[VFM] Elf Gold Rush - Game Over. Humans Win!

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#6824

simplest-brain solve is zone/cloned/january
zone i think kept up a decent appearance until halfway through yesterday and today i really have doubts on him (and marl wanted him out)
cloned i keep waffling on but honestly everything he’s done has been objectively wolfy, he can be objectively wolfy as town but this is supposed to be a simple solve (marl also wanted him out)
january is the most obvtowny obvtown but he’s actually also done things that were objectively wolfy, so if i shut my brain off and only vote those who are actively doing scummy things, he fits the bill anyway (but my brain isn’t as smooth as i wish it were so i don’t really want to vote january)

on the other hand there’s nothing really clearing min except for marl’s attempt to save them
there’s nothing clearing for vulgard either except for marl not wanting to tinfoil vul until f3
and i’m still going to treat squirrel like an IC because i see no reason why i shouldn’t believe his claim, and he hasn’t done anything that’s been objectively wolfy (even if nuclear might have)

#6825

I unfortunately really am town, though! If you’re town, you need to work with me instead of working against me and my top townread.

#6826

has it ever occurred to you there’s a nonzero chance that vulgard and i aren’t the same alignment?

#6827

I need to backread January, actually. I don’t think I’ve ever done this since I first shelved him as town.

#6828

Wait, so you’re saying he hasn’t pushed you all game? Woah, you’re right. This is a stupid reason to scumread cloned.

Well, either town dies because town MLs me, or town dies because Marl misread City in the event that Windward/City are W/W.

Either way, town losing was already inevitable the moment Marl said the game is lost if Zone/cloned has 1 V in it.

Though, before I go down, I’d like to at least bring 1 scum down with me.

#6829

ok i’ll just throw some thoughts at the wall and do some hypothetical worldbuilding here

if i assume vulgard is telling the truth and i also assume zone is telling the truth
that leaves january/min/cloned as the scumteam
does that make sense as a scumteam?

if i assume that either vulgard or zone is lying, they get added back into the possible scumteams and i would suspect that one of min/cloned is not a wolf

but that still leaves january in all of the scumteams which is weird

what i’m trying to look for, since individual reads aren’t really working out so well right now, is what team composition actually makes sense here, and i suspect we overlooked something huge.

#6830

I was actually going to do this later today or tomorrow. It’s historically been a decent way of determining who’s a wolf.

#6831

he’s been pushing me and voting me here and there, but he never keeps his vote on me and then he goes for someone else even after making one of those “why does anyone ever think wind is town, she’s so scummy” posts
and if i’ve been his top scumread since idk, D2 or so, i don’t know why he hasn’t been gunning for my misyeet. he went for marl instead because there was a lot more attention there yesterday, and that’s what i think is opportunistic.
he’s been very inconsistent in his pushes which is what i thought was scummy
then i thought waffling on reads was towny
but at this point when he’s had a scumread on at least half the players in the game at some point and doesn’t even bother to rethink his reads when people flip town, it’s not really reassuring

I mean i’m not at all an optimist, i’m a realist, and realism says this game is absolutely lost already because we have a discordant town and probably a powerwolf or two, and i’ve just been loud and wrong which doesn’t help. so i really just wanted to vote noelim and sit back and not participate in the discussion more, and yet here i am because i don’t know how to shut up.

#6832

If that were to happen, then whoever is scum is probably partnered with min.

It’s never January, and Squirrel is somehow not in this POE.

#6833

ok, what are your thoughts on why it’s never january?

#6834

I was looking for my own post to quote it but i can’t find it right now. oh well.
I said i’m treating squirrel as an IC and they’re off the table.

#6835

idk, Zone, I remember you pushing pigeon, clownzu, and Marl, and all three of them flipped town. I don’t understand how that’s any worse than how my pushes have flipped this game.

#6836

EBWOP: how that’s any better

i’m getting scumread primarily for having incorrect pushes
but so have you

#6837

the fact that January did not die before Eli is actually scarily concerning

#6838

To quote yourself:

#6839

true
but does cloned vote the person he is scumreading most in the moment?
i’m used to him just death tunnelling the same player the entire day when he’s town, but maybe he’s trying to change his playstyle. idk. i know that because i’m the recipient of his death tunnel in every single game where we’re T/T.

#6840

I have a reason that is so powerful that is can contest Marl & Vul’s meta read on City; experience.

I have seen people like January, and those people were always town whenever they are spamming, irritating, and confident. It’s essentially like reading a Seth that is more reasonable.

#6841

it’s just that when i looked at the vote count where there were four votes on him, it was the unofficial vc and between two of arete’s. the ones i am referencing are:

first official vc was just me on cloned
unofficial vc was me, zone, min and city on cloned (i don’t remember if min or city voted first)
second official vc was just min and city on cloned

so the progression was

  • i voted cloned
  • first official vc
  • zone voted cloned
  • min and city voted cloned
  • unofficial vc
  • zone and i unvoted
  • second official vc

I was thinking villagers would lead the wagon on v!cloned and wolves would follow, but it’s also possible that wolves lead the wagon on w!cloned and villagers follow, and wolves unvote because they didn’t intend to bus.

I know it incriminates me because I was the first to vote cloned, but from my perspective it fits perfectly with Zone being a wolf with cloned, because it would indicate a wolf agreeing with a villager, then being followed by other villagers (if Marl is right on City and min), and then unvoting probably because the wolves didn’t want to bus.

sorry if the formatting is a little wonky, I tried to restructure what I wrote in my notes when i was half-asleep but that’s basically the gist of it

obviously this doesn’t work as an analysis if either zone or cloned is a villager, because then this post is just garbage.

#6842

a more reasonable Seth :joy_cat:

yeah but i’ve also seen Seth scrape by in wolfgames specifically because he’s so irritating that people don’t look past his Seth meta (I’m guilty of missing the signs in our last game together).

#6843

Yes, and yet I cannot accept that…

I stopped my push on Clown after she claimed Vig, and everyone other than Nuclear scumread Pigeon, especially Clownzu.

The only blame I’ll take for making the wrong push is the one on Marl.