Possibly one more if we mislynch someone who is already doused
Thankfully we don’t instantly lose with 1 mislynch like in SFoL 53
Alright, let me run some numbers.
Current towncore is basically agreed to be me/{Marshal/Maxwell}/Kai/Hja/Vul/Sulit, i.e. 6 people. If we assume we haven’t miscleared anyone and that the wolves only kill in that category, that leaves 6 towncore, 9 non-towncore, of which (we’re assuming) 3 are wolves. So basically…
D1: 6+6v3
if we mislynch:
D2: 6{5/1}+5v3
if we mislynch again:
D3: 6{4/2}+4v3
if we mislynch again:
D4: 6{3/3}+3v3
if we mislynch yet again:
D5: 6{2/4}+2v3 (this is LyLo; in the scenario where the wolves nuke the towncore it’s a 4v3, in the scenario where they don’t it’s an 8v3).
It’s at least moderately plausible that wolves ignite at some point before that, not going to discuss pros and cons of when to ignite vs. when to not ignite as that basically just gives the wolves ideas.
If we can clear 2 more people, and we don’t misclear anyone, then the wolves can’t win – they need 5 mislynches to win if I’ve done the math right, and that’ll take them down to 4 mislynchable people.
If we lynch every day, the wolves can’t win the game without at least five mislynches, period. That’s what I said
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And that’s only if no one that gets mislynched has been doused
Every one of those requires an extra mislynch for them should they occur
VFM is usually heavily townsided
at least when town don’t sit on their asses the whole game and actually work like they’re supposed to
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But yes, 12 v 3 is very rough for mafia
Champs on MU was hosted in 13 v 4 which I believe was better balanced
Arso brings mind games and other things into play but in the end maf just has the same KP as a normal maf, and can end up with even less if a doused person gets mislynched.
If we can correctly lynch today:
D1: 6+6v3
due to the lynch being correct, this brings us to:
D2: 6{5/1}+6v2
if we mislynch:
D3: 6{4/2}+5v2
if we mislynch again:
D4: 6{3/3}+4v2
if we mislynch a third time:
D5: 6{2/4}+3v2
if we mislynch a fourth time:
D6: 6{1/5}+2v2
This once again might be in practice a 1+2v2.
If icibalus is mafia the game is already over
or at least it really should be
to collapse out of a 12v2 advantage would be baffling
how are your reads most different if ici flips scum versus town?
we’re at l-2, just fyi. sulit got it right
Kai iso incoming