im having doubts about this
since itās like a 33% chance you can reveal the doctor and just not have anything useful
Windās N3 thoughts:
Iām writing this under the assumption that I probably donāt die tonight, because I still donāt think Iām the optimal vig shot despite the Whysper flip, and the wolves will just let me get pushed tomorrow because itās easy and obvious. Iāve flipped a whole bunch of slots around in my reads because of Whysper, which now means that nobody is in my ādefinitely want to see this deadā list, but a different set of slots are at or below null now. The gaps between my read tiers have closed somewhat because Iām less certain of my townreads, and January is now my top townread (sorry Marl, youāve been overtaken).
Spoilering the following analyses because they got very long. I didnāt group them by association reads; I just didnāt think to spoiler them when I drafted this so the paragraphs were supposed to flow together. But I didnāt want this to look ugly and deter people from reading it.
Marl and Vulgard
I rescind my hard townreads on Marl and Vulgard because I think one of them may be a wolf. I didnāt really have a hard townread on Vulgard at any point, but at SoD2 he seemed towny in his reevaluation of Marl than not (although it could be a pocket attempt). He was a bit dismissive of my slot and just said Iām probably town for the Silviu push, though, which doesnāt tell me too much else about why he reads me as town. Anyway, they both just went with my Whysper push despite thinking I was incorrect on Silviu the day before. Iāve been shakier on my Vulgard read than my Marl read this whole game, but Iām going to admit that I could be wrong on either one of them at this point. I donāt really think anyone who was pushing on Marl D1 is a wolf with him because they couldāve easily let Leafia flip, and I also still donāt think wagonomics point to Marl being a wolf in the first place. But that means Vulgard is probably a wolf and at the same time, I feel like thatās a low-effort and bad conclusion because itās reading his slot off someone elseās and not for its own content, so I owe him a thorough read at this point. I do think he dropped off a bit in effort once the yeet was set on Whysper for the day, but I donāt really know if thatās indicative of anything? I also feel like heās being weirdly cautious and maybe pockety, but Iād need to bounce some thoughts off of him toDay to get a better read on him.
Thread control
If neither Marl or Vulgard are wolves, and I know I am not a wolf (even if some of you think I am by now), whoās the strong wolf with the thread control? January? Nuclear? January has a lot of one-liners and is the top poster, but doesnāt necessarily have the most influence, although they do have a lot of interactions going on which honestly is a good look. Nuclear isnāt a top poster and doesnāt have much influence, but has thread presence and I think sheās a bit of a wild card at this point. Min has a lot of posts but I donāt think they really have thread control, and quite frankly if nobody is listening to them at this point, they might just be town. Zone has thread presence and interactions, but I donāt see anyone sheeping him, either, and it looks like heās actually listening to peopleās opinions.
January and Nuclear
January and Nuclear have a heck of a lot of thread presence, but while January has been picking fights, I canāt really say any of their behavior has been scummy (except maybe that one post they made at EoD2 right before Whysper flipped). Nuclear, on the other hand, has just been objectively scummy and also been attracting a lot of attention, similarly to January. But Nuclear is getting cleared for being chaotic and too wolfy to be a wolf (at least I think thatās what was said), which is not as good of a clear as having lots of interactions. While January is giving a read and then debating it with people, Nuclear is giving a read and then immediately saying that nobody is going to listen to her even though sheās probably right, and her interactions consist of just pushing her reads and then voting with the consensus anyway. It isnāt scummy in itself, but itās definitely very different from the way January has been tackling interactions.
January is getting cleared for picking fights, which is not really in the category of TWTBAW, but they did draw attention to Eli on D1 when nobody else even entertained the thought of Eli being scum, and a wolf would have no reason to do this regardless of Eliās alignment imo. Leafia was already becoming a consensus scumread pretty early, and the wolves would likely have wanted to let it roll. Cloned was under scrutiny for his horrible āthese three players are probably wolves but also not really because Iām usually wrongā post, and if heās town then thereās no way wolves wouldāve wanted to draw attention away from that. (Also I donāt think January/Cloned are ever a team.)
The thing is that as annoyingly aggressive as January has been in this game, theyāve been drawing attention to various slots as well as to themselves, whereas Nuclear has been drawing attention to herself and not really to the slots sheās been pushing (note how I said at some point that her CFDs didnāt really hold water because nobody followed them on D1, and again nobody followed them on D2). She makes reads, pushes those reads, finds someone to potentially blame if sheās wrong, then votes with consensus and also says itās going to be wrong but it isnāt her fault. So to compare the two, January is higher in my reads than Nuclear, and itās possible Iāve been misclearing Nuclear. (Weirdly enough I want to say that if Nuclear is scum itās very possible sheās teamed with Vulgard, but I donāt think this is a definite, either.)
Nuclear and min
I didnāt like that Nuclear and min were clowning around voting each other right at EoD, and I do agree that Nuclear trying to start a CFD looked opportunistic. On the other hand, I canāt shake the feeling that sheās telling the truth about making an effort to solve the game when so many other slots arenāt, but itās also admittedly a good cover for a powerwolf to use (the good olā āwhy would I say this as a wolf?ā argument). I went the entirety of D1 and half of D2 thinking she was a town PR until she claimed VT, so I really donāt know how that factors into my read on her now. It means Iāve dropped the shield on her but I donāt think reading her off her posts has been so different? Anyway thereās probably not a high chance that Nuclear and min are both wolves because I donāt know what the purpose of sudden scum theatre at EoD would be when the yeet was sitting squarely on Whysper. Itās unnecessary when a town wagon is the decided yeet, as Nuclear herself pointed out.
min
Speaking of min, I thought they might be scum with Whysper, but that proved to be impossible. I also thought earlier that there was a low chance theyāre scum with Marl, but I donāt really think theyād townread Marl so much if they were partnered, especially since their townread on Whysper proved to actually be correct. It was more just Marlās brief mentioning of thinking min might be scum and then min not reacting at all to it that made me entertain the possibility, but I donāt even know if min saw that post and Marl has since said min is town. Iām not sure what changed his mind and Iād like to hear his reasoning anyway, because min is just sitting at a null for me at the moment. One thing off the top of my head that points in minās favor is what I said above - that min has a lot of posts and has been giving reads and thoughts, but doesnāt have a lot of thread control or influence. I find it to be >rand town indicative if thatās the only thing Iām looking at, and honestly I havenāt looked much at their slot.
pigeon
I didnāt like the pigeon wagon because I thought it was a town wagon building up to offer a chance for wolves to get the votes off of Whysper, but as Nuclear said (again), the Whysper wagon was decided and also very stagnant. Iāve seen wagons on wolves go stagnant halfway before EoD so itās not always true that the wagonomics are indicative of town, but at any rate this means pigeon isnāt cleared. Iām going to have to actually read his slot for its individual value and see if I can get some more interactions out of him because Iāve found it a bit hard to catch him in the thread for questions. Iāve never personally played with him before, so there are players in this game who have more experience with him than I do and Iād also like their opinions. Clownzu is never a wolf with pigeon because thatās literally been her only push.
cloned
Literally nothing looks good for cloned right now because I only thought he would be cleared if Whysper flipped scum, and she did not. Heās not wolf with Marl but I am still not very convinced that Marl is a wolf, even if Iām having serious paranoia right now on his slot along with everyone elseās. Cloned is also not wolf with min, and obviously was not a wolf with Whysper which is what we all figured out already. Aside from association reads, his SoD1 was bad and I agreed with min on that. His EoD1 did not look great as I recall, either. His SoD2 was equally bad because he just started off voting Marl and shading me, also saying Whysper seemed wolfy but he wouldnāt vote her because he had doubts about me. Now that I know Whysper and I were v/v it just looks like blatant setup which Iām not a fan of, and which imo resembles what he did in Warrior Cats where he shaded my slot without really pushing it. Straight PoE for me toDay and a priority slot for me to solve, because the only thing I thought looked towny was his squabble with January, but over half the playerlist has argued with January over something or another and at this point at least one of them must be a wolf just out of statistics. Itās to the point where nobodyās interactions with January can be seen as clearing lol.
Clownzu and City
Clownzu and City, upon reading through their ISOs during the Day phase, were not really wolfy. I donāt think giving opinions without explanations or sheeping reads are wolfy things to do, and really depend on individual playstyle. Iām actually very sure City is town, regardless of Marlās and Vulgardās flips, so Iām never voting there. I donāt really know how to explain it but I think I know who they are and by meta they are town. Even without knowing their meta I would say some of their posts have a lot more town merit than wolf merit. Clownzu on the other hand, I have never played with before, but I think the way sheās been playing the game is not wolfy and makes for an easy LHF. I think if sheās town, pigeon is likely scum, and it also makes Vulgard and Zone look worse.
Zone
So far I donāt think Zone is scum. Itās not the strongest read; I get exactly why Marl thinks heās wolfing, and itās because heās not making waves and causing chaos. But given that Zone announced in signups that he was going to change his playstyle, Iām not thinking so much about how heās playing, as I am about why heās doing certain things and what heās getting out of it. I do think heās analyzing the interactions he has, because heās been reevaluating consistently after any interactions that give him something to reconsider. Iāve only been in one game where he was a wolf, and I wolfed with him, but we didnāt rand wolf until D4 because it was Quantum Mafia and I was just trying to avoid drawing attention to myself because it was my first wolfgame. I didnāt pay so much attention to what Zone was doing in there other than that he had thread control and seemed to be mimicking his usual meta pretty well, so maybe I need to examine his slot closer, but i have some other slots I want to look at first before I get around to his.
Eli
I didnāt realize until I formatted this post that I completely forgot to write anything at all on Eliās slot. What I have so far on him is just surface-level analysis, and Iām not reading him off post count so I really donāt care how much heās posted. I care about his live interactions in the thread because while itās true he doesnāt pay much attention to the game as town because his WiM drops, he can very easily do it as scum as well. He started off the game posting a lot of his thoughts, which January immediately called wolfy because he looked like a tryhard. Aelin countered this by saying that Eli never does it as a wolf, and I was inclined to say roughly the same thing (not because of tryharding but because of the level of thought he gave). January started a dispute with Aelin over it and I ended up thinking both were town and was still more inclined to agree with Aelin on Eliās slot, but not enough to entirely clear him. At this point in the game, heās gone back to not really existing in the thread and not saying much, which is pretty NAI for him, meaning that heās still not being wolfy but heās also slipping out of a townclear because heās just not doing anything at all. I usually get a better read on him once heās in the thread at the same time and interacting with people, and thatās mostly what Iāve been waiting for. I havenāt been ignoring his slot although I am guilty of forgetting about it entirely but I have to see him interact with the playerlist more or I will not have any sort of confident read on him. I know other people have way more experience with him, but Iād rather trust my own evaluation, so whenever he shows up next, itās question time (I would actually appreciate getting pinged when heās in the thread for long enough to answer questions, but I doubt heās going to read this post so kek). Also, as far as association reads go, Eli is never wolf with January, Iām sure of that. Not a very useful read since I think we all concluded that already.
The deaths tonight will give me more insight on who the wolfteam might be because there arenāt very many consensus townreads (actually might be only January) and I was purposely trying to bait a kill, which was mainly under the assumption Whysper flipped scum, but since she flipped town I guess Nuclear was right and the wolves are just never going to kill me lol.
I already know who isnāt the vig but I will not say who I believe the vig is and let them out themselves if they choose to. I thought it was someone who was townreading me so I just assumed Iād never get shot by them, and was hoping it would be reason enough for the wolves to want me out especially if I could claim a pelt before that and spew myself clear.
If thereās no shot and someone opens the day by claiming to be the vig and also claiming to be roleblocked, donāt blindly trust them. Wolves have a roleblocker who is not required to act compulsively, meaning that they could simply choose to holster the RB and wait to see if there actually is a shot. If they donāt see one, it means Aelin was the vig and itās now a free fakeclaim. (I was really strongly hoping Aelin was only providing light cover for the vig, so thatās why I was pretending to assume the vig was still alive in my posts - because forcing the wolves to pick a target to roleblock means they canāt be certain whether the vig is dead or not.)
On the topic of PRs, I fully agree with Marl that a massclaim is in order. I believe at least one of the LHF slots is a PR, if not two, and claiming will clear them from remaining in the PoE. I already claimed yesterDay that Iām VT, and Iām not rescinding that. Iād very much rather not get misyeeted because I enjoy solving, as much as I complain about the game, but itās not the end of the world if I get pushed, as long as we arenāt in LyLo. If you guys as a majority think that Iām a wolf, Iād rather you resolve my slot long before the endgame.
Anyway, my current priority slots to thoroughly read through are:
Vulgard/Nuclear/pigeon/cloned
and once Iāve solved those slots, Iāll move onto reading the next set of slots:
Min/Eli/Zone
If you have any questions, comments, want to agree or want to debate, have at it. Iām all ears and Iād like to get some interaction going ASAP. Iām generally fairly afk on weekends because Iām doing outdoor activities, but Iāll still try to interact as much as I can when Iām around. Ping me if you want to guarantee that I see your post since Iāve been having issues with loading the forum posts lately. Iām a bit busy right now so Iām just dropping this post and afkāing for a bit.
we cannot proceed until you claim because if you are mafia you can claim a pr of a dead town
I see one slot in my inner PoE is dead and one slot in my nulls is dead so thatās slightly less work for me
Iām at a friendās place rn so I canāt backread just yet but Iāll get to it
2/3rds of the mafia always donāt visit, roleblocker should be able to perform both factional and his role
so itās not a pure green check but itās something to keep in mind
at one point you were like āunless youāre actually the MDā so i was like āwelp i guess im the MD nowā lol
You didnāt do anything that sounded like MD though
That was literally just because I donāt know what you are and Iām not the best at PR reads
I will let people know this, there are no mafia in Nuclear/Cloned/Min/City
Iām killing a spicy group today