[VFM] Mountainous Arson - (12/15) - Completed - Town Wins

[Shurian]

Crunching popcorn.

[eevee]

@Emilia

guess we can clear maxwell/arete/jake for that flip and maybe even geyde/maxi

…

what?

[Arete]

Leaning towards Maxi and Jake being spewed V by Ici, neither of those pushes felt bus-y.

[Maxwell]

The only person who is cleared 100% definitively IMO is jake.

[Emilia]

for ici flip

[Maxwell]

Also, for everyone’s reference, here is the one and only time this setup was run before, back last November on MU: https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/19706-Mountainous-Arson
The last mafia member resigned after the second was lynched day 5 and they were the only player left alive not on that person’s wagon.

[eevee]

@Emilia

for ici flip

That much I understand, that doesn’t really explain it tho.

[Geyde]

When Ici was lynched:

• There were very easy pushes alive to choose like Magnus/Jake.
• There were also several players willing to go onto my slot (namely Maxwell, Sulit, and Vulgard).
• Some people voted Ici out of necessity to avoid a no lynch (Maxwell/Sulit)

In order for that lynch on Ici to actually go through, scum had to have not had much control on thread direction (ergo lowposters or people without a large stake in thread already).

This is why I want to focus on Shuri/Kyo/Magnus/Alice as priorities
They fit the bill for scum not in control of thread direction the best out of anyone alive

[Emilia]

rip

[Maxwell]

I was also wrong in my initial analysis of this setup: Apparently normal 11v2 mountainous is considered to be about 60% mafia sided, and this setup even more so (~70-80%)

[Geyde]

I’m just going to be posting all the stuff I worked on over the night

[Emilia]

maxwell and arete for pushing him jake since he was tunneling him

[Arete]

Current towncore FMPOV at the moment based on Ici’s flip is me/Hja/Maxwell’s slot/Vul/Kai/Sulit/Maxi/Jake

This leaves the PoE at Geyde/Kyo/Alice/Shurian/Eevee/Magnus

If I haven’t miscleared anyone, then my PoE contains 4 town and 2 Mafia. Mafia need to get 5 mislynches to win, so.

[Maxwell]

I have never played as mafia on MU and have also never lost there, so I guess I’m not that experienced in how setups like VFM or similar to VFM end up a majority of the time. I heard mafia only lost one game in championships this past year.

[Arete]

Do you see Kyo/Alice/Ici as a viable scumteam?

[Geyde]

I’m basing a lot of my associative reads off of the notion that Ici avoids interacting with his partners at any meaningful level unless he absolutely has to (SFoL 49 and TvB with Math/Htm and Baz, respectively)

Real possibility it was a bus on both sides because Ici defaulted to voting Jake only when Maxi wasn’t working, and their shift to Jake came and went in the span of one post.

Eevee’s slot is good in my mind not because of their interactions with Ici, but for the fact that they were both pushing Vul at the same time and had vastly different thread movement in doing so.
Eevee kept pushing Vul far after Ici did the equivalent of skedaddling after knowing push wouldn’t go through, and they had entirely different perspectives on interacting with Vul (Ici wanted to push it to lynch, Eevee wanted to push it for science)
It’s because of this interaction and the general inclination for scumpartners to not buddy up that I feel fairly confident in townleaning Eevee’s slot.

Maxi was the preferred lynch for Ici, so it’s pretty obvious where that’s headed (v)
Moreover, he occupied the “he’s only scum if the scumteam are treating him like Solic SFoL 53 deal” space in my mind.

[Geyde]

Ici/Alice is a lot deeper than I initially thought
I’m leaning more on Ici/Alice/Magnus than Ici/Alice/Kyo though

[Geyde]

@Arete

This leaves the PoE at Geyde/Kyo/Alice/Shurian/Eevee/Magnus

Ici tried pocketing me

[Arete]

The big thing pinging me with Ici/Alice is Alice’s catch-up post – she talks about how much she wants to lynch him, but then spends the rest of the thread totally ignoring his existence.

[Geyde]

@Icibalus

And I generally know how people interact with people who are at a simmilar experience level as her. If you were a wolf with her, you’d feel the need to create a v read and justify it repeatedly, wouldn’t you, because she has high thread presence and powerwolfs.

This is just logic. The wolves have to villageread at least one other wolf or they lose, and they’re bound to strongly villageread their strongest wolf, which is something that’s not happening here. How many people are in the wings hard-villagereading Alice whenever somebody suggests she’s null?

in retrospect
vv

@Icibalus

I’m going to try and do a Geyde and do a thread tempo read: The way the thread moves around Alice indicates she’s probably a villager. I get the sense looking at her and how the thread talks about her that the wolves have decided not to push her and are just putting her on a shelf for later, if that makes sense.

Seriously, does it? help i feel like this read’s too simplistic

@Icibalus

yeah but think about it
everybody just talks about Alice and then quickly stops

@Icibalus

Not you, obviously, but there’s a lot of cases where people are like “oh yeah Alice! yeah she exists! She might be v!” and then move on.

@Icibalus

I disagree. Even inactive Alice is talked about when she’s a wolf, because the wolves feel the need to get around to reading all their partners.

@Icibalus

Tell me, Maxwell, how would you interact with Alice if you were on a wolfteam with her?

Alice w feels very reasonable to say in the context of Ici’s flip