’m voting them right now
my bad, I missed that one, however it doesn’t affect my reads