If Arete somehow isn’t scum I think Alice is scum. She’s acting very reserved and cautious this game, which made me read her as JOAT yesterday before the DatBird fiasco.
I’m townreading her based on her recklessness in that hammer: recklessness is generally towny and I believe wolf!hja would be too scared to hammer there.
The only thing scaring me about hja is her inactivity for the first half of Day 1 which makes me cautious in regards to maybe she decided to say ‘fuck it imma try and be active as wolf’ and decided to randomly push you.
If you’re town here then you’re misclearing someone. If the game-state doesn’t make sense it’s usually due to your reads being wrong and it’s better to re-read the thread and re-evaluate everyone.
Merc not self-pres’ing onto James was sketchy as hell, but I don’t ever think Dat would ever change his target after softing as that’s pretty disastrous for town if James is a wolf.
Hmm, this is probably as I’ve been shifting my playstyle since LotR to a more reserved one to prevent me from getting into too heated situations. I did the same thing in PyMM where I didn’t bother pushing Sulit or Maxi much and just spent much of the time analyzing posts and whatnot.
I thought that it looked like them returning to their annoying town playstyle but they just hammered Merc because Dat was repeatedly asking them to do it, so not really that reckless.
It’s a little quiet so I’ll see if I can get some more low-poster insight.
@Red_Sea thoughts on Arete and James post-Merc lynch?
Right, so the biggest thing I’m struggling to understand is why Merc didn’t self-pres onto James. Like, if we assume that your mechanical clear on James via Datbird’s crumb is correct, then that means that W!Merc … chose not to even try to get the lynch onto a townie, when they were tied without her voting him? I’m legitimately struggling to understand how that makes sense as a thought process. Even if we go with Luxy’s ‘she was trying to frame him’ theory, that’s still letting herself get lynched for a mislynch that might or might not even happen, which is … worse than a 1-1 trade, not that a 1-1 trade would be a good idea in the first place.
With that being said, here’s why I’m clearing the people that I’m clearing:
2. Luxy - He was already one of my top townreads, and as a consensus townread he’d have literally no reason to need to bus Merc there, even putting aside how a D1 bus would have been a terrible strategy. Basically treat him like an IC.
5. SetToBlow - Merc was pushing him more than anyone else yesterday, and I don’t think she busses D1 in this set-up. Her vote there seems more like opportunistic scum than bandwagoning for towncred.
6. James - Cleared by Dat’s JK soft, I guess?
7. Monokuma/Alice - Alice has come in and cleared two people who otherwise she could have gotten (in-this-scenario-mis-)lynched with relative ease (Set and James). It would have been fairly straightforward for her to keep the lynch on Set rather than CFDing onto her wolfmate, and given that no one else picked up on Dat’s soft W!Alice has no motivation to remove a potential mislynch target by pointing it out. The push on Hja doesn’t feel like it comes from W!Alice as Hja is difficult to mislynch for meta reasons and I’d expect a wolf-motivated push to be on a target who actually has a chance of being mislynched. Overall, I see a strong lack of the opportunism that Alice normally displays as scum.
9. H_Hja - Alice is probably going to be annoyed at me for saying this but I’m basically willing to clear her for meta reasons alone. Even ignoring activity reads, Alice commented at some point somewhere that Hja’s wolftell these days is not being able to have original thoughts, and ‘I’m going to fake scumread Alice as a reaction test to see if she starts OMGUSing me’ is … definitely an original thought…
Literally the only person left after that from my point of view is RedSea, who … could theoretically be Merc’s wolfmate, there’s nothing about that that’s contradictory as far as I can tell, but that still doesn’t explain James, like, that’s the part of this that doesn’t make sense, in any scenario where James is town Merc chose to completely ignore the super easy push that had tied votes with her and let herself get lynched, and that doesn’t make sense, but at the same time Alice isn’t wrong that Dat crumbed a JK on James.
Like, I’m seriously at the point where I’m trying to come up with reasons why Dat would soft a JK on one person and then target another, because in situations where James isn’t scum the votes yesterday fundamentally don’t make sense.
I guess it’s theoretically possible that Dat was trying to out-WifoM the scumteam by hoping that they would no-action in an attempt to frame James, while in fact he did something other than RBing him?? Or he decided overnight that he was confident enough in his scumread on someone else that he could safely jailkeep them and it didn’t matter what he’d softed because he thought his new target was likely enough scum that he expected to live through the night and clarify in the morning??
But it’s not like these are good theories, I’m just trying to figure out how a world where James is V even makes sense.
Will change my vote iff someone can come up with a remotely sensible explanation for Merc just leaving his wagon completely alone.
After my reaction test and her associating of us already made her scum in my eyes by halfway thru day 1
That still doesn’t explain why W!Alice would clear James, or conversely why she’d push Hja when she’s never going to manage to get her mislynched.
In the world where Alice is scum, why do you think she pushed the Merc wagon over the James one yesterday?
But the reason scum don’t want to look like they’re sheeping is so they don’t get scumread, and getting lynched has all the harms of getting scumread plus absolute confirmation that she was in fact scum.